Important Coronavirus Model Lowers Projected Deaths In One State By More Than 70 Percent

Townhall ^ | 04/19/2020 | Bronson Stocking

[SeekAndFind]

A coronavirus model used by the White House Coronavirus Task Force has once again lowered the number of projected deaths in the United States. While the model forecasts a higher number of deaths in places like New York and New Jersey, the model now sees a much lower number of deaths happening in places like Massachusetts and Florida. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida was sharply criticized for not locking down the state fast enough. 

Scientists at the University of Washington developed the "Murray Model," named after Dr. Christopher Murray, that has been cited routinely by White House officials over the course of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic. Instead of 68,841 expected deaths in the U.S., with a range of 30,188 to 175,965, the revised model now forecasts 60,308 deaths, with a range of 34,063 to 140,381. 

"We try to take into account all the data that is coming in from all the states and so all of our numbers are going to be revised as we see progress faster or slower. But, overall, we think that the general trend that we’ve seen since the beginning is a range between 40,000 to 150,000 deaths being where we’ll fallout for the country come June," Dr. Murray told Fox News on Friday.

In an interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper, Dr. Murray said the number of expected deaths is much lower despite the peak of the outbreak in places like New York lasting longer than scientists originally anticipated. But overall, the number of deaths in the U.S. was revised downward as a result of lower-than-expected deaths in states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, Georgia and Florida. 

Earlier this week, the Murray Model estimated 4,748 Floridians would die from the virus by the end of summer. Now, the model predicts 1,363 Floridians will succumb to the Wuhan coronavirus. The revision represents a reduction of more than 70 percent. Experts and pundits were quick to criticize Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and warned of a catastrophic death toll due to the governor's decision to wait until early April to close down the state. DeSantis was hesitant to close the entire state, citing various negative impacts of doing so, but schools were closed in mid-March and some local jurisdictions instituted their own stay-at-home orders before the statewide orders took effect. 

[lilypad]

DeSantis is getting hammered about not wearing his mask right . I had to remind people about who could of been our governor (Gillum) who just had a big scandal with meth, a gay escort, naked and vomiting in a hotel room in Orlando.

[Starboard]

I shudder to think what the numbers would have looked like had Trump not imposed the travel bans when he did. For that act alone, the nation should be forever gratful to him.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Here's my shocked face 😯

[Bernard]

Considering that Thomas Edison failed 1,000 times before successfully making a light bulb that worked, these theoretical scientists who have to make real-world predictions and models that actually work instead of just being quoted by other classroom warriors are still ahead of the game. And in front of the TV cameras.

[SeekAndFind]

Here is what Michael Fumento wrote on Issues and Insights ( Excerpt below )

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/18/after-repeated-failures-its-time-to-permanently-dump-epidemic-models/

(EXCERPT)

Since the AIDS epidemic, people have been pumping out such models with often incredible figures. For AIDS, the Public Health Service announced (without documenting) there would be 450,000 cases by the end of 1993, with 100,000 in that year alone. The media faithfully parroted it. There were 17,325 by the end of that year, with about 5,000 in 1993. SARS (2002-2003) was supposed to kill perhaps “millions,” based on analyses. It killed 744 before disappearing.

Later, avian flu strain A/H5N1, “even in the best-case scenarios” was to “cause 2 (million) to 7 million deaths” worldwide. A British professor named Neil Ferguson scaled that up to 200 million. It killed 440. This same Ferguson in 2002 had projected 50-50,000 deaths from so-called “Mad Cow Disease.” On its face, what possible good is a spread that large? (We shall return to this.) But the final toll was slightly over 200.

In the current crisis the most alarming model, nay probably the most influential in the implementation of the draconian quarantines worldwide, projected a maximum of 2.2 million American deaths and 550,000 United Kingdom deaths unless there were severe restrictions for 18 months or until a vaccine was developed. The primary author: Neil Ferguson. Right, Mad Cow/Avian Flu Fergie.

Then a funny thing happened. A mere nine days after announcing his model, Ferguson said a better number for the U.K. would be only 20,000. The equivalent would be fewer than 80,000 American deaths. Technically, that U.K. number was buried in a table in the report under what might be called “a fantastic case scenario.” But could that reduction possibly reflect a mere nine days of restrictions? No.

Soon all the numbers were tumbling. Yet as late as March 31, the New York Times declared: “White House Projects Grim Toll from Virus” citing White House Coronavirus Task Force head Deborah Birx and director of the National Institutes of Allergies and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci, who in turn cited a model showing deaths up to 240,000. Still awful, but Birx explicitly backed off the Ferguson projection for which she had previously been the Grey Lady’s pompom girl.

Then suddenly Fauci announced a flat figure of “more like 60,000,” the same number the CDC says died of flu two years ago. Probably not coincidentally, until quite recently the agency said there were 80,000 flu victims that year, before lowering it to 61,000 – presumably because people were using that figure to compare to COVID-19 deaths. In any event, the 1968-1969 “Hong Kong flu” killed an estimated 100,000 Americans, or 165,000 adjusted to today’s population.

Moreover, as noted, the CDC now encourages coding a death of anyone “if the circumstances are compelling” even though they haven’t been tested at all. Yeah, wow; it’s not a “conservative myth.” During flu season, that means a lot of flu victims have magically become COVID-19 victims in addition to people who would have otherwise had cause of death listed as heart attack, diabetes, and other co-morbid conditions.

One reason Italy had so many “coronavirus deaths” seems to be coding, even though it’s still far more strict than the new CDC guidelines. Re-evaluation of death certificates by the country’s National Institute of Health showed only “12% with direct causality from coronavirus, while 88% of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three.”

[tennmountainman]

Dr Death Fauci and the “Scarf” Brix fake models killed our economy.

[missnry]

We need to demand the release of the MEDICATION REGIMEN of those who are “recovering.” Why is this most important aspect of “knocking down” the virus as quickly as possible not part of the daily briefing? You can take anecdotal and non anecdotal together and form your own opinions on the data. Make this data available and that can show us where all the lefty doctors who refuse the Plaquenil treatment are located.

[The Great RJ]

I hope this corona crisis is the end of using dubious models to make policy decisions instead of common sense. Look at your local TV weather forecast and how they use a variety of models to predict the weather. The models seldom agree and vary widely. The models cannot give some kind of consistent and reasonably correct prediction of the weather 48 hours or even 24 hours in advance.

[Strident]

this. “during flu season, . . . flu victims have . . . become COVID-19 victims in addition . . . cause of death listed as heart attack, diabetes, and other co-morbid conditions.”

Been asking this question for a few weeks. It’s not trying to minimize things, it’s trying to understand the data.

Couple this with recent CDC stats that overall raw mortality is down ( all causes ).

So how to estimate the true value and impact of mitigation? Too late for that.

Mortality from MVAs down due to no traffic
Elective procedure mishaps, down
What else, normal fluctuation in underlying disease prevalence?

I guess we’ll never know.

But the to me good news is in the reports of widespread ( 33% in Chelsea MA, 50% homeless in Boston ) CV-19 antibodies in the general pop.

So did we freak out and gravely weaken our economy and liberties with an over-reaction? Was this over-reaction amplified by poor understanding of overall mortality and cause-of-death coding?

Smarter minds than mine will have to answer.

Someday we need to know.

[logi_cal869]

Drink the Kool-Aid? Trump’s actions were on the basis of the hysterical recommendations of the evil duo Birx/Fauci who also support Covid Act Now. The ‘curve’ is being extended by their recommendations. It’s reckless and dangerous of unprecedented proportions.

The ‘curve’ is not about the deaths: It’s only about complications of infections, aka “hospitalizations”. The deaths were exaggerated to compel compliance via public fear/panic without martial law and, as many allege, drive an anti-Trump agenda. “Stay-at-home” only lengthens the term of the spread. Significantly.

The virus WILL KILL as many as it will kill and no intervention by humans will change that (vaccines in this respect are fantasy; some drug treatments may or may not have a significant impact).

It’s called Farr’s Law. Look it up.

https://medium.com/@davidpkirkpatrick/why-are-we-ignoring-farrs-law-of-epidemics-coronavirus-should-be-gone-by-summer-7782f3622c3a

[Buckeye McFrog]

And the hits just keep on coming from Bozo the Modeler.

[zeestephen]

Thanks for posting the Michael Fumento summary on COVID-19.

I vividly remember reading Fumento’s first bombshell essay against the utterly fraudulent numbers for “heterosexual AIDS.”

From memory, his first article appeared in Commentary magazine in the mid-1980s.

The sentiment then was identical to the sentiment now.

Millions of Americans had begun to disbelieve and attack the AIDS data being published by the CDC.

[null and void]

"Scientists at the University of Washington developed the "Murray Model," named after Dr. Christopher Murray,"

When Wuhan Lashes out
and just misses your snout
that's a Murray

sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[txrefugee]

Forevermore let it be taught that the Fauci-Brix Effect, based on their promotion of faulty computer models to induce panic, caused the greatest economic Depression in United States history and the most blatant attack on our Constitutional form of government.

If people were investigated to determine their culpability in causing the 1930s Depression, these partisan government hacks should certainly be investigated for colluding with the Leftist media to bring down our economy and our government. They are the domestic enemies the Constitution warns us about.

[Balding_Eagle]

Edison didn’t go around destroying peoples lives every time he failed.

[Abathar]

"When Wuhan Lashes out
and just misses your snout
that's a Murray"

Just...

*sigh*

[Kalija]

Virii, what has become of you. Parody to Pink Floyd “Vera”

[Starboard]

some drug treatments may or may not have a significant impact

**************

Currently true but the best minds and organizations in the world are in a race to find something that works. Effective treatments will be coming out within a matter of months and that will go a long way toward relieving some of the anxiety. People will feel more at ease when they know their infection can be cured. Vaccination is another story altogether but its probably not that far away either.

[billyboy15]

When it all washes out this will turn out to be the biggest hoax ever perpetrated upon the world. A population which has for years been dumbed down and robbed (willingly) of its ability to think critically and use even the tiniest amount of common sense, has allowed the destruction of as of now incalculable wealth. They did so by blindly following advice fro people who had a title conferring upon them medical abilities it turns out they never had.

As bad as it was that the world’s Lemmings eagerly followed each other over the cliff by nodding dumbly while those it the white coats claimed knowledge they never had.

Then as if that wasn’t bad enough we had all the Pearl Clutchers, plenty of them right here (you all know who you are) glooming and dooming day in and day out in an effort to panic and depress as many as they could. I guess misery loves company.

Where are they now?