Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

COVID-19 Update - 04/19/2020
My own workup | 04/19/2020 | DoughtyOne

Posted on 04/19/2020 3:01:47 AM PDT by DoughtyOne

PING LIST

Some of you have asked to be placed on the COVID-19 Update Ping List. Those who give me a
request, will be placed on the list before the next Update is posted.

If a person has expressed an appreciation for the data I'm presenting, I may add that
person to the Ping List.

Some folks don't like to be on ping lists, and I won't mind if you would rather I remove your name
from the list.


COVID-19 Update

As of 04/18/2020 23:59 PDST


Good morning everyone.

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.


Links to Data Sources Used to Create the COVID-19 Update: Located near the bottom of this post.


Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.


Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information0: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Not Much Going on This Morning

I'll save up and share some things with you tomorrow.


the Mortality Report


I am monitering the Mortality Rates Closer these days. I don't want to have
the numbers pull a u-turn on us, unless we know it's coming..

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

As you can tell, I'm trying to give the Global group some option, so that
we can see their data split out from the others. Notice I have it separated
from China at times, and also from the US too. I don't want our numbers to
wash up over the Global outside China numbers. We need to see what's going
on in other groups, so we can see if a trend is headed our way.

           	        global osChina osUS
                        .          Global osChina
DATE     the US         .          .      Global
-				
03/07        17        480        497      3,594
03/08        21        685        706      3,825
03/09 --     26 --     864 --     890 --   4,026
03/10        28      1,094      1,122      4,284
03/11        38      1,428      1,466      4,638
03/12 --     40 --   1,508 --   1,548 --   4,720
03/13        47      2,189      2,236      5,429
03/14        57      2,573      2,630      5,833
03/15 --     69 --   3,227 --   3,296 --   6,513
03/16        85      3,839      3,924      7,154
03/17       113      4,599      4,712      7,954
03/18 --    140 --   5,407 --   5,547 --   8,810
03/19       196      6,557      6,753     10,030
03/20       252      7,858      8,110     11,399
03/21 --    329 --   9,411 --   9,740 --  13,049
03/22       396     10,909     11,305     14,706
03/23       428     12,632     13,060     16,563
03/24 --    581 --  14,766 --  15,347 --  18,919
03/25       753     16,890     17,643     21,308
03/26     1,301     19,484     20,785     24,077
03/27 --  1,704 --  22,762 --  24,466 --  27,761
03/28     2,229     25,293     27,522     30,852
03/29     2,488     28,226     30,714     34,018
03/30 --  3,170 --  31,345 --  34,515 --  37,820
03/31     4,055     34,987     39,042     42,354
04/01     5,112     38,837     43,949     47,261
04/02 --  6,095 --  43,743 --  49,838 --  53,160
04/03     7,403     48,208     55,611     58,937
04/04     8,454     53,012     61,466     64,795
04/05 --  9,620 --  56,563 --  66,183 --  69,514
04/06    10,943     60,542     71,485     74,816
04/07    12,875     65,937     78,812     82,145
04/08 -- 14,797 --  70,417 --  85,214 --  88,549
04/09    16,691     75,718     92,409     95,745
04/10    18,747     80,667     99,414    102,753
04/11 -- 20,580 --  84,948 -- 105,528 -- 108,867
04/12    22,115     88,813    110,923    114,269
04/13    23,644     92,745    116,389    119,730
04/14 -- 26,064 -- 102,347 -- 123,411 -- 126,753
04/15    28,554    102,789    131,343    134,685
04/16    34,641    107,714    142,355    146,987
04/17    37,175    108,515    145,690    154,322
04/18    39,015    117,171    156,186    160,818

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks like we're not doing too bad, but the Global area ouside China seems

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

           	     global osChina osUS
                     .         Global osChina
DATE    the US       .         .    Global
-
03/08        4      205       209      231
03/09        5      179       184      201
03/10        2      230       232      258
03/11 --    10 --   334 --    344 --    54
03/12        2       80        82       82
03/13        7      681       688      709
03/14 --    10 --   384 --    394 --   404
03/15       12      654       666      680
03/16       16      612       628      641
03/17 --    28 --   760 --    788 --   800
03/18       27      808       835      856
03/19       56    1,150     1,206    1,220
03/20 --    56 -- 1,301 --  1,357 -- 1,369
03/21       77    1,553     1,630    1,650
03/22       67    1,498     1,565    1,657
03/23 --    32 -- 1,723 --  1,755 -- 1,857
03/24      153    2,134     2,287    2,356
03/25      172    2,124     2,296    2,389
03/26 --   548 -- 2,594 --  3,142 -- 2,769
03/27      403    3,278     3,681    3,684
03/28      525    2,531     3,056    3,091
03/29 --   259 -- 2,933 --  3,192 --   166
03/30      682    3,119     3,801    3,802
03/31      885    3,642     4,527    4,534
04/01 -- 1,057 -- 3,850 --  4,907 -- 4,907
04/02      983    4,906     5,889    5,899
04/03    1,308    4,465     5,773    5,777
04/04 -- 1,051 -- 4,804 --  5,855 -- 5,858
04/05    1,166    3,551     4,717    4,719
04/06    1,323    3,979     5,302    5,302
04/07 -- 1,932 -- 5,395 --  7,327 -- 7,329
04/08    1,922    4,480     6,402    6,404
04/09    1,894    5,301     7,195    7,196
04/10 -- 2,056 -- 4,949 --  7,005 -- 7,008
04/11    1,833    4,252     6,085    6,085
04/12    1,535    3,865     5,400    5,402
04/13 -- 1,529 -- 3,932 --  5,461 -- 5,461
04/14    2,420    4,602     7,022    7,023
04/15    2,490    5,442     7,932    7,932
04/16 -- 6,087 -- 4,925 -- 11,012   12,302
04/17    2,534      801     3,335    7,335
04/18    1,840    8,656    10,496    6,496

Here's the chart to go with it

The daily growth number there helps us look better, but the Global ares outside
China seems have hit a bump in the road. Looks like a big one.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

      EOD ACCUM     INCR
          DAILY     OVER     DAILY
          DEATH     PREV   PERCENT
DATE     TOTALS      DAY    GROWTH
-
03/14        57
03/15        69       12    21.05%
03/16        85       16    23.19%
03/17 --    113 --    28 -- 32.94%
03/18       140       27    23.89%
03/19       196       56    40.00%
03/20 --    252 --    56 -- 28.57%
03/21       329       77    30.56%
03/22       396       67    20.36%
03/23 --    428 --    32 --  8.08%
03/24       581      153    35.75%
03/25       753      172    29.60%
03/26 --  1,301 --   548 -- 72.78%
03/27     1,704      403    30.98%
03/28     2,229      525    30.81%
03/29 --  2,488 --   259 -- 11.62%
03/30     3,170      682    27.41%
03/31     4,055      885    27.92%
04/01 --  5,112 -- 1,057 -- 26.07%
04/02     6,095      983    19.23%
04/03     7,403    1,308    21.46%
04/04 --  8,454 -- 1,051 -- 14.20%
04/05     9,620    1,166    13.79%
04/06    10,943    1,323    13.75%
04/07 -- 12,875 -- 1,932 -- 17.66%
04/08    14,797    1,922    14.93%
04/09    16,691    1,894    12.80%
04/10 -- 18,747 -- 2,056 -- 12.32%
04/11    20,580    1,833     9.78%
04/12    22,115    1,535     7.46%
04/13 -- 23,644 -- 1,529 --  7.46%
04/14    26,064    2,420    10.24%
04/15    28,554    2,490     9.56%
04/16 -- 34,641 -- 6,087 -- 21.32%
04/17    37,175    2,534     7.32%
04/18    39,015    1,840     4.95%

This chart tracks the daily inrease over the previous day, in the middle
column there.

Would like to see us stick like this until things taper off.


The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America


Numbers, although high, went in the right direction yesterday.

Declared Cases in the United States

             EOD     DAY'S   INCR'SD
DATE       CASES     GRWTH    GROWTH
-
03/20     19,624     5,374       539
03/21     26,747     7,123     1,749
03/22     35,206     8,459     1,336
03/23 --  46,442 -- 11,236 --  2,777
03/24     54,893     8,789    -2,427
03/25     60,197    13,966     5,177        
03/26 --  85,991 -- 16,794 --  2,828
03/27    104,839    18,848     2,054
03/28    124,665    19,826       978
03/29 -- 143,025 -- 18,360 -- -1,466
03/30    164,620    21,595     3,235
03/31    189,624    25,004     3,409
04/01 -- 216,721 -- 27,097 --  2,093
04/02    245,559    28,838     1,741
04/03    278,458    32,899     4,061
04/04 -- 312,237 -- 33,779 --    899
04/05    337,638    25,401    -8,378
04/06    368,376    30,738     5,337
04/07 -- 399,929 -- 31,553 --    815
04/08    435,160    35,231     3,678
04/09    466,299    31,139    -4,092
04/10 -- 501,609 -- 35,310 --  4,171
04/11    529,951    28,342    -6,968
04/12    557,590    27,639      -703
04/13 -- 582,594 -- 25,004 -- -2,635
04/14    609,516    26,922     1,918
04/15    644,348    34,832     7,910
04/16 -- 678,210 -- 33,862 --    970
04/17    710,272    32,062    -1,800
04/18b   738,923    28,651    -3,411

Our new cases category fell off a bit yesterday. Hey, we'll take anything we
can get these days.


Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Heck, I'm tired just reading that list of stuff coming up!

                                         ACTIVE   SERIOUS
DATE       FATAL    RECOV     RESOLV      CASES  CRITICAL
-
03/20       252       152        404     19,220
03/21       329       176        505     26,242
03/22       396       178        574     34,632
03/23 --    428 --    178 --     606 --  45,836
03/24       581       354        935     54,296
03/25       753       619      1,372     67,825
03/26 --  1,301 --  1,868 --   3,169 --  82,822
03/27     1,704     2,622      4,326    100,513
03/28     2,229     3,231      5,460    119,205
03/29 --  2,488 --  4,562 --   7,050 -- 135,975
03/30     3,170     5,507      8,677    155,943
03/31     4,055     7,251     11,306    178,318 
04/01 --  5,112 --  8,878 --  13,990 -- 202,731 --  5,005
04/02     6,095    10,403     16,498    229,061     5,421
04/03     7,403    12,283     19,686    258,772     5,787
04/04 --  8,454 -- 14,825 --  23,279 -- 288,958 --  8,206
04/05     9,620    17,977     27,597    310,041     8,702    The 4th no
04/06    10,943    19,810     30,753    337,623     8,983   on the Left
04/07 -- 12,875 -- 22,711 --  34,586 -- 365,343 --  9,169    updated on
04/08    14,797    22,891     37,688    397,472     9,279         4/16
04/09    16,691    25,928     42,619    423,680    10,011    from 5,787
04/10 -- 18,747 -- 27,314 --  46,061 -- 455,548 -- 10,917     to 8,206
04/11    20,580    30,502     51,082    478,869    11,471  Presbyterian
04/12    22,115    32,634     54,749    502,841    11,766     Reporter
04/13 -- 23,644 -- 36,948 --  60,592 -- 522,002 -- 12,772     followed
04/14    26,046    38,820     64,884    544,632    13,473  more closely
04/15    28,554    48,708     77,262    567,086    13,487     early on
04/16 -- 34,641 -- 57,844 --  92,485 -- 585,725 -- 13,369
04/17    37,175    63,510    100,685    609,587    13,509
04/18    39,015    68,236    107,301    631,622    13,551
There's not much to say here. Numbers just keep getting larger. Sadly there
are fatalities with numbers larger than any of us wants.


Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

       DECLARED     DAY'S     ACTIVE     DAY'S
DATE      CASES      CHGE      CASES      CHGE
- 
03/20    7.125%    1.297%    10.934%    1.552%
03/21    8.704%    1.579%    13.000%    2.066%
03/22   10.377%    1.673%    15.343%    2.343%
03/23   12.170%    1.793%    17.411%    2.068%
03/24   13.053%    0.883%    18.369%    0.958%
03/25   14.657%    1.604%    20.190%    1.821%
03/26   16.140%    1.483%    21.454%    1.264%
03/27   17.530%    1.390%    22.920%    1.466%.  
03/28   18.742%    1.212%    24.126%    1.206%
03/29   19.762%    1.020%    25.289%    1.163%
03/30   20.936%    1.174%    26.777%    1.488%
03/31   22.045%    1.109%    27.885%    1.108%
04/01   23.110%    1.065%    29.120%    1.235%
04/02   24.160%    1.050%    30.482%    1.362%
04/03   24.886%    0.726%    31.057%    0.575%
04/04   25.935%    1.049%    32.400%    1.343%
04/05   26.464%    0.529%    32.866%    0.466%
04/06   27.324%    0.860%    34.153%    1.287%
04/07   27.930%    0.606%    34.854%    0.701%
04/08   28.634%    0.704%    36.125%    1.271%
04/09   29.091%    0.457%    36.790%    0.665%
04/10   29.523%    0.432%    37.363%    0.573%
04/11   29.812%    0.289%    37.872%    0.509%
04/12   30.124%    0.312%    38.500%    0.628%
04/13   30.332%    0.208%    38.714%    0.214%
04/14   30.537%    0.205%    39.364%    0.650%
04/15   30.888%    0.351%    39.489%    0.125%
04/16   31.024%    0.136%    39.416%   -0.073%
04/17   31.513%    0.489%    39.970%    0.554%
04/18   31.646%    0.133%    40.133%    0.163%

Growth in these areas rebounded yesterday. It's not quite as rosy as it
was the day before. That was a strange day though, to be sure.


The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China


When looking at this section, it almost looks as if some numbrs held off on the
day before and were dumped yesterday.

Here is the Cases Informaiton for the Global Outside China Territories

               EOD      DAY'S   INCR'SD
DATE         CASES     GROWTH    GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20      194,148     30,824     5,185
03/21      225,932     31,784       963
03/22      257,820     31,888       104
03/23      297,172     39,352     7,464
03/24      341,530     41,462     2,110
03/25      390,378     48,848     7,386
03/26      451,006     60,628    11,780
03/27      516,124     65,118     4,490
03/28      583,107     66,983     1,865
03/29      641,588     58,481    -8,502
03/30      704,051     62,463     3,982
03/31      777,887     73,836    11,373
04/01      855,389     77,502     3,666
04/02      933,937     78,548     1,046
04/03    1,036,395    102,458    23,910
04/04    1,121,349     84,954   -17,054
04/05    1,193.215     71,866   -13,088
04/06    1,265,487     72,272       386
04/07    1,349,117     83,630    11,358
04/08    1,436,669     87,552     3,922
04/09    1,519,961     83,292    -4,260
04/10    1,616,016     96,055    12,763
04/11    1,694,570     78,554   -17,501
04/12    1,767,831     73,261    -5,293
04/13    1,838,067     70,236    -3,025
04/14    1,912,638     74,571     4,335
04/15    2,003,756     91,118    16,547
04/16    2,103,357     99,601     8,483
04/17    2,171,190     67,833   -31,768
04/18    2,252,214     81,024    13,191

See that dip there in-between days. Kindof an odd reporting day.

Certainly glad to see that.


Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Crical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

                                               ACTIVE     SERIOUS
DATE       FATAL       RECOV      RESOLV        CASES    CRITICAL
-
03/20      8,110      16,393      24,503      169,645
03/21      9,740      19,995      29,735      196,197
03/22     11,305      25,485      36,790      221,030
03/23     13,060      28,470      41,530      258,538
03/24     15,347      35,256      50,603      290,927
03/25     17,643      40,467      58,210      332,168
03/26     20,785      48,084      68,869      382,137
03/27     24,466      56,801      81,267      434,857
03/28     27,522      64,777      92,299      490,808
03/29     30,714      76,342     107,056      534,532
03/30     34,515      89,989     124,504      579,547
03/31     39,052     102,121     141,163      636,724
04/01     43,949     118,092     162,041      693,348
04/02     49,838     135,204     185,042      748,895
04/03     55,611     150,014     205,625      839,770
04/04     61,466     170,309     231,775      889,574      41,993
04/05     66,183     185,921     252,104      941,111      45,633
04/06     71,485     208,635     280,120      985,367      47,201
04/07     78,812     224,264     303,076    1,046,041      47,743
04/08     85,214     253,546     338,760    1,097,909      47,990
04/09     92,409     278,059     370,468    1,149,493      49,001
04/10     99,443     299,451     398,894    1,217,122      49,692
04/11    105,528     326,847     432,375    1,262,195      50,485
04/12    110,928     352,960     463,888    1,303,943      50,735
04/13    116,389     375,551     491,940    1,346,127      51,035
04/14    128,411     407,858     531,269    1,381,369      51,490
04/15    131,343     437,452     568,795    1,434,961      51,043
04/16    142,355     475,102     617,457    1,485,900      56,510
04/17    149,690     497,480     647,120    1,524,070      57,049
04/18    156,186     523,252     679,439    1,572,775      55,186
There's just a lot going on out there.


How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without US numbers?

Take special note of the dip in the Global nubmers here. Nice!

                   Global (EC)         Global
           the           Minus      Excluding
-
          U. S.      the U. S.          China
03/29    19,826         38,955         58,481
03/30    21,595         40,868         62,463
03/31    25,004         48,832         73,836
04/01    27,097         50,405         77,502
04/02    28,838         49,710         78,548
04/03    32,899         69,559        102,458
04/04    33,843         51,111         84,954
04/05    25,401         46,465         71,866
04/06    30,738         41,534         72,272
04/07    31,553         52,077         83,630
04/08    35,231         52,321         87,552
04/09    31,139         52,153         83,292
04/10    35,310         60,745         96,055
04/11    28,342         50,212         78,554
04/12    27,639         45,622         73,261
04/13    25,004         45,323         70,236
04/14    26,922         47,649         74,571
04/15    34,832         56,286         91,118
04/16    33,862         65,739         99,601
04/17    32,082         35,771         67,833
04/18    28,651         52,373         81,024

Numbers not looking too good there.


Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

DATE       FRANCE      GERMANY        ITALY       SPAIN      The U K
-
02/20          12           16            3            2            9
02/25          14           18          322            9           13
03/01         100          117        1,128           76           36
03/06  --     653  --      670  --    4,636  --      401  --      164
03/11       2,284        1,966       12,462        2,277          459
03/16       6,650        7,272       27,980        9,942        1,553
03/21      14,485       22,364       53,578       25,496        5,067
03/26  --  29,566  --   43,938  --   80,589  --   57,786  --   11,812
03/31      52,819       68,180      105,792       94,417       25,481
04/05      93,780      100,123      128,948      131,646       44,440
04/10     125,931      122,171      147,577      158,273       74,605
04/15  -- 147,863  --  134,753  --  165,155  --  180,659  --   98,476
04/18     161,793      143,724      175,925      194,416      114,217 < 3 DAYS NOT FIVE
-
Deaths     19,323        4,538       23,227       20,639       15,464
-
Populace   66.274m      83.784m      60.462m      46.755m      67.886m
-
C P M 1m    2,441        1,715        2,910        4,158        1,682
-
D P M 1m      292           54          384          441          228      

Germany is looking pretty good there. They've kept their deaths down pretty
well.


Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

DATE       SWEDEN      DENMARK      FINLAND      NORWAY
-
02/21           1            0            1           0
02/26           2            0            1           1
03/02          15            4            6          25
03/07  --     161  --       27  --       19  --     156
03/12         599          617           59         702
03/17       1,196        1,024          321       1,471
03/22       1,934        1,514          626       2,385
03/27  --   3,069  --    2,700  --    1,041  --   3,771
04/01       4,947        3,290        1,446       4,877
04/06       7,206        4,875        2,176       5,865
04/11      10,151        6,191        2,905       6,409
04/16      12,640        6,879        3,369       6,950
04/18      13,822        7,242        3,681       7,000 < 2 days not five
-
Deaths      1,511          346           90         164
-
Populace   10.099m       5.792m       5.541m      5.421m
-
C P M 1m    1,369        1,250          664       1,304
-
D P M 1m      150           60           16          30          

Now while their case numbers don't look out of whack, I still can't figure out
why their rate of death is so much higher per million.

On the other hand, whatever Finland is doing, someone should can it and sell it.


The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China numbers make up 00.07% of today's cases globally


Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

 1 nation(s) with 700,000 plus (take a bow...)
 5 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999
 3 nation(s) with  50,000 to  99,999
 6 natiom(s) with  20,000 to  49,999
 9 nation(s) with  10,000 to  19,999
19 nation(s) with   5,000 to   9,999
35 nation(s) with   1,000 to   4,999

There are currently 78 nations with a 1,000 count or above...

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.


A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

           DECLAR     DAY'S  RESOLVED    DAY'S   PCT DEC      ACTIVE
DATE        CASES    GROWTH     CASES   GROWTH  CS RESOL       CASES
-
03/20 -   275,434 -  30,911 -  99,655 -  3,590 - 36.181% -   175,779
03/21     307,280    31,846   105,425    5,770   34.309%     201,855
03/22     339,259    31,979   113,540    8,115   33.467%     225,719
03/23 -   381,621 -  42,362 - 118,369 -  4,829 - 31.017% -   263,252
03/24     423,121    41,500   127,538    9,169   30.142%     295,583
03/25     472,109    48,998   136,178    8,640   28.845%     335,931
03/26 -   532,788 -  60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% -   386,039
03/27     598,070    65,282   159,533   12,784   26.675%     438,537
03/28     665,164    67,094   171,077   11,544   25.720%     494,087
03/29 -   723,740 -  58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% -   537,680
03/30     786,291    62,551   203,926   17,848   25.933%     582,383
03/31     860,181    73,890   220,713   16,085   25.659%     639,468
04/01 -   937,783 -  77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% -   696,192
04/02   1,016,401    78,618   264,935   23,344   26.066%     751,466
04/03   1,118,921   102,520   285,706   20,771   25.534%     833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 -  85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% -   891,855
04/05   1,275,856    71,933   332,513   20,445   26.062%     943,343
04/06   1,348,184    72,328   359,618   27,105   26.674%     988,566
04/07 - 1,431,900 -  83,716 - 383,688 - 24,070 - 26.796% - 1,048,212
04/08   1,519,478    87,848   419,465   35,777   27.606%   1,100,283
04/09   1,602,885    83,407   451,259   31,794   28.153%   1,151,626
04/10 - 1,699,019 -  96,134 - 479,758 - 28,499 - 28.237% - 1,219,261
04/11   1,777,666    78,647   513,239   33,481   28.872%   1,264,427
04/12   1,850,966    73,300   544,892   31,653   29.438%   1,306,074
04/13   1,921,369    70,403   573,019   28,127   29.823%   1,348,350
04/14 - 1,995,989 -  74,620 - 612,427 - 39,408 - 30.683% - 1,383,562
04/15   2,086,097    90,108   650,029   37,602   31.160%   1,436,068
04/16   2,186,049    99,952   700,033   50,004   32.023%   1,486,016
04/17   2,253,909    67,860   728,781   26,748   32.334%   1,525,128
04/18   2,334,949    81,040   761,133   32,352   32.5975   1,573,816

That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown 6.8% in the last two
weeks. That will impact our active cases.


Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

                                               ACTIVE     SERIOUS
DATE       FATAL       RECOV      RESOLV        CASES    CRITICAL
-
03/20     11,399      88,256      99,655      175,779
03/21     13,049      92,376     105,425      201,855
03/22     14,706      98,834     113,540      225,719
03/23     16,563     101,806     118,369      263,252
03/24     18,919     108,619     127,358      295,583
03/25     21,308     114,870     136,178      335,931
03/26     24,077     122,672     146,749      386,039
03/27     27,761     131,772     159,533      438,537
03/28     30,852     140,225     171,077      494,087
03/29     34,018     152,042     186,060      537,680
03/30     37,820     166,088     203,908      582,383
03/31     42,354     178,359     220,713      639,468
04/01     47,261     194,330     241,591      696,192
04/02     53,160     211,775     264,935      751,466
04/03     58,937     226,769     285,706      833,215
04/04     64,795     247,273     312,068      891,855      42,288  ch 295
04/05     69,514     262,999     332,513      943,343      45,898  ch 265
04/06     74,816     284,802     359,618      988,566      47,412  ch 211
04/07     82,145     301,543     383,688    1,048,212      47,932  ch 189
04/08     88,549     330,916     419,464    1,100,283      48,166  ch 176
04/09     95,475     355,514     451,259    1,151,626      49,145  ch 144
04/10    102,782     376,976     479,758    1,219,261      49,833  ch 141
04/11    108,867     404,372     513,239    1,264,427      50,624  ch 139
04/12    114,269     430,623     544,892    1,306,074      50,856  ch 121
04/13    119,730     453,289     573,019    1,348,350      51,151  ch 116
04/14    126,753     485,674     612,427    1,383,562      51,603  ch 113
04/15    134,685     515,344     650,029    1,436,068      51,138  ch  95
04/16    146,987     553,046     700,033    1,486,016      56,599  ch  89
04/17    154,332     574,459     728,781    1,525,128      57,134  ch  85
04/18    160,818     600,315     761,133    1,573,816      55,271  ch  85

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!


Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

                     1 CASE IN
                   THIS NUMBER                              CHANGE      CHANGE
                     OF PEOPLE                                  ON          ON
ENTITY                   04/18       04/17       04/16       04/18       04/17
-
Globally      :          4,942       5,100       5,234        -158        -134
Outside China :          4,945       5,104       5,235        -159        -131
The U. S. A.  :            524         543         565         -19         -22
-
               INFECTION LEVEL
                     OF ENTIRE                              CHANGE      CHANGE
                      POPULACE                                  ON          ON
ENTITY                   04/18       04/17       04/16       04/18       04/17
-
Globally      :       00.0202%    00.0196%    00.0192%    00.0006%    00.0004% 
Outside China :       00.0246%    00.0238%    00.0232%    00.0008%    00.0006% 
The U. S. A.  :       00.1908%    00.1842%    00.1770%    00.0064%    00.0072% 

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Wk/of      Tue      Wed      Thu      Fri      Sat      Sun      Mon
-
03/06    2,223    2,265    2,962    3,801    3,977    3,876    4,411  
03/13    4,411    4,680    2,085   17,028   11,031   13,847   12,158
03/20   15,748   20,668   25,700   30,911   31,846   31,979   42,362
03/27   41,500   48,988   60,679   65,282   67,094   58,576   62,551
04/03   73,890   77,602   78,618  102,520   85,002   71,933   72,328
04/10   72,328   87,578   83,407   96,134   78,647   73,300   70,403
04/17   74,620   90,108   99,952   67,860   81,040

Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.

I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.


States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Alphabetical & by Case Number
Idea of adding more informaton here, courtesy of Presbyterian Reporter

This little report now provides the number of cases and the deaths. I was going
to add more, but the data set I needed to pull this from, didn't provide that
information.. It's an alphabetical and cases by declining number file.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. Both the states and the counties
come on one Excell spreadsheet.

Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report just list the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. The States and Counties are
included on the same Excel spreadsheet.


Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.


This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...



Courtesy of: foldspace


Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.


Other Features:

LINK   US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
               
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases


Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   earlyAlert

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   World Health Organization


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid19
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-72 next last

1 posted on 04/19/2020 3:01:47 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Jim Robinson; AllAmericanGirl44; amorphous; A Navy Vet; Badboo; beef; Big Red Badger; bitt; ...
                       
2 posted on 04/19/2020 3:02:52 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Some of the folks around these parts have been sniffing super flu.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

The interesting thing to note is some 3/4 of the cases and deaths have been in ten states. Considering three of them are essentially ONE epidemic (Greater NYC) that is essentially 7 separate epidemics. All centered on a major urban area. Each of which may be well in decline.

As the virus continues to attenuate with passage the virus itself could become it’s own “vaccine”.


3 posted on 04/19/2020 3:37:24 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

Look at the “Top 20” counties. Only 5 are even out of the NYC area. There are many counties at the bottom that are so sporadic it’s like someone got infected somewhere else and just “wandered in”. Outside these urban centers it’s almost like there never was an epidemic. I don’t think anybody anticipated that. You almost had to assume there would be some “background” of cases homogeneously distributed throughout the country. But it turns out not to be true.


4 posted on 04/19/2020 3:53:30 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

https://finnishcrashcourse.wordpress.com/2016/02/16/personal-space/

Here’s your answer to the question “How is Finland different than Sweden or Norway?”. Note the photo “Finns at a bus stop”.


5 posted on 04/19/2020 3:56:24 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

Historically, I do believe the thing that is really necessary to note is prior to some two decades ago Coronavirus was never able to compete for human hosts with the other Respiratory Viral Illnesses. It just “didn’t have game”. Until they started tinkering with it in labs to create “Experimental Super Bugs” through Gain of Function. Looking back it is clear what has happened. Every two years for 20 years they have HAD outbreaks from these labs but these “Superbugs” attenuated so rapidly to the “natural state” of Coronavirus the epidemic never really gained enough steam to “reach escape velocity”.

It’s pretty clear Epidemiologists around the world realized all this so they just shrugged, “China’s problem.” The question is, “How is this time different than the previous ones?” Did “some Chinese” realize it was “their patriotic duty” to see to it that China doesn’t suffer alone? Did they do so spontaneously or was their some “Central Instruction”?


6 posted on 04/19/2020 4:37:01 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

...because what we are hearing is pretty disturbing. China quarantined Wuhan for all the rest of China but they let anyone who wanted to leave Wuhan fly to ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD.


7 posted on 04/19/2020 4:43:08 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

btt


8 posted on 04/19/2020 4:48:38 AM PDT by KSCITYBOY (The media is corrupt)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wastoute

No matter how you look at Sweden’s numbers/data over the past few weeks, they are faring significantly worse than their neighbors with regard to per capita cases and deaths. We shouldn’t look at their approach as ideal.


9 posted on 04/19/2020 4:54:56 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist (Government is best which governs least.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: BlueStateRightist

And of course it’s not, but I don’t anticipate Sweden’s #s will be as bad as they could be. All models assume the Ro that is due to the virus itself, not the environment would be stable. It obviously is a mistaken assumption. Look at the stories we initially heard from Wuhan. The First Generations of transmissions sounds like the Ro and CFR was horrific. Now the virus we have circulating is some 100 generations of transmission down the line. Another 50 to 100 transmissions and it should be even less. I do think Sweden will fare worse for the wear but not as bad as the “models” predict because the “model” starts from a mistaken assumption.


10 posted on 04/19/2020 5:00:11 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: wastoute
I do think Sweden will fare worse for the wear but not as bad as the “models” predict because the “model” starts from a mistaken assumption.

The Swedes have it right.

11 posted on 04/19/2020 5:04:06 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

Get back to work America end the madness. Stay inside if you are still concerned. STOP the CRAZY TRAIN!


12 posted on 04/19/2020 5:06:36 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: central_va

I don’t know that I would go that far. IMHO the Finns have it over everybody but then the price they pay is National Autism.


13 posted on 04/19/2020 5:09:32 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: central_va

Sounds like exactly what we are doing. I bet over 80% of the geographical land mass of the US can be at Phase Three in three weeks. Using the word “bet” rhetorically.


14 posted on 04/19/2020 5:11:54 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: wastoute

But for stupid Docs they should never have been in any phase WHAT SO EVER in most of the USA. But it has been easier to slap a one-size-fits-all lock down on all of us instead of using some common GD sense. Intellectual laziness and hard hardheadedness has killed our economy, but you Docs will still enjoy you lake side cabins this summer and spend time patting each other on the back, I am sure of it.


15 posted on 04/19/2020 5:22:29 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: central_va

Obviously, I don’t see it the way you do. I don’t think you could just assume that the virus was going to attenuate so rapidly that there was no reason to Stomp the Ro from 6 or so down to about 1.3. Sure just letting the virus run free is a strategy but that strategy ends up killing a lot more people than the strategy we have pursued and if the virus fights back and turns out to attenuate more slowly the difference in lives lost mounts up.

Probably the best way to consider this is that the US has had a NBC attack. We are doing our best to minimize the damage and recover. Are some people gonna be hurt more than others? Of course! Trump sure seems to be doing all he can to mitigate that “unfairness”. Trump sure seems driven to open up as much of the country as possible and as rapidly as possible.


16 posted on 04/19/2020 5:30:48 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: central_va

By the way, do you know of a hunting cabin for sale in the mountains? It might be fun to go dear hunting next fall.


17 posted on 04/19/2020 5:31:53 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: wastoute
Stomp the Ro from 6 or so down to about 1.3. Sure just letting the virus run free is a strategy but that strategy ends up killing a lot more people than the strategy we have pursued and if the virus fights back and turns out to attenuate more slowly the difference in lives lost mounts up.

Even now after we know what a complete disaster this theoretical "model" has been you are still being a dumba$$. We should have kept those at high risk separated from society and then DONE NOTHING ELSE.

18 posted on 04/19/2020 5:38:27 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: central_va

Name calling again.


19 posted on 04/19/2020 5:39:26 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: wastoute

We could pin horns on your hat and send you out into the woods for a walk.


20 posted on 04/19/2020 5:39:40 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-72 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson