Posted on 04/19/2020 3:01:47 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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COVID-19 Update
As of 04/18/2020 23:59 PDST
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Links to Data Sources Used to Create the COVID-19 Update: Located near the bottom of this post.
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information0: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Not Much Going on This Morning
I'll save up and share some things with you tomorrow.
the Mortality Report
I am monitering the Mortality Rates Closer these days. I don't want to have
the numbers pull a u-turn on us, unless we know it's coming..
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
As you can tell, I'm trying to give the Global group some option, so that
we can see their data split out from the others. Notice I have it separated
from China at times, and also from the US too. I don't want our numbers to
wash up over the Global outside China numbers. We need to see what's going
on in other groups, so we can see if a trend is headed our way.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/07 17 480 497 3,594
03/08 21 685 706 3,825
03/09 -- 26 -- 864 -- 890 -- 4,026
03/10 28 1,094 1,122 4,284
03/11 38 1,428 1,466 4,638
03/12 -- 40 -- 1,508 -- 1,548 -- 4,720
03/13 47 2,189 2,236 5,429
03/14 57 2,573 2,630 5,833
03/15 -- 69 -- 3,227 -- 3,296 -- 6,513
03/16 85 3,839 3,924 7,154
03/17 113 4,599 4,712 7,954
03/18 -- 140 -- 5,407 -- 5,547 -- 8,810
03/19 196 6,557 6,753 10,030
03/20 252 7,858 8,110 11,399
03/21 -- 329 -- 9,411 -- 9,740 -- 13,049
03/22 396 10,909 11,305 14,706
03/23 428 12,632 13,060 16,563
03/24 -- 581 -- 14,766 -- 15,347 -- 18,919
03/25 753 16,890 17,643 21,308
03/26 1,301 19,484 20,785 24,077
03/27 -- 1,704 -- 22,762 -- 24,466 -- 27,761
03/28 2,229 25,293 27,522 30,852
03/29 2,488 28,226 30,714 34,018
03/30 -- 3,170 -- 31,345 -- 34,515 -- 37,820
03/31 4,055 34,987 39,042 42,354
04/01 5,112 38,837 43,949 47,261
04/02 -- 6,095 -- 43,743 -- 49,838 -- 53,160
04/03 7,403 48,208 55,611 58,937
04/04 8,454 53,012 61,466 64,795
04/05 -- 9,620 -- 56,563 -- 66,183 -- 69,514
04/06 10,943 60,542 71,485 74,816
04/07 12,875 65,937 78,812 82,145
04/08 -- 14,797 -- 70,417 -- 85,214 -- 88,549
04/09 16,691 75,718 92,409 95,745
04/10 18,747 80,667 99,414 102,753
04/11 -- 20,580 -- 84,948 -- 105,528 -- 108,867
04/12 22,115 88,813 110,923 114,269
04/13 23,644 92,745 116,389 119,730
04/14 -- 26,064 -- 102,347 -- 123,411 -- 126,753
04/15 28,554 102,789 131,343 134,685
04/16 34,641 107,714 142,355 146,987
04/17 37,175 108,515 145,690 154,322
04/18 39,015 117,171 156,186 160,818
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Looks like we're not doing too bad, but the Global area ouside China seems
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/08 4 205 209 231
03/09 5 179 184 201
03/10 2 230 232 258
03/11 -- 10 -- 334 -- 344 -- 54
03/12 2 80 82 82
03/13 7 681 688 709
03/14 -- 10 -- 384 -- 394 -- 404
03/15 12 654 666 680
03/16 16 612 628 641
03/17 -- 28 -- 760 -- 788 -- 800
03/18 27 808 835 856
03/19 56 1,150 1,206 1,220
03/20 -- 56 -- 1,301 -- 1,357 -- 1,369
03/21 77 1,553 1,630 1,650
03/22 67 1,498 1,565 1,657
03/23 -- 32 -- 1,723 -- 1,755 -- 1,857
03/24 153 2,134 2,287 2,356
03/25 172 2,124 2,296 2,389
03/26 -- 548 -- 2,594 -- 3,142 -- 2,769
03/27 403 3,278 3,681 3,684
03/28 525 2,531 3,056 3,091
03/29 -- 259 -- 2,933 -- 3,192 -- 166
03/30 682 3,119 3,801 3,802
03/31 885 3,642 4,527 4,534
04/01 -- 1,057 -- 3,850 -- 4,907 -- 4,907
04/02 983 4,906 5,889 5,899
04/03 1,308 4,465 5,773 5,777
04/04 -- 1,051 -- 4,804 -- 5,855 -- 5,858
04/05 1,166 3,551 4,717 4,719
04/06 1,323 3,979 5,302 5,302
04/07 -- 1,932 -- 5,395 -- 7,327 -- 7,329
04/08 1,922 4,480 6,402 6,404
04/09 1,894 5,301 7,195 7,196
04/10 -- 2,056 -- 4,949 -- 7,005 -- 7,008
04/11 1,833 4,252 6,085 6,085
04/12 1,535 3,865 5,400 5,402
04/13 -- 1,529 -- 3,932 -- 5,461 -- 5,461
04/14 2,420 4,602 7,022 7,023
04/15 2,490 5,442 7,932 7,932
04/16 -- 6,087 -- 4,925 -- 11,012 12,302
04/17 2,534 801 3,335 7,335
04/18 1,840 8,656 10,496 6,496
Here's the chart to go with it
The daily growth number there helps us look better, but the Global ares outside
China seems have hit a bump in the road. Looks like a big one.
Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
EOD ACCUM INCR
DAILY OVER DAILY
DEATH PREV PERCENT
DATE TOTALS DAY GROWTH
-
03/14 57
03/15 69 12 21.05%
03/16 85 16 23.19%
03/17 -- 113 -- 28 -- 32.94%
03/18 140 27 23.89%
03/19 196 56 40.00%
03/20 -- 252 -- 56 -- 28.57%
03/21 329 77 30.56%
03/22 396 67 20.36%
03/23 -- 428 -- 32 -- 8.08%
03/24 581 153 35.75%
03/25 753 172 29.60%
03/26 -- 1,301 -- 548 -- 72.78%
03/27 1,704 403 30.98%
03/28 2,229 525 30.81%
03/29 -- 2,488 -- 259 -- 11.62%
03/30 3,170 682 27.41%
03/31 4,055 885 27.92%
04/01 -- 5,112 -- 1,057 -- 26.07%
04/02 6,095 983 19.23%
04/03 7,403 1,308 21.46%
04/04 -- 8,454 -- 1,051 -- 14.20%
04/05 9,620 1,166 13.79%
04/06 10,943 1,323 13.75%
04/07 -- 12,875 -- 1,932 -- 17.66%
04/08 14,797 1,922 14.93%
04/09 16,691 1,894 12.80%
04/10 -- 18,747 -- 2,056 -- 12.32%
04/11 20,580 1,833 9.78%
04/12 22,115 1,535 7.46%
04/13 -- 23,644 -- 1,529 -- 7.46%
04/14 26,064 2,420 10.24%
04/15 28,554 2,490 9.56%
04/16 -- 34,641 -- 6,087 -- 21.32%
04/17 37,175 2,534 7.32%
04/18 39,015 1,840 4.95%
This chart tracks the daily inrease over the previous day, in the middle
column there.
Would like to see us stick like this until things taper off.
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Numbers, although high, went in the right direction yesterday.
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 -- 46,442 -- 11,236 -- 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 -- 85,991 -- 16,794 -- 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 -- 143,025 -- 18,360 -- -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 -- 216,721 -- 27,097 -- 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 -- 312,237 -- 33,779 -- 899
04/05 337,638 25,401 -8,378
04/06 368,376 30,738 5,337
04/07 -- 399,929 -- 31,553 -- 815
04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
04/09 466,299 31,139 -4,092
04/10 -- 501,609 -- 35,310 -- 4,171
04/11 529,951 28,342 -6,968
04/12 557,590 27,639 -703
04/13 -- 582,594 -- 25,004 -- -2,635
04/14 609,516 26,922 1,918
04/15 644,348 34,832 7,910
04/16 -- 678,210 -- 33,862 -- 970
04/17 710,272 32,062 -1,800
04/18b 738,923 28,651 -3,411
Our new cases category fell off a bit yesterday. Hey, we'll take anything we
can get these days.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Heck, I'm tired just reading that list of stuff coming up!
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 252 152 404 19,220
03/21 329 176 505 26,242
03/22 396 178 574 34,632
03/23 -- 428 -- 178 -- 606 -- 45,836
03/24 581 354 935 54,296
03/25 753 619 1,372 67,825
03/26 -- 1,301 -- 1,868 -- 3,169 -- 82,822
03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 100,513
03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 119,205
03/29 -- 2,488 -- 4,562 -- 7,050 -- 135,975
03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 155,943
03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 178,318
04/01 -- 5,112 -- 8,878 -- 13,990 -- 202,731 -- 5,005
04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 229,061 5,421
04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 258,772 5,787
04/04 -- 8,454 -- 14,825 -- 23,279 -- 288,958 -- 8,206
04/05 9,620 17,977 27,597 310,041 8,702 The 4th no
04/06 10,943 19,810 30,753 337,623 8,983 on the Left
04/07 -- 12,875 -- 22,711 -- 34,586 -- 365,343 -- 9,169 updated on
04/08 14,797 22,891 37,688 397,472 9,279 4/16
04/09 16,691 25,928 42,619 423,680 10,011 from 5,787
04/10 -- 18,747 -- 27,314 -- 46,061 -- 455,548 -- 10,917 to 8,206
04/11 20,580 30,502 51,082 478,869 11,471 Presbyterian
04/12 22,115 32,634 54,749 502,841 11,766 Reporter
04/13 -- 23,644 -- 36,948 -- 60,592 -- 522,002 -- 12,772 followed
04/14 26,046 38,820 64,884 544,632 13,473 more closely
04/15 28,554 48,708 77,262 567,086 13,487 early on
04/16 -- 34,641 -- 57,844 -- 92,485 -- 585,725 -- 13,369
04/17 37,175 63,510 100,685 609,587 13,509
04/18 39,015 68,236 107,301 631,622 13,551
There's not much to say here. Numbers just keep getting larger. Sadly there
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
04/05 26.464% 0.529% 32.866% 0.466%
04/06 27.324% 0.860% 34.153% 1.287%
04/07 27.930% 0.606% 34.854% 0.701%
04/08 28.634% 0.704% 36.125% 1.271%
04/09 29.091% 0.457% 36.790% 0.665%
04/10 29.523% 0.432% 37.363% 0.573%
04/11 29.812% 0.289% 37.872% 0.509%
04/12 30.124% 0.312% 38.500% 0.628%
04/13 30.332% 0.208% 38.714% 0.214%
04/14 30.537% 0.205% 39.364% 0.650%
04/15 30.888% 0.351% 39.489% 0.125%
04/16 31.024% 0.136% 39.416% -0.073%
04/17 31.513% 0.489% 39.970% 0.554%
04/18 31.646% 0.133% 40.133% 0.163%
Growth in these areas rebounded yesterday. It's not quite as rosy as it
was the day before. That was a strange day though, to be sure.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
When looking at this section, it almost looks as if some numbrs held off on the
day before and were dumped yesterday.
Here is the Cases Informaiton for the Global Outside China Territories
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
04/05 1,193.215 71,866 -13,088
04/06 1,265,487 72,272 386
04/07 1,349,117 83,630 11,358
04/08 1,436,669 87,552 3,922
04/09 1,519,961 83,292 -4,260
04/10 1,616,016 96,055 12,763
04/11 1,694,570 78,554 -17,501
04/12 1,767,831 73,261 -5,293
04/13 1,838,067 70,236 -3,025
04/14 1,912,638 74,571 4,335
04/15 2,003,756 91,118 16,547
04/16 2,103,357 99,601 8,483
04/17 2,171,190 67,833 -31,768
04/18 2,252,214 81,024 13,191
See that dip there in-between days. Kindof an odd reporting day.
Certainly glad to see that.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Crical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 169,645
03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 196,197
03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 221,030
03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 258,538
03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 290,927
03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 332,168
03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 382,137
03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 434,857
03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 490,808
03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 534,532
03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 579,547
03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 636,724
04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 693,348
04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 748,895
04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 839,770
04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775 889,574 41,993
04/05 66,183 185,921 252,104 941,111 45,633
04/06 71,485 208,635 280,120 985,367 47,201
04/07 78,812 224,264 303,076 1,046,041 47,743
04/08 85,214 253,546 338,760 1,097,909 47,990
04/09 92,409 278,059 370,468 1,149,493 49,001
04/10 99,443 299,451 398,894 1,217,122 49,692
04/11 105,528 326,847 432,375 1,262,195 50,485
04/12 110,928 352,960 463,888 1,303,943 50,735
04/13 116,389 375,551 491,940 1,346,127 51,035
04/14 128,411 407,858 531,269 1,381,369 51,490
04/15 131,343 437,452 568,795 1,434,961 51,043
04/16 142,355 475,102 617,457 1,485,900 56,510
04/17 149,690 497,480 647,120 1,524,070 57,049
04/18 156,186 523,252 679,439 1,572,775 55,186
There's just a lot going on out there.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without US numbers?
Take special note of the dip in the Global nubmers here. Nice!
Global (EC) Global
the Minus Excluding
-
U. S. the U. S. China
03/29 19,826 38,955 58,481
03/30 21,595 40,868 62,463
03/31 25,004 48,832 73,836
04/01 27,097 50,405 77,502
04/02 28,838 49,710 78,548
04/03 32,899 69,559 102,458
04/04 33,843 51,111 84,954
04/05 25,401 46,465 71,866
04/06 30,738 41,534 72,272
04/07 31,553 52,077 83,630
04/08 35,231 52,321 87,552
04/09 31,139 52,153 83,292
04/10 35,310 60,745 96,055
04/11 28,342 50,212 78,554
04/12 27,639 45,622 73,261
04/13 25,004 45,323 70,236
04/14 26,922 47,649 74,571
04/15 34,832 56,286 91,118
04/16 33,862 65,739 99,601
04/17 32,082 35,771 67,833
04/18 28,651 52,373 81,024
Numbers not looking too good there.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN The U K - 02/20 12 16 3 2 9 02/25 14 18 322 9 13 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 36 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 -- 164 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 459 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 1,553 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 5,067 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 -- 11,812 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 25,481 04/05 93,780 100,123 128,948 131,646 44,440 04/10 125,931 122,171 147,577 158,273 74,605 04/15 -- 147,863 -- 134,753 -- 165,155 -- 180,659 -- 98,476 04/18 161,793 143,724 175,925 194,416 114,217 < 3 DAYS NOT FIVE - Deaths 19,323 4,538 23,227 20,639 15,464 - Populace 66.274m 83.784m 60.462m 46.755m 67.886m - C P M 1m 2,441 1,715 2,910 4,158 1,682 - D P M 1m 292 54 384 441 228
Germany is looking pretty good there. They've kept their deaths down pretty
well.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
DATE SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY - 02/21 1 0 1 0 02/26 2 0 1 1 03/02 15 4 6 25 03/07 -- 161 -- 27 -- 19 -- 156 03/12 599 617 59 702 03/17 1,196 1,024 321 1,471 03/22 1,934 1,514 626 2,385 03/27 -- 3,069 -- 2,700 -- 1,041 -- 3,771 04/01 4,947 3,290 1,446 4,877 04/06 7,206 4,875 2,176 5,865 04/11 10,151 6,191 2,905 6,409 04/16 12,640 6,879 3,369 6,950 04/18 13,822 7,242 3,681 7,000 < 2 days not five - Deaths 1,511 346 90 164 - Populace 10.099m 5.792m 5.541m 5.421m - C P M 1m 1,369 1,250 664 1,304 - D P M 1m 150 60 16 30
Now while their case numbers don't look out of whack, I still can't figure out
why their rate of death is so much higher per million.
On the other hand, whatever Finland is doing, someone should can it and sell it.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.07% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
1 nation(s) with 700,000 plus (take a bow...) 5 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 3 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 6 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 9 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 19 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 35 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999
There are currently 78 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
04/05 1,275,856 71,933 332,513 20,445 26.062% 943,343
04/06 1,348,184 72,328 359,618 27,105 26.674% 988,566
04/07 - 1,431,900 - 83,716 - 383,688 - 24,070 - 26.796% - 1,048,212
04/08 1,519,478 87,848 419,465 35,777 27.606% 1,100,283
04/09 1,602,885 83,407 451,259 31,794 28.153% 1,151,626
04/10 - 1,699,019 - 96,134 - 479,758 - 28,499 - 28.237% - 1,219,261
04/11 1,777,666 78,647 513,239 33,481 28.872% 1,264,427
04/12 1,850,966 73,300 544,892 31,653 29.438% 1,306,074
04/13 1,921,369 70,403 573,019 28,127 29.823% 1,348,350
04/14 - 1,995,989 - 74,620 - 612,427 - 39,408 - 30.683% - 1,383,562
04/15 2,086,097 90,108 650,029 37,602 31.160% 1,436,068
04/16 2,186,049 99,952 700,033 50,004 32.023% 1,486,016
04/17 2,253,909 67,860 728,781 26,748 32.334% 1,525,128
04/18 2,334,949 81,040 761,133 32,352 32.5975 1,573,816
That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown 6.8% in the last two
weeks. That will impact our active cases.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 175,779
03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 201,855
03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 225,719
03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 263,252
03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 295,583
03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 335,931
03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 386,039
03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 438,537
03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 494,087
03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 537,680
03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 582,383
03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 639,468
04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 696,192
04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 751,466
04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 833,215
04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068 891,855 42,288 ch 295
04/05 69,514 262,999 332,513 943,343 45,898 ch 265
04/06 74,816 284,802 359,618 988,566 47,412 ch 211
04/07 82,145 301,543 383,688 1,048,212 47,932 ch 189
04/08 88,549 330,916 419,464 1,100,283 48,166 ch 176
04/09 95,475 355,514 451,259 1,151,626 49,145 ch 144
04/10 102,782 376,976 479,758 1,219,261 49,833 ch 141
04/11 108,867 404,372 513,239 1,264,427 50,624 ch 139
04/12 114,269 430,623 544,892 1,306,074 50,856 ch 121
04/13 119,730 453,289 573,019 1,348,350 51,151 ch 116
04/14 126,753 485,674 612,427 1,383,562 51,603 ch 113
04/15 134,685 515,344 650,029 1,436,068 51,138 ch 95
04/16 146,987 553,046 700,033 1,486,016 56,599 ch 89
04/17 154,332 574,459 728,781 1,525,128 57,134 ch 85
04/18 160,818 600,315 761,133 1,573,816 55,271 ch 85
Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
1 CASE IN
THIS NUMBER CHANGE CHANGE
OF PEOPLE ON ON
ENTITY 04/18 04/17 04/16 04/18 04/17
-
Globally : 4,942 5,100 5,234 -158 -134
Outside China : 4,945 5,104 5,235 -159 -131
The U. S. A. : 524 543 565 -19 -22
-
INFECTION LEVEL
OF ENTIRE CHANGE CHANGE
POPULACE ON ON
ENTITY 04/18 04/17 04/16 04/18 04/17
-
Globally : 00.0202% 00.0196% 00.0192% 00.0006% 00.0004%
Outside China : 00.0246% 00.0238% 00.0232% 00.0008% 00.0006%
The U. S. A. : 00.1908% 00.1842% 00.1770% 00.0064% 00.0072%
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.
And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Wk/of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon - 03/06 2,223 2,265 2,962 3,801 3,977 3,876 4,411 03/13 4,411 4,680 2,085 17,028 11,031 13,847 12,158 03/20 15,748 20,668 25,700 30,911 31,846 31,979 42,362 03/27 41,500 48,988 60,679 65,282 67,094 58,576 62,551 04/03 73,890 77,602 78,618 102,520 85,002 71,933 72,328 04/10 72,328 87,578 83,407 96,134 78,647 73,300 70,403 04/17 74,620 90,108 99,952 67,860 81,040
Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.
I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Alphabetical & by Case Number
Idea of adding more informaton here, courtesy of Presbyterian Reporter
This little report now provides the number of cases and the deaths. I was going
to add more, but the data set I needed to pull this from, didn't provide that
information.. It's an alphabetical and cases by declining number file.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. Both the states and the counties
come on one Excell spreadsheet.
Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report just list the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. The States and Counties are
included on the same Excel spreadsheet.
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
The interesting thing to note is some 3/4 of the cases and deaths have been in ten states. Considering three of them are essentially ONE epidemic (Greater NYC) that is essentially 7 separate epidemics. All centered on a major urban area. Each of which may be well in decline.
As the virus continues to attenuate with passage the virus itself could become it’s own “vaccine”.
Look at the “Top 20” counties. Only 5 are even out of the NYC area. There are many counties at the bottom that are so sporadic it’s like someone got infected somewhere else and just “wandered in”. Outside these urban centers it’s almost like there never was an epidemic. I don’t think anybody anticipated that. You almost had to assume there would be some “background” of cases homogeneously distributed throughout the country. But it turns out not to be true.
https://finnishcrashcourse.wordpress.com/2016/02/16/personal-space/
Here’s your answer to the question “How is Finland different than Sweden or Norway?”. Note the photo “Finns at a bus stop”.
Historically, I do believe the thing that is really necessary to note is prior to some two decades ago Coronavirus was never able to compete for human hosts with the other Respiratory Viral Illnesses. It just “didn’t have game”. Until they started tinkering with it in labs to create “Experimental Super Bugs” through Gain of Function. Looking back it is clear what has happened. Every two years for 20 years they have HAD outbreaks from these labs but these “Superbugs” attenuated so rapidly to the “natural state” of Coronavirus the epidemic never really gained enough steam to “reach escape velocity”.
It’s pretty clear Epidemiologists around the world realized all this so they just shrugged, “China’s problem.” The question is, “How is this time different than the previous ones?” Did “some Chinese” realize it was “their patriotic duty” to see to it that China doesn’t suffer alone? Did they do so spontaneously or was their some “Central Instruction”?
...because what we are hearing is pretty disturbing. China quarantined Wuhan for all the rest of China but they let anyone who wanted to leave Wuhan fly to ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD.
btt
No matter how you look at Sweden’s numbers/data over the past few weeks, they are faring significantly worse than their neighbors with regard to per capita cases and deaths. We shouldn’t look at their approach as ideal.
And of course it’s not, but I don’t anticipate Sweden’s #s will be as bad as they could be. All models assume the Ro that is due to the virus itself, not the environment would be stable. It obviously is a mistaken assumption. Look at the stories we initially heard from Wuhan. The First Generations of transmissions sounds like the Ro and CFR was horrific. Now the virus we have circulating is some 100 generations of transmission down the line. Another 50 to 100 transmissions and it should be even less. I do think Sweden will fare worse for the wear but not as bad as the “models” predict because the “model” starts from a mistaken assumption.
The Swedes have it right.
Get back to work America end the madness. Stay inside if you are still concerned. STOP the CRAZY TRAIN!
I don’t know that I would go that far. IMHO the Finns have it over everybody but then the price they pay is National Autism.
Sounds like exactly what we are doing. I bet over 80% of the geographical land mass of the US can be at Phase Three in three weeks. Using the word “bet” rhetorically.
But for stupid Docs they should never have been in any phase WHAT SO EVER in most of the USA. But it has been easier to slap a one-size-fits-all lock down on all of us instead of using some common GD sense. Intellectual laziness and hard hardheadedness has killed our economy, but you Docs will still enjoy you lake side cabins this summer and spend time patting each other on the back, I am sure of it.
Obviously, I don’t see it the way you do. I don’t think you could just assume that the virus was going to attenuate so rapidly that there was no reason to Stomp the Ro from 6 or so down to about 1.3. Sure just letting the virus run free is a strategy but that strategy ends up killing a lot more people than the strategy we have pursued and if the virus fights back and turns out to attenuate more slowly the difference in lives lost mounts up.
Probably the best way to consider this is that the US has had a NBC attack. We are doing our best to minimize the damage and recover. Are some people gonna be hurt more than others? Of course! Trump sure seems to be doing all he can to mitigate that “unfairness”. Trump sure seems driven to open up as much of the country as possible and as rapidly as possible.
By the way, do you know of a hunting cabin for sale in the mountains? It might be fun to go dear hunting next fall.
Even now after we know what a complete disaster this theoretical "model" has been you are still being a dumba$$. We should have kept those at high risk separated from society and then DONE NOTHING ELSE.
Name calling again.
We could pin horns on your hat and send you out into the woods for a walk.
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