Posted on 04/11/2020 3:47:45 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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COVID-19 Update
As of 04/10/2020 23:11 PDST (taken at 23:59)
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for stopping by to check out this Update.
New: Mortality Workups / Numbers and Charts, US by State:
See Section above the US, New List Down Below States & Counties, & Spreadsheet
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary6: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
The United States Sees It's 500 Thousandth Case in the Rear View.
Around 18:00 give or take an hour PDST, the United State passed the 500 thousandth case
of COVID-19. Onward...
Mortality Reports
The last few days there has been talk of the number of deaths beginning to drop. I thought
I should provide a bit more data in that area. My data does show that the Global Community
is seeing bumpy numbers. One day they're up. The next day they are down.
I am providing the numbers, charts, and some thoughts, just below above the figures for the
United States.
States and Counties New Feature, that Will Spill Over Into the Mortality Report Also
I have run a spreadsheet total at the bottom of the States listing. Up above that tally at
the bottom, you'll be able to sort the states as you wish, when you access the spreadsheet.
The version here shows the same data, but of coure you can't manipulate it here.
The Inevitabe Counter Attack of the Recovering Humans Continues
The percentage of resolved cases continues to grow. Yea! It's now up about 2.7% since
the third, now residing at 28.237%.
Error Caught by Readers, Has Been Corrected.
I was trying to focus on the people who have had the virus and have recovered. I sited a
nice number and said I was happy to see it. Unfortunately that number was the "Resolved"
number and of course that included mortality figures. Sorry to have made that error.
TGI... what the heck?
At 17:00 this afternoon, the global number of cases was already over 5,000 points more
than our end of the day figures for yesterday. Some of you got a special report sent
to your FReeper inBox over it. Strangely enough, after I sent that note out, the
movement slowed. We wound up the day 12,700 cases higher. At one point it looked as if
we would wind up 30% higher for the day.
This prompted me to take a look at Fridays. Are the cases always elevated compared to
days just before and after? Here's some numbers so we can look at that.
Can You Spot the Fridays?
Wk/of -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 - 03/06 2,223 2,265 2,962 3,801 3,977 3,876 4,411 03/13 4,411 4,680 2,085 17,028 11,031 13,847 12,158 03/20 15,748 20,668 25,700 30,911 31,846 31,979 42,362 03/27 41,500 48,988 60,679 65,282 67,094 58,576 62,551 04/03 73,890 77,602 78,618 102,520 85,002 71,933 72,328 04/10 72,328 87,578 83,407 96,134 < @ 17:00 (5,427 above yesterday's total already)If you can tell which day is Friday, go to the head of the class. On some days its
I honestly think this is a clearical issue. The numbers should probably,
have been absorbed partially on the day before and the day after.
Mortality Report
I don't generally wallow in the Mortality figures. The topic hasn't lent itself to any
postive avenue of discussion. Now, with folks discussing it broadly. We need to tune in
and see if there's anything to cheer about.
Here are figures of the rolling upward totals for four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/07 17 480 497 3594
03/08 21 685 706 3825
03/09 26 864 890 4026
03/10 28 1094 1122 4284
03/11 38 1428 1466 4638
03/12 40 1508 1548 4720
03/13 47 2189 2236 5429
03/14 57 2573 2630 5833
03/15 69 3227 3296 6513
03/16 85 3839 3924 7154
03/17 113 4599 4712 7954
03/18 140 5407 5547 8810
03/19 196 6557 6753 10030
03/20 252 7858 8110 11399
03/21 329 9411 9740 13049
03/22 396 10909 11305 14706
03/23 428 12632 13060 16563
03/24 581 14766 15347 18919
03/25 753 16890 17643 21308
03/26 1301 19484 20785 24077
03/27 1704 22762 24466 27761
03/28 2229 25293 27522 30852
03/29 2488 28226 30714 34018
03/30 3170 31345 34515 37820
03/31 4055 34987 39042 42354
04/01 5112 38837 43949 47261
04/02 6095 43743 49838 53160
04/03 7403 48208 55611 58937
04/04 8454 53012 61466 64795
04/05 9620 56563 66183 69514
04/06 10943 60542 71485 74816
04/07 12875 65937 78812 82145
04/08 14797 70417 85214 88549
04/09 16691 75718 92409 95745
04/10 18747 80667 99414 102753
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
It was hard to see anything decent here except large numbers and continual growth.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/08 4 205 209 231
03/09 5 179 184 201
03/10 2 230 232 258
03/11 10 334 344 54
03/12 2 80 82 82
03/13 7 681 688 709
03/14 10 384 394 404
03/15 12 654 666 680
03/16 16 612 628 641
03/17 28 760 788 800
03/18 27 808 835 856
03/19 56 1150 1206 1220
03/20 56 1301 1357 1369
03/21 77 1553 1630 1650
03/22 67 1498 1565 1657
03/23 32 1723 1755 1857
03/24 153 2134 2287 2356
03/25 172 2124 2296 2389
03/26 548 2594 3142 2769
03/27 403 3278 3681 3684
03/28 525 2531 3056 3091
03/29 259 2933 3192 166
03/30 682 3119 3801 3802
03/31 885 3642 4527 4534
04/01 1057 3850 4907 4907
04/02 983 4906 5889 5899
04/03 1308 4465 5773 5777
04/04 1051 4804 5855 5858
04/05 1166 3551 4717 4719
04/06 1323 3979 5302 5302
04/07 1932 5395 7327 7329
04/08 1922 4480 6402 6404
04/09 1894 5301 7195 7196
04/10 2056 4949 7005 7008
Here's the chart to go with it
The lines on that chart seem to bounce around pretty good. It's tough to see some real
trends. If anything it still seems to be trending higher overall. I know the one day
looks nice and will tend to influence folks to grasp onto hope. I can't buy in at this
point.
Check out the figures over the last two days. Well, I don't see one day as a trend.
I'm glad to see the figures drop yesterday, but looking back, I can see other days where
figures dropped. I need to see more than that to convince me we're on the backside.
globally.
I've been burned too many times by talk of good news. Lets hang in there. Moving on...
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Yesterday's Growth Rate Kept Up the Customary Growth
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 46,442 11,236 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 216,721 27,097 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 312,237 33,779 899
04/05 337,638 25,401 -8,378
04/06 368,376 30,738 5,337
04/07 399,929 31,553 815
04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
04/09 466,299 31,139 -4,092
04/10 501,609 35,310 4,171
Today was another Friday where figures came in quit elevated. Here in the U. S. they
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, & Serious/Critical Cases
in the United States
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 252 152 404 19,220
03/21 329 176 505 26,242
03/22 396 178 574 34,632
03/23 428 178 606 45,836
03/24 581 354 935 54,296
03/25 753 619 1,372 67,825
03/26 1,301 1,868 3,169 82,822
03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 100,513
03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 119,205
03/29 2,488 4,562 7,050 135,975
03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 155,943
03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 178,318
04/01 5,112 8,878 13,990 202,731 5,005
04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 229,061 5,421
04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 258,772 5,787
04/04 8,454 14,825 23,279 288,958 5,870
04/05 9,620 17,977 27,597 310,041 8,702
04/06 10,943 19,810 30,753 337,623 8,983
04/07 12,875 22,711 34,586 365,343 9,169
04/08 14,797 22,891 37,688 397,472 9,279
04/09 16,691 25,928 42,619 423,680 10,011
04/10 18,747 27,314 46,061 455,548 10,917
Just wanted to touch base on an issue that popped up here over the last day or two.
Oops... sorry about that.
Now... the numbers continue to grow. 27,314 people have come through COVID-19 alive
now, in the the United States. I'm liking that. I have a family member I'm pretty glad
to still have around.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow
There are a number of factors than can have impact on why we have so many of the global
cases. Perhaps we're ramping up the testing more than others.
Here is what those numbers looked like at the end of the day yesterday. Maybe the virus
was here a lot earlier than we thought. It's hard to tell.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
04/05 26.464% 0.529% 32.866% 0.466%
04/06 27.324% 0.860% 34.153% 1.287%
04/07 27.930% 0.606% 34.854% 0.701%
04/08 28.634% 0.704% 36.125% 1.271%
04/09 29.091% 0.457% 36.790% 0.665%
04/10 29.523% 0.432% 37.363% 0.573%
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Global Cases Increased to Record Levels Today, Outside M/L China
Yes, back to still more numbers...
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
04/05 1,193.215 71,866 -13,088
04/06 1,265,487 72,272 386
04/07 1,349,117 83,630 11,358
04/08 1,436,669 87,552 3,922
04/09 1,519,961 83,292 -4,260
04/10 1,616,016 96,055 12,763
Some of this days numbers likely belonged on neighboring days. That will make more
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Excluding M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 169,645
03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 196,197
03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 221,030
03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 258,538
03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 290,927
03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 332,168
03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 382,137
03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 434,857
03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 490,808
03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 534,532
03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 579,547
03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 636,724
04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 693,348
04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 748,895
04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 839,770
04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775 889,574 41,993
04/05 66,183 185,921 252,104 941,111 45,633
04/06 71,485 208,635 280,120 985,367 47,201
04/07 78,812 224,264 303,076 1,046,041 47,743
04/08 85,214 253,546 338,760 1,097,909 47,990
04/09 92,409 278,059 370,468 1,149,493 49,001
04/10 99,443 299,451 398,894 1,217,122 49,692
Still expecting to see elevated numbers of recoveries any day now.
Flattening...
There is flattening going on in the Global scene outside China and the U. S. Right now.
Lets review the situation again.
Here: (case growth)
-
Global Global (EC)
Excluding Minus the
China the U. S. U. S.
03/29 58,481 38,955 19,826
03/30 62,463 40,868 21,595
03/31 73,836 48,832 25,004
04/01 77,502 50,405 27,097
04/02 78,548 49,710 28,838
04/03 102,458 69,559 32,899
04/04 84,954 51,111 33,843
04/05 71,866 46,465 25,401
04/06 72,272 41,534 30,738
04/07 83,630 52,077 31,553
04/08 87,552 52,321 35,231
04/09 83,292 52,153 31,139
04/10 96,055 60,745 35,310
I woudln't normally see a directional change off one number, and today there being an
unusual jump in numbers, as sometimes happens on Fridays, I'm not sure this is worth
worrying about at all. We'll check out tomorrow's numbers.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN - 02/20 12 16 3 2 02/25 14 18 322 9 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 04/05 93,780 100,123 128,948 131,646 04/10 125,931 122,171 147,577 158,273
Just keeping an eye on these nations. France and Germany are neck and neck there, but
France seems to want it more... Well, probably not.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I'm cheking to see if they
have the right idea or not. I'm not convinced either way at this point.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
DATE SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY - 02/21 1 0 1 0 02/26 2 0 1 1 03/02 15 4 6 25 03/07 -- 161 -- 27 -- 19 -- 156 03/12 599 617 59 702 03/17 1,196 1,024 321 1,471 03/22 1,934 1,514 626 2,385 03/27 -- 3,069 -- 2,700 -- 1,041 -- 3,771 04/01 4,947 3,290 1,446 4,877 04/06 7,206 4,875 2,176 5,865 04/10 9,685 5,819 2,769 6,314 > 4 days not five - Deaths 870 247 48 113 - Populace 10.33m 5.82m 5.53m 5.37m
When you look at the time this rise has taken, it's not exactly a wash-out. I'll keep
checking this out and posting the numbers.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.18% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day on 04/10/2020, there were: (Yes I finally changed from the 04/07
there.)
1 nation(s) with 500,000 plus (take a bow...) 4 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 3 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 5 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 6 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 13 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 32 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999There are currently 64 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
One nation wound up with 999 at the end of the day, and another had 998. There are
four nations above 990, but not quite a thousand. Tomorrow then...
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
04/05 1,275,856 71,933 332,513 20,445 26.062% 943,343
04/06 1,348,184 72,328 359,618 27,105 26.674% 988,566
04/07 - 1,431,900 - 83,716 - 383,688 - 24,070 - 26.796% - 1,048,212
04/08 1,519,478 87,848 419,465 35,777 27.606% 1,100,283
04/09 1,602,885 83,407 451,259 31,794 28.153% 1,151,626
04/10 - 1,699,019 96,134 479,758 28,499 28.237% 1,219,261
Again, the Friday issue. We'll see how tomorrow goes, but I'm fairly certain the
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Including M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 175,779
03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 201,855
03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 225,719
03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 263,252
03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 295,583
03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 335,931
03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 386,039
03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 438,537
03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 494,087
03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 537,680
03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 582,383
03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 639,468
04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 696,192
04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 751,466
04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 833,215
04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068 891,855 42,288 ch 295
04/05 69,514 262,999 332,513 943,343 45,898 ch 265
04/06 74,816 284,802 359,618 988,566 47,412 ch 211
04/07 82,145 301,543 383,688 1,048,212 47,932 ch 189
04/08 88,549 330,916 419,464 1,100,283 48,166 ch 176
04/09 95,475 355,514 451,259 1,151,626 49,145 ch 144
04/10 102,782 376,976 479,758 1,219,261 49,833 ch 141
Big numbers, but shortly the big Recovery numbers will start coming in. Hey
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
1 CASE IN
THIS NUMBER
OF PEOPLE
ENTITY 04/09 04/08 04/07 04/09 04/08
-
Globally : 6,373 6,747 7,062 -374 -315
Outside China : 6,384 6,760 7,077 -376 -317
The U. S. A. : 725 780 831 -55 -51
-
INFECTION LEVEL
OF ENTIRE
POPULACE
ENTITY 04/09 04/08 04/07 04/09 04/08
-
Globally : 00.0149% 00.0141% 00.0134% 00.0008% 00.0007%
Outside China : 00.0191% 00.0180% 00.0172% 00.0011% 00.0008%
The U. S. A. : 00.1379% 00.1282% 00.0997% 00.1106% 00.0079%
These saturation rates are troubling. The percentge of our populace infected is too,
States of the Union, the District of Columbia, and Territories...
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the states alphabetically. On the right side
of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. Look up your
state alphabetiall, get that number, and look at the list on the right to find look
at how the other states stand next to yours.
Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the Counties alphabetically. On the right
side of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. You can
look to see if your county is listed. Hopefully not... If you find it, you can look
at the numberical list to compare to other counties.
Here are the Mortality Figures for the States
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the States alphabetically. On the right
side of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. You can
find your state using the alphabetical side, then compare it using the numberical side.
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases
LINK US States DC51, and Territories5+
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Mortality Figures
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
Hey DoughtyOne!
I’ve gotten so tired of so many COVID-19 threads on FR that I hadn’t checked out your daily update until now. (I may not be too fast, but I’m pretty slow.)
Thanks for pulling the numbers together and sharing your observations.
This is excellent work! I’ll use it for reference.
Thanks for the incredible amount of work you’ve done!
For the depressing numbers showing the US’s infection level as a percentage of population being ~10 times higher than the global level, I imagine we are more thorough at testing at this stage than other nations were/are.
But i’m also wondering if you’ve used the total global population, or just the sum of the infected countries’ populations?
And of course, China’s numbers seem mythical.
signed off too soon - meant to add that i like the way you have numbers with and without China
Man, Rhode Island is getting slammed for such a tiny state.
Thanks for a deep look. Some of it was too detailed for me to understand, but tons of good graphs in their. I don’t see how you can do this daily. Thats a LOT of work.
I stopped by and checked your updates. TY
I'll just post this one graph today, since I found it very interesting:
Covid-19 theoretical vs. actual case growth.
Yesterday, I took the known data points regarding case growth, and created a theoretical growth curve--the curve that results if nothing is done. The curve is based on an R nought value of 2.5, meaning that each infected person infects 2.5 others, with each round of infection occurring over a period of 9 days. Since today is day 9 after the last plotted data, I refreshed the graph. The actual numbers today show a big drop from what they should have been. This is very hopeful, and indicates that the rate of spread may be slowing down. My data is an agglomeration of worldwide numbers. Many affected countries have enacted strict social distancing policies, and it looks like they are having the intended effect.
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