Actual Hospitalizations for Coronavirus Significantly Lower than Projections in Model

Breitbart ^ | April 3,2020 | MICHAEL PATRICK LEAH

[Hojczyk]

Breitbart News compared projections of the number of regular hospital beds needed to treat coronavirus patients made in the Friday, April 3 iteration of the IHME model for nine states to the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations (a number that includes current regular bed hospitalizations, current ICU hospitalizations, previously hospitalized and released patients, and previously hospitalized and deceased patients) reported by the respective health departments in those states as of Thursday, April 2.

These numbers, however, actually understate the degree to which the IHME model overestimates the number of hospital beds currently needed for coronavirus patients because the numerator–cumulative hospitalizations–includes data well in addition to the actual number of current regular hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients, since it also includes current ICU hospital beds in use for coronavirus patients as well as previously hospitalized coronavirus patients either released or deceased.

Notably, the IHME model’s current projections of COVID-19 deaths as of April 2 is in line with the actual number of reported deaths on that date.

Breitbart News provided this data to the media spokesperson for the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on Friday and asked if they could explained why the IHME model’s projections of regular hospital beds needed is so badly off the mark from actual beds required for COVID-19 patients up to April 2 but has not yet received a response.

[V_TWIN]

1000 bed hospital ship in ny with 20 beds filled...what a waste.

[fso301]

Am I correct that the article seems to be saying that corona isn't requiring significant additional bedspace because many contracting corona were already occupying beds for some other condition?

[Gahanna Bob]

Why aren’t these models being adjusted to reflect actual numbers. Decisions are being made based on models that aren’t even close to predicting actual hospitalizations and ventilator demand and usage.

Kind of reminds me of climate change models.

[null and void]

Good news.

Fix the model to reflect current reality to better predict future cases.

Eh? What's that you say? You fixed the model and it showed a bland future, no reason to panic? Drop it. Drop it now.

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Kind of reminds me of climate change models.

If I didn’t know better, I’d start to suspect that a lot of “modelers” fall into the category of

“Figures don’t lie - but liars figure."

[WildHighlander57]

Hojczyk, thanks for posting!

Need to post the info as a formula...

Are the hospitals seeing fewer people overall, and fewer out of that are WuhanVirus cases?

[USCG SimTech]

A majority of Americans IMMEDIATELY stepping up and isolating, washing hands threw all the models out the window.

[bert]

Rush is on a tear, jumping the shark actually, by equating his only knowledge of models, climate change, with the present models.

That is in effect whatFreepers have done. They ad 13 and 2 and get 4

[tatown]

The models supposedly already factored that in.

[Bernard]

Fauci has been on the government payroll for 52 years, mostly sitting at a desk. He had one period where he volunteered 2 hours per day to go into severe EBOLA wards. You don’t see a lot of lifer government employees become successful by underestimating an impending crisis. Multiply Fauci by all of the lifer experts who now have JohnMcCain level access to microphones, and the answer is a lot of doom and gloom.

[ncalburt]

Thats been my question .
Virus Cases are not all hospitalizations .
I noted outside of a few places.
The cases load is low.
The Icu load is the issue .
Setting up separate Virus Icu outside the hospitals is the key .

The virus is scaring off a hospitals normal elective procedures volumes .
That will damage the hospitals more .

i wonder if cases are coded as virus cases to get the additional funds .
The CDC and Dr F@@trump have made a mess .
Both are anti Trump .

[Blood of Tyrants]

Trump did it to show that he is sympathetic to them and has their backs.

[jerod]

The over estimation of Covid deaths is likely significant... Less deaths, less funding, less supplies, less of everything coming towards your facility.

So the incentive for fibbing is very high... Instead of investigating China’s lack of deaths, maybe they should be investigating New York’s reported deaths. On any given normal day roughly 250,000+ people die on earth.

Are these health facilities actually testing the cadaver of every patient who dies to determine that they have succumbed from Covid-19, or are they lumping deaths from a variety of other causes onto their Covid-19 death totals?

[Howie66]

Exactly.

This crap has gotten out of control and must be put to an end.

[Blood of Tyrants]

I know many of you have heard of the nursing home in Gallatin where a lot of their residents and staff became infected with CV. The good news is that many of them have improve to the point that they are going to release many of them Monday if their condition continues to improve. My wife, a hospital pharmacist at the hospital where many are being treated, says that the doctors gave some of them Plaquanil and various antibiotics, but you have to be very careful that their kidney and liver functions are good or the drugs could cause kidney or liver failure. Just a few had to be intubated.

[USS Alaska]

Rush is on a tear, jumping the shark actually, by equating his only knowledge of models, climate change, with the present models.

All models are the same, that is why they are named "MODELS".

They pretend to use data, that they select, injected into parameters, that they choose, to accurately predict the future.

The modeler can produce any result he chooses, based on selected parameters and data input.

The oldest model in the world is the vote.

Uncle Joe Stalin figured this one out, early on.

It's not who votes that count, it's who counts the votes.

You are the only one doing any shark humping, and showing your total ignorance.

YOU CAN NEVER GET AHEAD OF RUSH, SO PUT YOUR PATHETIC, TINY organ away, and stop humping the shark.

You are embarrassing yourself.

[central_va]

The sky isn’t falling????

[bert]

That ignorance on display is balderacious drivel. It is pure unadulterated vociferous BS

[dynoman]

And that STUPID Omar attacked Trump on twitter for using it as a photo op.