One day is not a pattern.
Yeah agreed ... the peak will come in the next couple weeks probably but if this is it ... it's earlier than expected.
Purely visually sampling ... most countries' numbers, even the more developed counties with more reliable reporting ... do tend to show at least one significant drop day or couple days and then resume the trend back up.
So it's likely this is a false summit
On the other hand, there does appear to be a few days of starting-to-level ... maybe approaching the peak. .... maybe ...
It’s hard to base anything on just one day numbers, but I’v been running a two day rolling daily average, and the percentage increase has been dropping, from 55% increase on 03/19 to 18% Sunday. The average increase over the last 4 days has been stabilizing around 18,000 cases. This is very good news.
The CDC changed its data collection system to rely on state reporting, so I hope data isn’t getting lost in the state transfer of information.
Up over 20k today
This is why this has to go on through April - to get it to roll over, get a large reduction in number of active cases so that remaining spread can be contained and managed.
Right. I have a spreadsheet where I’ve recorded the US numbers since 3/13/2020 (with a couple of holes) and there have only been 3 days where the number of new cases went down.
Death rates have inched up but its been pretty steady the last few days at 1.8% of those infected have died.
The rates of western Europe countries are generally much worse.
True. The important number is not going to be raw total of infections but the death rate. I think ultimately very large numbers of people will be infected, most without realizing it. Bending the curve on the death rate is really the number to watch.