Posted on 03/28/2020 8:44:39 AM PDT by Texas Fossil
There is room for different interpretations of the data
In announcing the most far-reaching restrictions on personal freedom in the history of Britain nation, Prime Minister Boris Johnson resolutely followed the scientific advice that he had been given. The advisers to the UK government seem calm and collected, with a solid consensus among them. In the face of a new viral threat, with numbers of cases surging daily, I’m not sure that any prime minister would have acted very differently.
But I’d like to raise some perspectives that have hardly been aired in the past weeks, and which point to an interpretation of the figures rather different from that which the government is acting on. I’m a recently-retired Professor of Pathology and National Health Service consultant pathologist, and have spent most of my adult life in healthcare and science — fields which, all too often, are characterized by doubt rather than certainty. There is room for different interpretations of the current data. If some of these other interpretations are correct, or at least nearer to the truth, then conclusions about the actions required will change correspondingly.
The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to COVID-19 so 0.8 percent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 percent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu).
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.us ...
‘If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.”
Hey John Lee. Stay retired. How many cases can be cited as VARDS as a contributing factor? Same issues up to and including DEATH.
Last I heard, China and Italy did not ban it.
In homogenous countries with one culture, these things are easier to manage.
In our country, it’s like herding cats.
I guess the 3rd world invasion is proving even deadlier than we imagined.
Larger?
Because China hid it. That allowed the seeding of many places due to the 14 day incubation period.
That that and if is true that there is 50% of the infections that are without symptoms, it is hard to control by normal means.
Same response? From Government and media? Yes.
Correct. But it is politically incorrect to state the truth of that.
Election year, of the guy who killed their favorable deal all these years... A virus, non fatal to most, no harm to the local Chinese for the most part (Plausible deniability and a totalitarian doesn’t care about a few weak or elderly dying a little earlier), released near a bio lab in China, during a local event called the largest yearly migration in the world, conveniently let free to maximum effect timing wise...
I think it may be a message to the west, from the Chinese: “What if this little virus were just a little more deadly?
-Next time?”
I scored a six pack of decent 2-ply! Some aisles were fairly well stripped but meats and dairy were pretty full.
Yes, the ComDem and lying support media must lie. It is the only path to their true agenda.
They don’t care if they destroy the nation. Then they will attempt to takeover the rubble.
Ah, the old communist style lying: When things are not as bad as you claim they are or would be, you claim confusing.
I forget my blood type also .
I am 72. Have no known health problems, take no prescriptions meds.
I am no more afraid of this one than other flu viruses. I have had flu a couple of times in my life.
What is happening with media coverage of this is totally insane.
And the USA was under impeachment, gave the red strain time to reach us on Feb 5th, the day before acquital. Can’t go obstructing the wishes of the House can we ? Lucky timing for the DEMs. https://nextstrain.org/ncov has the timeline of the 8+ strains.
Great analysis, Wildbill22. Thanks. BUMP!
Totally agree. Thank you.
The worst part is watching MSNBC play horror movie music on their own news. I mean that sure sounds professional of them
(not really)
I think the ibuprofen thing is more than a rumor.
There are old and lengthy studies that said “aspirin” made the 1917-1918 Spanish Flu much worse. It caused the virus to increase in replication.
The worst part is watching MSNBC play horror movie music on their own news. I mean that sure sounds professional of them
“BIG FINISH!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhOerh-LUQM
the problem is that everyone was ordered into hibernation practically, so people have been avoiding others- not getting exposed to the virus- once they start mingling again, it’s possible the virus will spread quickly again- I think mandating people to hibernate just delayed the inevitable- We’ll have to wait and see what happens when people get out and about again-
Great post/analysis. Same here only 69 though you old goat. : ) No useless eaters are we? I can sill do good at the range.
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