Posted on 03/28/2020 8:44:39 AM PDT by Texas Fossil
There is room for different interpretations of the data
In announcing the most far-reaching restrictions on personal freedom in the history of Britain nation, Prime Minister Boris Johnson resolutely followed the scientific advice that he had been given. The advisers to the UK government seem calm and collected, with a solid consensus among them. In the face of a new viral threat, with numbers of cases surging daily, I’m not sure that any prime minister would have acted very differently.
But I’d like to raise some perspectives that have hardly been aired in the past weeks, and which point to an interpretation of the figures rather different from that which the government is acting on. I’m a recently-retired Professor of Pathology and National Health Service consultant pathologist, and have spent most of my adult life in healthcare and science — fields which, all too often, are characterized by doubt rather than certainty. There is room for different interpretations of the current data. If some of these other interpretations are correct, or at least nearer to the truth, then conclusions about the actions required will change correspondingly.
The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to COVID-19 so 0.8 percent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 percent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu).
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.us ...
Goes to the heart of assessing where the numbers related to CoVid 19 and the statistics that are being given to us.
Is it flawed? In my opinion, absolutely.
Was the disease engineered in the lab? I am not sure.
Is is as deadly as we are assuming? No.
Figures never lie, but Liars Figure.
Oct 2007
Clin Microbiol Rev. 2007 Oct;20(4):660-94.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus as an agent of emerging and reemerging infection.Clin Microbiol Rev. 2007 Oct;20(4):660-94.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17934078
Yep - and them figures become gospel to the fearful hordes.
Will China Profit from the Outbreak?...
https://www.wionews.com/videos/gravitas-wuhan-coronavirus-will-china-profit-from-the-outbreak-289014
Thank you
This media driven hysteria is coming to and end a lot sooner than many believe.
The proof?
I ewalked into my local food store this morning and on the shelves I found
TOILET PAPER!!
After 10 days of shelves being emptied as quickly as they are filled, people are returning to sanity.
Yes, the sheep.
ComDem subjects and useful idiots.
Thank you.
Why is it still not clear? Based on projections a month ago our hospitals would be overwhelmed by now .
I read somewhere about the Chinese virus and blood type. So I looked it up:
It turns out there’s a lot of (relatively) blood type A in europe. Lot’s of China Virus.
Where is there alot of A in the USA?
NorthEast Coast, Louisiana, and the Northwest (WA). Same as the epi-centers.
Huh.
India which has a hugh population and is right next to China, has almost no China virus. Lot’s of type B’s there, same for the Korea’s.
Same goes for alot of the mideast, like pakistan, iran (lot’s of A’s too) and iraq. Lot’s of B’s,
Which means that every time a new strain of pathogen comes along, we'll get the exact same response.
Seriously scary part: It doesn’t need to be ginned up in a lab. All the bad actors need are infectious vics who have a new bug and are still ambulatory, add some plane tickets to the target of your choice....Voila!
And if our enemies hadn’t figured that before, you can bet they have now.
That doesn’t bode well for me. I think I’m Type A ... but I’m not positive.
I think that China did figure it out.
The ChiComs aren’t the only ones.
How many places have been under shutdown for a good part of that past month?
Do you think those measures had nothing to do with the lack of cases?
Pretty sure they knew that before now.
Compare the SARS-CoV-1 outbreak in 2003 with the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak now.
“The NIH scientists, from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories, compared how the environment affects SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1, which causes SARS. SARS-CoV-1, like its successor now circulating across the globe, emerged from China and infected more than 8,000 people in 2002 and 2003. SARS-CoV-1 was eradicated by intensive contact tracing and case isolation measures and no cases have been detected since 2004. SARS-CoV-1 is the human coronavirus most closely related to SARS-CoV-2. In the stability study the two viruses behaved similarly, which unfortunately fails to explain why COVID-19 has become a much larger outbreak.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317150116.htm
Big toilet paper Bump!
I understand Germany has conducted a massive amount of tests, with their death rate at 1/2 of 1%. .05—much lower than others, and less than predicted—far below panic worthy, probably less than annual flu, iirc.
That’s where we’ll land, much to media’s chagrin.
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