Posted on 03/26/2020 6:30:11 PM PDT by Hojczyk
did they predict this?
The two professors argue that the best evidence of the coronavirus death rate being significantly lower than what is being reported may lie in the Italian town of Vò. On March 6, the town's 3,300 residents were tested. Of these, 90 tests came back positive, indicating a prevalence of 2.7% of the population having the virus.
If one were to apply this to the entire province where the town is located, which has a population of 955,000, it would mean there were actually 26,000 infections at the time, and not just the 198 that were officially confirmed. This would be 130 times greater than the number of reported cases. Since Italy's case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, Bendavid and Bhattacharya write, "the real fatality rate [of the virus] could in fact be closer to 0.06%."
A 'cause for optimism'?
The two Stanford Health Policy experts even said the virus' mortality rate might be on par with that of the seasonal flu:
Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that's a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.
A universal lockdown 'may not be worth the costspublic policy experts should focus their measures on protecting the elderly and expanding medical capacity.
(Excerpt) Read more at theblaze.com ...
Assume the virus has a long incubation (not really that relevant, except for the time it takes to detect a problem), and spreads very fast. So three weeks after it appears you start to notice there is a problem, but in high density areas, many people are already infected (this is important).
Say that 1 in 3000 people who are infected require critical care within a few weeks after first few weeks of active cases. Let's look at New York (or Lombardy region). Assuming spread is much higher in dense regions, say 80% or more people infected during this time before isolation measures begin to curb spread, versus perhaps only 25% in a rural area where people do not share facilities and many lead isolated lives. So in New York City or Lombardy with population 10 million, you get around 3000 people needing critical care in that first few weeks which overwhelms the health system and creates many dead. Now look at the rural area, which was also infected. A rural county with population 250,000 has only 21 people needing critical care, which is indistinguishable from business as usual. For intermediate areas with higher population density you see the system straining, but not bodies piling up in the streets as we will likely see in NYC by the end of next week.
2017-2018 was a very unusually bad flu year - something like 60,000 people died.
From your article...
“We are pretty much at capacity, and the volume is certainly different from previous flu seasons,” says Dr. Alfred Tallia, professor and chair of family medicine at the Robert Wood Johnson Medical Center in New Brunswick, New Jersey. “I’ve been in practice for 30 years, and it’s been a good 15 or 20 years since I’ve seen a flu-related illness scenario like we’ve had this year.”
This one is taxing medical services even more, and we’re still at the early stages in this country. It’s not your run of the mill flu in terms of impact on medical services.
“That’s not a model, that’s reality.”
Yea, you can see their rationalizing is starting to come up empty.
First it was those scuzzy Chinese, who were slobs
(then it spread outside of China)
Then it was only those Chinese in Northern Italy
(then they saw the obituaries from the Italian newspapers, they were Italians)
Then it was because Italy has old people
(then they found out that the US also has old people, and we are far less healthy)
Then it was because Italy has socialized medicine
(then they found out Northern Italy has better medical care than the US)
Then it was because Italians live on top of each other
(then they figured out millions of Americans do the same)
Anyway, probably lots more rationalizations have come and gone with this bunch.
“Well, something caused Wuhan to operate their Crematoriums 24/7 for weeks. Perhaps another Cultural Revolution?”
Nobody is buried in China. Everyone who dies is cremated except the semi-deified national leaders. Wuhan proper has 11 million people and millions more in the satellite cities. (Suburbs.) The crematoriums run 24/7/365 all the time anyway. Several hundred people die in a city that size every day. They don’t have a huge amount of excess crematorium space.
So who’d ready to hug a Coronavirus patient?
Honest dude you’ve been utterly terrified since day 1.
Maybe this ain’t the right place for you.
The idiots are the WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE Club on FR.
Funny, how they’re hiding now.
Well, well. The media, Dims and like minded fellow travelers in position to serve the overall purpose, all ramped up the fear thinking Trump cared too much about “his” terrific economy numbers. They thought Trump would stubbornly refuse to act with “prudent caution” (as they define it), and they could score big points with a terrified public.
However, Trump surprised them, and acted as though he believed their hysterics and acted in accordance with someone in charge of a doomed people. In doing so Trump got ahead of them, and now they have no idea what to do next.
This crap is over next week and all the fear mongers are going to be left holding their empty bags of scare
Once again I say it.
This will turn out to be the biggest and most deliberate media perpertrated HOAX in history and the most damaging.
Yes the Chinese virus is real and it will turn outto be about as deadly and probably less so than other more common strains of virus circulating each year.
The evidence is trickling out now from sources all around the world. Previos “estimates of fatalities” shown to be wildly exaggerated such as the UK where flawed estimates of 500,000 dead was reduced to 20,000. Deaths from other causes being counted as China virus deaths and so on.
Meanwhile the libs are desperately trying to kill any hope of help by the medications being used to combat the effects of this virus and stop its spread.
BS, there is nothing but anecdotal evidence as far as hospitals being at breaking point.
This whole thing is manufactured hysteria and you bought into it lock, stock, and barrel.
This whole thing will end inside of 30 days.
Everyone needs to tune in to watch the Task Force briefings every day if they want real info instead of all the crap...
“If one were to apply this to the entire province where the town is located, which has a population of 955,000, it would mean there were actually 26,000 infections at the time, and not just the 198 that were officially confirmed. This would be 130 times greater than the number of reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, Bendavid and Bhattacharya write, “the real fatality rate [of the virus] could in fact be closer to 0.06%”
The obvious flaw in these doctors’ analysis is that the “town” which was studied, Vo, in the province of Padua, Italy, was the town where the first Covid19 fatality occurred. The infection rate in this town was very likely higher than in other towns where no one had died - because in those towns no one had the disease. Similarly the infection rate in Vo was likely higher than the infection rate in Greenland, where no one has died of the disease. If we just assume the infection rate in Greenland is 2.7% (the infection rate in Vo) we get a mortality rate of zero. These doctors seriously should have their licenses revoked.
“Nobody is buried in China. Everyone who dies is cremated except the semi-deified national leaders. Wuhan proper has 11 million people and millions more in the satellite cities. (Suburbs.) The crematoriums run 24/7/365 all the time anyway. Several hundred people die in a city that size every day. They don’t have a huge amount of excess crematorium space.”
I agree with most of the above, but might you have any links to the claim that crematoriums there run 24/7 in normal times, considering that was not what was being said by people there in January.
I agree - but some of them see an opportunity to “make it” if they make early, sensational, predictions of death and doom and it comes true...I’d wager some of them have been rooting for the virus...
And what if they were overbuilt everywhere in the country?
People would be bitching that they were overcharging patients to pay for the construction and operating costs of hospitals with capacity that wasn't needed.
You sound terrified... :)
“It WILL overwhelm hospitals possibly and even the young and strong who survive seem to need ventilators in a number of cases.
That leaves the old and sick screwed.
But I think the past several weeks Americans have done a good job of not spreading it and by Easter, like Trump said, we can start getting things back to normal a little at a time.
Or I could be completely wrong.
What do I know? i’m stuck in the house eating Genoa salami and watching The Godfather 300 times. :)”
Getting ‘back to normal’ has to include reality.
I’m NOT going to eat in a restaurant that allows people with temperatures to sit one table over... Waiters and waitresses need to be masked...
I’m NOT going to shop in grocery stores unless employees are masked - AND customers are temp checked at the door...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.