Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
WSJ ^ | March 24, 2020 | Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya

Posted on 03/24/2020 6:40:01 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: corona; coronavirus
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 141-145 next last
To: FreedomNotSafety

It is neither really deadly nor highly contagious.


21 posted on 03/24/2020 6:56:30 PM PDT by youngidiot (The left uses book publishing companies to launder large amounts of cash to other leftist.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

Hence Johns Hopkins sudden jettisoning of counting the recovered on the same day Trump sets a target date of 16 April. Coincidence???


22 posted on 03/24/2020 6:56:36 PM PDT by SecondAmendment (This just proves my latest theory ... LEFTISTS RUIN EVERYTHING)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety
But there's little evidence to confirm that premise

Hence the "abundance of caution" style of panic. We don't know which way this contagion will eventually play out. Either way, it will provide a lesson.

23 posted on 03/24/2020 6:57:01 PM PDT by Cboldt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: hardspunned
"...this is just the flu..."

I'd agree that it is A flu.

Variations on a theme.

24 posted on 03/24/2020 6:57:11 PM PDT by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: AAABEST
thousands of people in Italy have died thus far and the hospitals are overwhelmed.

You are wrong. It's the sniffles and most of the population has already been infected without detection. /s/

25 posted on 03/24/2020 6:57:12 PM PDT by AndyJackson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: From The Deer Stand

“pandemic” is a measure of global spread. Has nothing to do with magnitude of downside risk of health issues / death.


26 posted on 03/24/2020 6:59:47 PM PDT by Cboldt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

35,000 die on the highways every year. We must shut down the highways.


27 posted on 03/24/2020 6:59:50 PM PDT by Voltage
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

I am no expert but I think your numbers are off by an order of magnitude. I believe the seasonal flu death rate is 0.1%, not 0.01%. That would mean 0.5%, not 0.05% if this was 5x more deadly. The doctor/statistician who speaks at the Trump press conferences guesstimated it will fall in the 0.7% range of those infected. I hope it comes in lower than that and that contagion slows down soon.


28 posted on 03/24/2020 7:00:10 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

FYI...Washington State as of 3/24...92% of deaths are 60+

County Posi/Conf Cases Deaths
Adams 1 0
Benton 12 2
Chelan 6 0
Clallam 4 0
Clark 16 4
Columbia 1 0
Cowlitz 3 0
Douglas 2 0
Franklin 7 0
Grant 27 1
Grays Harbor 1 0
Island 29 1
Jefferson 8 0
King 1277 94
Kitsap 20 0
Kittitas 18 0
Klickitat 6 0
Lewis 2 0
Lincoln 1 0
Mason 2 0
Pierce 138 1
San Juan1 0
Skagit 48 1
Snohomish614 16
Spokane 33 0
Stevens 1 0
Thurston14 0
Walla Walla2 0
Whatcom 64 2
Whitman 2 0
Yakima 44 1
Unassigned 65
Total 2469 123


29 posted on 03/24/2020 7:00:28 PM PDT by goodnesswins (Trump is as good a dictator as he is a racist.....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

*******************************

Successful therapy against Covid-19 virus from New York State:

Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko

Board Certified Family Practitioner

501 Rt 208, Monroe, NY 10950

845-238-0000

March 23, 2020

To all medical professionals around the world:

My name is Dr. Zev Zelenko and I practice medicine in Monroe, NY. For the last 16 years, I have cared for approximately 75% of the adult population of Kiryas Joel, which is a very close knit community of approximately 35,000 people in which the infection spread rapidly and unchecked prior to the imposition of social distancing.

As of today my team has tested approximately 200 people from this community for Covid-19, and 65% of the results have been positive. If extrapolated to the entire community, that means more than 20,000 people are infected at the present time. Of this group, I estimate that there are 1500 patients who are in the high-risk category (i.e. >60, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).

Given the urgency of the situation, I developed the following treatment protocol in the pre-hospital setting and have seen only positive results:

1. Any patient with shortness of breath regardless of age is treated.

2. Any patient in the high-risk category even with just mild symptoms is treated.

3. Young, healthy and low risk patients even with symptoms are not treated (unless their circumstances change and they fall into category 1 or 2).

My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:

1. Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days

2. Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days

3. Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days

The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.

Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.

Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.

In sum, my urgent recommendation is to initiate treatment in the outpatient setting as soon as possible in accordance with the above. Based on my direct experience, it prevents acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prevents the need for hospitalization and saves lives.

With much respect,

Dr. Zev Zelenko

cc: President Donald J. Trump; Mr. Mark Meadows, Chief of Staff

Video at Link

https://matzav.com/watch-kiryas-yoel-dr-zev-zelenko-to-trump-im-seeing-success-with-your-approved-drug/?fbclid=IwAR0gVHAW9kWF-JLRHjzQx9bSFx6jlRgTn9_PpAmaiykXhsVqTE7wJrddS4g


30 posted on 03/24/2020 7:00:53 PM PDT by Candor7 ((Obama Fascism)http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2009/05/barack_obam_the_quintessentia_1.html))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: From The Deer Stand

we average tems of thousands of flu deaths/complications from each year, and no one freaks out.

deep state took this falsity and ran with it.

pelosi socilaism is running with it

the fed admits our money is created out fo thin air and will just ‘make’ it out of nothing , a trillion a day for tge foreseeable future

they are doing their best to collapse the country.

and then blame it all on trump

trump fuchs up the globalist one world socialist overlords plans, stalled them for four years

they all took pics of/with him, took his money for their causes and campaigns, and obama said every american wanted to be him, then because he’s not a one world globalist pawn they make him into worse than satan


31 posted on 03/24/2020 7:02:50 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not Averse to Going Bronson.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety
Which one country? Italy? 0.06%.

How did you derive 0.06%?

32 posted on 03/24/2020 7:08:35 PM PDT by Hepsabeth
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety
The fatality rate (high or low) is going to depend on how many people hospitals can keep alive in ICU with a ventilator for two weeks or more.

Once that number is maxed out, the fatality rate (high or low) will go up.

Living as I am with leukemia in remission, there is a little anxiety, sure. But am mostly worried for an older family member who has diabetes and also requires dialysis. Yes low fatality rate is good, and frankly, expected since to me it was obvious from the start that there were more infexted than tested. But am trying not to lose sight of the "little picture"

33 posted on 03/24/2020 7:08:52 PM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: AndyJackson
lol

If you think the FluBros are bad here, you should see my Facebook.

34 posted on 03/24/2020 7:09:38 PM PDT by AAABEST (NY/DC/LA media/political/military industrial complex DELENDA EST)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: AndyJackson

Undetected can’t be counted as that is simply making up data to prove whatever point you want. How about sticking to reported cases that require treatment and either recover or die. Much simpler and more honest. That is unless you are also intent on undermining Trump.


35 posted on 03/24/2020 7:09:38 PM PDT by Reno89519 (No Amnesty! No Catch-and-Release! Just Say No to All Illegal Aliens! Arrest & Deport!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Governor Dinwiddie

On the other hand there are other countries …

The numbers are all over the map!
Clearly this a job for Harry Truman’s legendary one-armed economist!


36 posted on 03/24/2020 7:13:09 PM PDT by DUMBGRUNT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Hepsabeth

I didn’t derive it. The authors did.


37 posted on 03/24/2020 7:14:05 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: heartwood

Exactly. THAT is what the talking heads mean when they talk about ‘flattening the curve’. It is all about NOT overloading the medical system at a particular time. In terms that might be more familiar to some, it could be called the ‘flow rate’.


38 posted on 03/24/2020 7:15:18 PM PDT by A Formerly Proud Canadian (0 once was blind but now I see...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety
In Italy, after the first 2,000 deaths, there were 2X more deaths among people Over 90 than there were among people below 60:

... and besides the age issue, in a sample of 355 victims, 48% percent of the deaths were people that Covid 19 and at least 3 other serious ailments:

and here were those diseases:

H/T WUWT

39 posted on 03/24/2020 7:16:16 PM PDT by UNGN (i)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: AAABEST

How any in Italy have been infected? That is a most important number in calculating a ratio.


40 posted on 03/24/2020 7:17:46 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 141-145 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson