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Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
WSJ ^ | March 24, 2020 | Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya

Posted on 03/24/2020 6:40:01 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: corona; coronavirus
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Sorry to link to a paywall you may be able to Google around it. The author's logic leads them to Italy with a fatality rate of 0.06% and the US at 0.01%. This explains clearly the importance of understanding and defining the denominator.
1 posted on 03/24/2020 6:40:01 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: FreedomNotSafety

Twitter and Facebook will need to ban the WSJ


2 posted on 03/24/2020 6:41:30 PM PDT by ARW
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To: ARW

0.01% of the US population is 36,000 deaths, or about a typical flu season here.


3 posted on 03/24/2020 6:43:06 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: FreedomNotSafety

Not this Sh1t again. /s


4 posted on 03/24/2020 6:43:09 PM PDT by Reno89519 (No Amnesty! No Catch-and-Release! Just Say No to All Illegal Aliens! Arrest & Deport!)
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To: FreedomNotSafety

You don’t say.


5 posted on 03/24/2020 6:43:11 PM PDT by CincyRichieRich (Be still, and know that I am God...Psalm 46:10)
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To: CincyRichieRich

The Chicken Freepers need someone to say it again, and again, and again. Repetition is the key to learning.


6 posted on 03/24/2020 6:46:25 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: FreedomNotSafety
The death rate is lower in certain countries: South Korea, Germany, and the USA for example. On the other hand there are other countries …
7 posted on 03/24/2020 6:46:35 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie (Guide me, O thou great redeemer, pilgrim through this barren land.)
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To: CatOwner

When you look at the virus’ effect on our population and not the government’s reaction, this is just the flu.


8 posted on 03/24/2020 6:47:11 PM PDT by hardspunned
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To: FreedomNotSafety

What matters more than the fatality rate is the number of critically ill at a given time - is that too many for the hospitals too manage?

NYC is getting close to that point.


9 posted on 03/24/2020 6:48:09 PM PDT by heartwood (Someone has to play devil's advocate.)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

Which one country? Italy? 0.06%. and they are the poster child of the hysterical Freeper crowd.


10 posted on 03/24/2020 6:48:11 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: heartwood

That may be true but even if that increases the fatality 5X it makes it only 0.05%.


11 posted on 03/24/2020 6:51:29 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: FreedomNotSafety

The CDC says 23,000 Americans have died from the flu so far in the 2019-20 season. That’s not on the “pandemic” roster.


12 posted on 03/24/2020 6:52:07 PM PDT by From The Deer Stand
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To: FreedomNotSafety

The experts say we’re all gonna die within 11.6 years if we don’t conquer climate change next week, so what the hell. Party like there’s no tomorrow.


13 posted on 03/24/2020 6:52:25 PM PDT by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!)
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To: FreedomNotSafety
... hysterical Freeper crowd.

I'm not one of them - in fact think people are overreacting to this.

That said, whatever the rate (.06 sounds ridiculously low), thousands of people in Italy have died thus far and the hospitals are overwhelmed.

That's what we're trying to avoid.

14 posted on 03/24/2020 6:53:40 PM PDT by AAABEST (NY/DC/LA media/political/military industrial complex DELENDA EST)
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To: FreedomNotSafety

They care using the entire population of Italy for their numbers. This would be wrong. Take the population of Lombardy and regions effected for a real look at the death rate.


15 posted on 03/24/2020 6:53:54 PM PDT by cornfedcowboy
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To: FreedomNotSafety

Shutting down for the sniffles....what a nation of wusses.


16 posted on 03/24/2020 6:54:01 PM PDT by lightman (I am a binary Trinitarian. Deal with it!)
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To: CatOwner
0.01% of the US population is 36,000 deaths, or about a typical flu season here.

That would require a 100% infection rate.

17 posted on 03/24/2020 6:54:31 PM PDT by keat
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To: Reno89519
If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger

In other words if for every case we find there are 1000s of cases that are undetected then the death rate is much lower than it is based upon what we know at present.

You cannot use evidence you don't have to refute evidence you do have.

But never let the facts get in the way of the truth. Sheesshh!!!

18 posted on 03/24/2020 6:55:46 PM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: FreedomNotSafety

It took two people two months to state the obvious in the WSJ?


19 posted on 03/24/2020 6:55:52 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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To: Jim Robinson

“Party like there’s no tomorrow.”

An 11.6 year party is one helluva party!


20 posted on 03/24/2020 6:56:10 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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