Never forget how the MSM tries to swing the vote.
Posted on 03/24/2020 10:06:02 AM PDT by sodpoodle
A new national poll points to an extremely close contest between President Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden as the race for the White House shifts to a likely general election battle between the two.
According to the poll, the president enjoys a nearly 2-to-1 margin over Biden in the 2,500 solidly red counties that Trump overwhelming won four years ago over 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. In the 360 solidly blue counties where Clinton crushed Trump, Biden is up by a 2-to-1 margin. But in the approximately 300 swing counties where the margins in the 2016 presidential election were 10 points or less, Biden tops Trump 50-41 percent.
“The race looks tight right now between Trump and the probable Democratic nominee. But as we learned in 2016, the outcome will be determined by the Electoral College rather than the national popular vote. The poll results suggest Biden may actually be starting out with an advantage in crucial swing areas of the country,” Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray said in a statement.
THE LATEST FROM FOX NEWS ON THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
As expected, there’s a wide partisan divide, with Democrats backing Biden 89-6 percent and Republicans behind the president 90-7 percent. Independents are nearly dead even, with 45 percent for Trump and 44 percent for the former vice president.
Biden leads 56-34 percent among voters under age 35, Trump has a 53-40 lead among those 35 to 54 and Biden has a slight 4-point advantage among voters 55 and older.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Firstly a national poll doesn’t matter. States elect presidents - not individuals.
Secondly, Fox polls always seem to be among the most consistently skewed against Trump.
Never forget how the MSM tries to swing the vote.
By the same pollsters who said Hillary would win in 2016, by a comfortable margin? Ho-hum.
Monmouth County is one of the little red coastal splotches on the famous by-county electoral map. Strongly Republican overall. Monmouth University, like almost any university, is a bastion of leftism.
Nonsense.
Who ran this poll?
What the cross tabs?
Fox polls have always been back-end-to to us. They mean nothing.
Partisan Media Shills update.
At this rate, the Fake Poll Machine will be out of gas by election time. The lie manufacturers should be more frugal.
I accept your apology......you horses ass.
Biden may be more popular in Michigan than Hillary was.
Was their sampling 100 percent Democrat?
Stand by for these DAILY BULL$HIT avalanches, such as this one!
This looks like another one of those “The Concept of Joe Biden is leading the Concept of Donald Trump among registered voters” polls. Ask likely voters to look at the real thing and the swing will be dramatic.
It’s also BS.
Monmouth U poll: Clinton widening lead over Trump
[Search domain www.app.com/story/news/politics/new-jersey/2016/08/08/2016-election-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-monmouth-university-poll/88399052/] https://www.app.com/story/news/politics/new-jersey/2016/08/08/2016-election-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-monmouth-university-poll/88399052/
WEST LONG BRANCH - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has opened up a 12-point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to the most recent Monmouth University national poll.
This is good news, as it means they will KEEP Biden in the race rather than vault another last minute candidate to replace him.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
GOOD OL FNN The same “right wing” news site
This is trash.
From the actual poll document:
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from March 18 to 22, 2020 with a national random sample of 851 adults age 18 and older, in English... The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 754 registered voters.
Demographics:
This poll is a D+5 poll, but most interestingly, it is a D+9 poll of people who live in counties that voted for Clinton by more than 10%.
When looking at the votes for each candidate by counties, we see this:
| Candidate | Trump Counties > 10% |
Swing Counties < 10% |
Clinton Counties > 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 63 | 41 | 30 |
| Joe Biden | 32 | 50 | 60 |
It looks like Trump is beating Biden by +3 based on "base" vote, but the Biden "base" is over-sampled by +9, suggesting that Trump's lead is greater.
13. Is your general impression of [candidate] very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable, or do you have no opinion?
| Candidate | Trump Counties > 10% |
Swing Counties < 10% |
Clinton Counties > 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 27 | -10 | -25 |
| Joe Biden | -8 | -9 | 22 |
Trump's favorability in his "base" beats Biden's "base" favorability by +5. Then factor in that Biden's base is over-sampled by +9 and the swing favorability is tied, and it looks like Trump is more favored overall.
17. Thinking about your current financial situation, would you say you are struggling to remain where you are financially, basically stable in your current financial situation, or is your financial situation improving?
| Candidate | Trump Counties > 10% |
Swing Counties < 10% |
Clinton Counties > 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Improving | 12 | 17 | 9 |
| Stable | 64 | 58 | 62 |
| Struggling | 23 | 23 | 28 |
Two-thirds of country are reporting that they are financially stable. The Biden "base" is struggling by +5, but again, this is over-sampled by +9.
It would seem that the country overall is feeling okay with the economy (pre-Covid-19).
I think this poll actually show optimism for Trump when looked at through the lens of candidate-base sentiment.
-PJ
The only poll I care about is who is ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Trump keeps them then Biden could win the popular vote by 3 or 4 or 5 and Trump would still be president
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