Posted on 03/21/2020 8:36:39 AM PDT by Hojczyk
The U.S. has the lowest per capita death rate of this group, tied with Austria, at 0.7 per million, up from 0.3 four days earlier.
Italy has the highest mortality rate by far, at 67 per million. It is too early to gauge the ultimate course of the epidemic, but in crude terms it looks as though Italy is heading for a death rate of something like 100 per million. It could easily go higher than that.
I don’t think the U.S. will experience a mortality rate anywhere near as high as Italy’s, for a number of reasons including our younger population, far fewer smokers, lower population density, a better health care system and early deployment of anti-viral drugs, some of which are likely to prove helpful.
But let’s assume the U.S. ultimately sees a mortality rate of 100 per million. That would be 143 times the current U.S. rate, not outside the realm of possibility. Do the math: if we have around 330 million people, and 100 die per million, that equals 33,000, which would be equivalent to the deaths from an average seasonal flu season. Maybe it’s worse than that; maybe by the time it runs its course, the death toll from COVID-19 rises to 200 per million, 286 times the current rate. That would still be less than the death toll from flu in the U.S. just two years ago.
Maybe the Wuhan virus will prove much worse than any of those crude assumptions suggest. It is too early to rule out that possibility. But policymakers need to consider the possibility that the damage done by the extreme measures being taken to slow the spread of the virus will ultimately prove to be greater than the harm done by the virus itself.
“But let’s assume the U.S. ultimately sees a mortality rate of 100 per million.”
Based on just this one sentence, this entire article should be ignored.
nothing
The numbers are so small in proportion to the total world population they are meaningless.
The numbers are media fodder
Italy allowed daily flights of potentially infected chinamen into their country to provide labor for the leather factories.
How’s that diversity working out for you EU scum?
70 per million
Dr Fugazzi tells us, more test, more trials..me and my Big Pharma buddies need to have our Cancun conference in 18 months and tell you it's ok to get better. You see the President fighting back against the deep state and their corporate cronies? They want you sick, paranoid and easy to control and continue their corporate crony hegemony. The media is lying to us and downplaying this works. It's a organized effort by the global left. We are living the movie Contagion #RemoveDrFugazziNow
The graph shows "Deaths per capita (millions)", or, to put it another way - "Deaths per million people".
How many of those dying in Italy were of Chinese dissent?
Using a population death rate for something that his only started spreading 2 months ago is stupid. Yeah, it looks low because it isn’t wide spread yet.
Also high rates of tobacco use and at least in the Venice, Milano, Torino triangle, the worst air pollution in Europe.
What I can’t figure out are the bad redults coming from Spain. Younger population and less pollution than Italy. Also in Germany, high positive numbers but very few fatalities.
Calif. has apparently given up on containment/flattening the curve. Not that there was ever enough testing being done to make this tactic very effective.
Sounds non-helpful.
A more relevant metric is CFR (# deaths/#positive).
To not want people to die of this virus is commendable, but at what cost? The loss of most of our economy? Or what?
We went over this ‘per capita’ description a few days ago because it did not say anything but ‘deaths per capita’. At least now the chart puts ‘millions’ in parentheses below ‘per capita’. NOW correct that part of the chart completely, and remove ‘capita’!
‘Per capita’ means ONE person. One person is not a million.
... Deaths in the USA ...
7,671 Deaths - Every Single Day ...
Heart Attack - 1,774
Cancer - 1,641
Accident (all kinds) - 466
Asthma, etc. - 439
Stroke - 401
Alzheimers - 333
Diabetes - 229
Flu/Pneumonia - 153
Kidney Failure - 139
Suicide - 129
Thanks. I know it’s always +/- some daily. Mortuaries do NOT run out of customers.
Country where death occurred
Age at death
Pre-existing conditions in the deceased (heart/lungs/immune system)
Italy is very hard hit a) because they're a major trading partner of China b) because Italy has had a birth rate close to zero for several decades and c) Italy has just about the worst health care system in the industrialized world.
It 70 per million.
” But policymakers need to consider the possibility that the damage done by the extreme measures being taken to slow the spread of the virus will ultimately prove to be greater than the harm done by the virus itself.” This is absolutely true.
I think a valid view is we do nothing to imperil the long term health of the economy. Hippocratic rule #1: Do No Harm.
Shutting everything down is like aggressive Chemo or blood letting.
Italian government bureaucrats are lazier than American government bureaucrats by several orders of magnitude.
Will you choose the riches of Freedom or the penury of safety...
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