"Some day this epidemic is gonna end."
Posted on 03/18/2020 7:45:15 PM PDT by Hojczyk
Michael Levitt is an “American-British-Israeli” chemist who won the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 2013.
Levitt explains one of the reasons why the spread of the disease slows:
The reason for the slowdown is due to the fact that exponential models assume that people with the virus will continue to infect others at a steady rate. In the early phase of COVID-19, that rate was 2.2 people a day on average.
“In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people,” Levitt said. “But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.”
Levitt also concludes that most people are naturally immune to COVID-19:
In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms.
“Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu,” Levitt said. Based on those figures, his conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.”
Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.
But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop,” Levitt said. “A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
By plotting the data forward, Levitt has predicted that the virus will likely disappear from China by the end of March.
Is it back to itsjustthefluitis?
Maybe.
Or maybe they were just able to fight it off better than others for whatever reason.
So, when does NYC [just to take a US hot spot] reach max newly infected peeps per day?
I also think Americans have a pretty healthy immune system. I’m hoping this virus ends it’s days soon.
***had a central air conditioning and heating system,***
Much like the 1976 American Legion convention in which so many died of what became known as Legionnaires’ disease.
Yup. Government and media created panic and depression.
I’m all in for panic.
Nope, just back to rational thinking. We’re not all going to die, no matter how loud the doomsayers scream! I mean we’re all going to die, just not all at once.
Interesting article. Thanks for posting it. Hope it gets read widely.
Does he not account for all of China being locked down in most of January and February and those same people aren’t running into others anymore? I don’t buy his reasoning it just stopped on its own. There probably is a lot of natural immunity but there is also tons of people that weren’t immune that caught it real quick. I think we are doing right thing just wish we would have quarantined anyone flying from Pacific area or Europe sooner.
Why would 97% already be immune to the virus?
Is it possible that one of the common cold coronaviruses grant’s immunity.
If so, we could vaccinate people just by giving them a coronavirus cold of one of the weaker strands.
“...The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms....”
***************************************************
The Cruise industry would be wise to invest in installation of anti-viral ultraviolet lights strategically placed in their ventilation systems ducts.
“We’re not all going to die, no matter how loud the doomsayers scream! I mean we’re all going to die, just not all at once.”
I thought the endless supply of toilet paper stashed away was going to ensure immortality. Damn was I bamboozled.
One of my co-workers: We’re all gonna die!!!
Me: Eventually.
"Some day this epidemic is gonna end."
What Hinderaker didn’t quote was this same guy also said, in the original article Hinderaker got the other quotes from:
“Currently, I am most worried about the U.S. It must isolate as many people as possible to buy time for preparations. Otherwise, it can end up in a situation where 20,000 infected people will descend on the nearest hospital at the same time and the healthcare system will collapse.”
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html
Encouraging but what has happened in China, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong has to be taken along with the very same controls used in those places to expect similar results. We have not done those things and until we do something similar we should not expect the same outcome.
The cruise ship outcome is also encouraging for air spread and a sloppy control of spread. It is a good and encouraging data point thought to think that is about as bad as the spread can get.
A part of me foolishly hopes this virus is really bad, bad enough to fit the “cure” that is being applied. The destruction of the economy and the long lasting effects of that and the long recovery. We will be turned inside out and arse holes over teacups before this is over. We will also be much much deeper in debt.
...very few new infections...
And indeed, just now on local night news, I heard that this is the first day that Hubei did NOT have a single new case.
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