Posted on 03/17/2020 7:30:44 PM PDT by NRx
Although it’s impossible to say how many Americans will die because of the new coronavirus, under a reasonable set of assumptions the number of fatalities could be high — potentially in the hundreds of thousands or more.
Deaths on that scale are not easy to grasp. To put the estimates in context, we’re comparing the possible toll with other leading causes of death in the United States in 2018, the most recent year with data available. We’ve started with an estimate from a University of Nebraska public health researcher, Dr. James Lawler, that was recently presented to hospital executives: 480,000 American deaths over the course of the illness known as Covid-19.
All of the estimates depend on two basic questions: How many Americans will be infected with the virus? And how many who are infected will end up dying? Our sliders allow you to consider a range of options.
As The New York Times reported last week, epidemiologists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently prepared four scenarios. Their calculations showed a large range of possible fatalities in the United States: between 200,000 and 1.7 million Americans over the course of Covid-19, assuming minimal efforts to contain it.
[See which places are most at risk of running out of hospital beds in different outbreak scenarios.]
Few things kill anywhere near so many people in this country. These comparisons assume that the entire coronavirus pandemic runs its course in one year, though it could well take longer.
Dr. Lawler’s estimate, 480,000 deaths, is higher than the number who die in a year from dementia, emphysema, stroke or diabetes. There are only two causes of death that kill more Americans: cancer, which kills just under 600,000 in a year, and heart disease, which kills around 650,000.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
ping
My guess is no. The virus won’t but mans stupidity can come closer.
How many died because of the old coronavirus? Indeed, how many coronaviruses have there been?
I predict it will be less than 30,000 which is the average number that die per year in the USA from Influenza.
Not to sidetrack from the issue, but considering the medical advancements that have been made to date, those are astounding numbers for cancer and heart disease.
No. The number of deaths will be a fraction of the number of pounds of TP people have horded.
The only thing that’s sobering is how FAKE the independent, rugged, independent thinking gun owning tough American persona for SO MANY on this board is.
I expect to see this many snivelers at DU
What a complete and utter disgrace.
Do us all a favor and go lock yourselves in your basement until this is over.
Real men are needed right now at this time in the US.
And you guys ain’t it
yup, and the climate change models by the experts say we’re all dead already,
reckless speculation fueling hysteria.
be concerned, take the precautions you take during winter and the flu season. don’t freak the hell out or worry about the experts. the experts that are in consensus rarely get anything right tgese days because they believe in crappy models and have their own personal agendas.
experts are normal people with flaws and faults and biases and other agendas. and it often affects their work. just like everyone else. experts are no better than any other people.
and this place should know that more than any other place, and we all seem to have forgotten this.
Once this is over I want the NY Times, NPR, CNN, Daily Mail etc. to be held accountable. This fear mongering is causing emotional distress and monetary losses. I find nothing more despicable as class action lawsuits but this is one case where I feel it is really warranted.
Do they include a comparison to deaths by abortion?
You want stone cold sobriety regarding any issue? Not a chance, and I’ll refrain from naming anyone..........
What the hell? So NYT has gone from, Trump’s not doing enough and we’re all going to die, to, posting death stats of things other than Wuhan Virus?
NYT flubros?
/s
“those are astounding numbers for cancer and heart disease.”
But everyone has to die from something. It used to be people died at 60-65 from heart attacks but now they live longer and their heart just gives out. It is a different type of death from heart disease.
“Real men are needed right now at this time in the US.
And you guys ain’t it”
Amen.
This doesn’t pass the smell test.
I have to ask. Is the NYT the only place putting out stories and ‘thoughtpieces’ worthy of discussion these days? If not why are there so many NYT posts here? If so I don’t understand why conservative outlets don’t expand beyond politics and countering and do some quality original stories themselves. For some reason rightwing media just seems alot more reactive so to speak even adjusting for size. Vice and Vox, as trash as their basic reporting and writing may be release some pretty popular human interest stories on youtube where they crisscross the globe while places like Fox and Breitbart sit around sucking their thumb.
Dunno bout cancer. But guaranteed it won’t cause as many deaths as abortion.
yup, and the climate change models by the experts say we’re all dead already,
—
+1 for noting the use of models for both climate change and this flu. Whereby a slight tweak of the numbers can spike the results.
It’s like the Drake Equation to determine the number of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations. Plug in certain values and you get an answer of thousands. Plug in lesser numbers and you get almost none.
My God even our side is sucking on the total BS of this narrative? Some of us are now implied to be “deniers” and so forth. I get the Corona is different and very dangerous but the swamp is leveraging this to the extreme. The “crisis” is already mission accomplished and the fruits are bearing nicely. America’s worst enemy is Americans and America when the left manipulates media,government,education and societal hysteria. Free Republic is tempting to jump the shark on this.
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