Please update us as data validates your analysis, or not. Very interesting.
That is a false choice. I'm in the camp that thinks this is serious and there is a overreaction at the same time.
This is absolutely great!
One question. Can we believe the numbers from China? They’ve been stuck at about 80K for at least a week. I find that hard to believe!
Thank you for your analysis.
Very fair analysis. The low number of US “recoveries” being reported is the biggest wrench in all this to me. I just don’t buy the numbers.
Less than 200,000 cases worldwide. Millions in the US alone were infected with H1N1 in 2009.
Bump Thanks Doc.
Thanks for the post, gas_dr. I feel like I may know you from somewhere in the past.
Stay safe, stay vigilant, and thanks again for the info.
Interesting. Bump to watch
Does weather and climate have anything to do with the numbers?
The serious flaw in these calculations and graphs is they fail to normalize for population. Spain, France, Italy, Iran and South Korea have populations in the 50 - 60 million range. The US has over 300 million. Choosing a flex point of 100 cases for the other countries equates to roughly 500 cases in the US. Also significant in evaluating the US is the fact that between 20 and 30 cases were imported from China or cruise ships. That number would not create a significant deviation at 500 - 600 case flex point but is highly significant at 100 cases.
The methodology applied is commendable but fails to account for all significant variable with respect to the US.
I sincerely hope you are right, because that would be great. My governor (Fauxgan) would then hopefully lift the statewide (and premature, IMO) shutdown on bars, restaurants (takeout still allowed), casinos, gyms and movie theaters. Beats sitting at home all the time.
FD: I’m not a “flu bro.”
Come on man/woman! No wild death rate prediction! Or a total fatalities for the USA prediction? Disappointing! ;-) Just kidding. Thanks for keeping it on the calmer/civil/scientific side!
If I had to place a bet on what the numbers will look like in 6 months, I would have to say “well past the bell curve peak”...hopefully flattened by the USA “social-distancing” effort that falls between China’s communist draconian lockdown, and the lack of early lock-down in Italy and the UK. With a fatality rate of somewhere between 0.3% and 0.8% and a bit less than 1 million cases. That is my “back of the napkin” amateur guess based on the #’s I am seeing so far. For a more scientific/statistical approach like yours, here are some to ponder:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Virus denier!!!
Thanks for sharing this information, very informative .
:)
Thank you for your work on this. If I’m understanding correctly, your projection (and hope) is that the total number infected in the U.S. will become approximately constant around March 23 +/-2. Which would mean the daily number of newly infected equals the number recovering? I’ve noticed on graphs that this number has remained nearly constant in China for 2 to 3 (?) weeks. That leaves a lot of people out there with the virus.
So, my question is, when can a 73 year old with heart disease safely go to the grocery store? I understand you can’t answer this question directly, but, any thoughts?
I don't think we can believe the Chinese graphs for a minute but I suppose that is all we have to work with. The others should compare more honestly. It would be nice to see Germany and GB in there as well.
I have to say I’m suspicious of the Chinese numbers, it’s like the whole thing just basically stopped, just like that, bang, it’s virtually done in a population bigger than US Europe, Japan and South Korea combined. Tim Cook of Apple says they are fully operational there and they have been for a week, but does he even know what’s going on in his own company? Apple/China has it’s own command structure which answers above all to President-for-Life Xi.
I believe it will slow down is doing so in S Korea, but Shouldn’t rely on China data.