Very fair analysis. The low number of US “recoveries” being reported is the biggest wrench in all this to me. I just don’t buy the numbers.
The number of US cases that are Serious or Critical (worldometers.info) also seems anomalously low (under 20?).
The low number of recoveries is because the cases are still classified as active, that is what makes the death cs recovery interesting and the parallel at 50% at around day 11. We should forecast the rapid increase in recoveries and diminishment of death over the next several days.
Otherwise, this is very different here than anywhere else, and then all bets are off.