Worldometer Analysis of Covid-19-SARS(2) infection rate and inflection points: A comparison of Six (6) Countries

Vanity | March 17, 2020 | Gas_dr

[gas_dr]

I have spent the last several days like most Americans somewhat baffled, perplexed and even a little nervous at the rapidly unfolding events as to CoVID-19. The community seems to have been divided into two groups, those who are advocating that there is nothing more than the common flu here and that there is vast overreaction, and those that advocate that this is a serious illness that for the safety of all requires drastic measures in order to prevent mass death and tragedy. If one looks closely, it is possible to find everything from death rates calculated at 0.1% - 14% and beyond.

Fair warning, I tend to fall in the previous camp and think that this is likely an overblown situation that appears to be gathering inertia, and I have gotten into several heated and admittedly emotional arguments about this current situation. For full disclosure, I am a critical care physician practicing in the United States, and the fear of the unknown probably drives to a small degree my emotion. So this evening, I have decided to put emotion aside, and truly conduct a retrospective analysis of the data that is present in a multivariant system and see where the data lead us.

I have discovered something interesting, and will simply present the data without commentary. I have analyzed from the worldometer website six countries: China, Italy, United States, South Korea, Spain, and France. I have been curious as to the timelines and increase in daily cases in countries that appear to have rampant disease, and countries that have flattened the curve.

Methodology: Utilizing a base case rate of 100 infections, I standardized the time to 6340 infections, which happens to be the current report of United States infections updated at 1800 EDT. Datasouce: Worldometers.info

CHINA: Time to equivalent cases of United States infections: +7 days. (571 cases -> 7,711 cases). Time to Peak of newly reported cases (2nd inflection point) +15 days from current US case load. After inflection point, total new cases fell dramatically

South Korea: Time to equivalent cases of United States Infections: +15 days (100 cases - 6593 cases). Time to peak of newly reported cases (2nd inflection point) +4 days. After inflection point, total new cases fell dramatically.

Italy: Time to equivalent cases United States Infections: +15 days. (75 - 6,387). Time to peak of newly reported cases +7 days. This is where the data may become predictive. Between March 15, 16, and 17 there was a relatively flattening of new cases and decline in the last 24 hours reported period. What will be a test of this model is what happens to the cases in this 24 hour period. According to the other models, this should be the peak.

United States: Time from 100 cases - 6340 cases +15 days. If this model is predictive, we can ascertain in the next 4 - 7 days based on number of cases and shape of curve if we appear to follow South Korea numbers, or Italian and China Numbers. The current acting head of HHS repeatedly states out numbers track South Korea.

Spain: Time from 75 cases - 6391 cases +13 days. Today is day +2 from the relatively time constant 100 -> 6500 cases period.

France: Time from 100 cases - 6633 cases +16 days. Today is day +1 from relative time constant too >6000 cases.

Analysis: At this time, in the six major countries actively reporting all cases and under greatest scrutiny, there appears to be a constant of +14 days to grow from 100 - 6500 cases. The percentage variation in this is extremely small. From the time this 15 day time constant occurs, there is divergent data to the second inflection point in countries who are reporting a decrease in overall numbers of new cases (curve flattening). That time constant is from 4 - 7 days (South Korea (4) - China (7) - Italy (7)) If this is predictive model, what we should see it a flattening of the Italian curve starting today -- that would track with China. In the United States we are between (4) and (7) days from flattening if the data hold. The divergence of cases added between day 4 and day 7 are as few as 1500 new cases as in South Korea, and as many as 20,300 new cases in Italy, which fits an exponential growth from day 4 - 7.

If the Italian numbers are flat tomorrow and the next day, the model appears will become increasingly predictive. Questions that remain to be answered: Are aggressive measures able to reduce the time to second inflection as in the case of South Korea? If so, then we can predict in America that maximal saturation will be March 21. If it trends toward China and Italy, then it will be March 24.

I will update this as data become available. I look forward to reasoned discussion regardless of personal opinion as to the scope of this pandemic.

[icclearly]

“Eliminating Chinese covid-19 statistics is necessary due to unreliability, prior history, and the politicization of those statistics.”

This is probably the biggest hoax ever played on the American people. While there is no doubt there is a disease, the panic component is absolutely overwhelming. I was around when the media and dems railroaded Nixon out of office at the expense of all Americans. This is orders of magnitude worse.

[icclearly]

“Here is a link to the IDEA equation if you want to read about it. I think you will see why people think this approach works. Its at science direct and there is a pdf link at the top of the page:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436516300305";

Excellent article — on Ebola! Where is his analysis of Wuhan? I, for one, would be interested in seeing that work. In the meantime, the doc’s back of the envelope sure makes sense to me. In my opinion, a few more days of Italy reports will provide us with an excellent clue if he is correct (canary in the coal mine).

[gas_dr]

Thank for your kind word. I truly don’t doubt that there could be a more nuanced statistical analysis. This whole analysis took me about 75 minutes. I think it’s probably a little better than my guess is better than your guess as was suggested but it is retrospective in a highly complex system. But the data show similarities that are striking.

As for the China numbers I take them with a grain of salt. But there is a large sample. Day 1 reporting for them is > 500 cases but it extrapolates to 15 days die the time constant I suggested.

Whatever the data show I do believe it is safe to conclude that the time is at hand. We will know soon.

[BDParrish]

Thanks gas_dr for all your help!

I offer a link to the latest by Justin Lessler the epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins. This is from the 13th instant written for the Washington Compost. It is written for laymen so take it for what it is worth. His ideas though are primarily coming from an understanding of the structure of the germ itself. His friends in China ran the sequences on this germ and it is pretty clear what it is. If it is not going to behave like Lessler says, we ought to be able to point to the germ characteristics and say why. I’m all ears if anybody knows.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/coronavirus-pandemic-immunity-vaccine/2020/03/12/bbf10996-6485-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

And thanks again Doc, if one grateful soul is worth anything, I do thank you!

[gas_dr]

I am truly touched and grateful for your kindness as well. It is an interesting time. It’s hard not to give into emotion and it’s always easier to normalize and deal with statistics using the retrospectoscope.

So here we are. Using data. Trying to figure this out together. But we will get through this without a doubt.

[BDParrish]

“Excellent article-—on Ebola!”

Excuse me. I offered this as an example of the methodology. I thought you would understand that the same approach is in place today.

[Uncle Sham]

"So, my question is, when can a 73 year old with heart disease safely go to the grocery store?"

There are many stores that deliver to your door as well as stage your called-in order for you to pick up in their parking lot where an attendant loads it into your car. Also there are online sources for groceries which are ordered then delivered to your door by the mailman, UPS, and Fed Ex.

I would bet that your local grocery would fill your order and load it into your car if you explain your situation to them.

[icclearly]

“Excuse me. I offered this as an example of the methodology. I thought you would understand that the same approach is in place today.”

Yes. I understand. But, where is his analysis of Wuhan? I mean, that is what most of us are interested in, isn’t it? A prediction of Wuhan as the doc provided? In other words, it’s the results — not the process (at the moment).

[icclearly]

Question. Why is NY being hit so hard? Any data on the source of most of these cases (cruise ship. Chinese, community, nursing homes etc.)?

[BDParrish]

I offered this link to gas_dr in my post 144(?).
This is Justin Lessler giving his laymans summary. We’ve got a hard road ahead...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/coronavirus-pandemic-immunity-vaccine/2020/03/12/bbf10996-6485-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

If you would be so kind, I would appreciate your thought on this one though I would not ask you to waste your time. He does not give you the scientific basis for his conclusions, but I think I could point you to all that if you want.

[oldasrocks]

Personally I think everyone is 2nd guessing what this will do. After people start getting back together will we see a surge of new cases from supercarriers?

I think it would be easier to understand now a woman thinks.

[Cedar]

bookmark

[KC Burke]

Great thread.

[willk]

Could someone explain this to someone like myself who is graph compromised. I think I understand that it is a good sign the flattening out of Italy’s new cases the 13th through the 17th . Today’s (the 18th) results show that there was an increase in cases of 4207 cases that is a jump in actual numbers but still only a 13% increase (the 3rd straight day of 13%). Are we still “so far so good”?

[BDParrish]

"I think it would be easier to understand now a woman thinks."

HaHa!

Whereas understanding a woman requires years of intimate knowledge, this virus is simple. It is single strand RNA held together by lipids. It is going to behave inside the body like the others do unless there is some reason why not. There is a split in the spike protein. Well, that's different. That should make it more virulent in cases that are susceptible to that, and sure enough it is.

Whereas a woman changes what she wants on a daily basis, and on at least a monthly basis she does not even know what she wants as her hormones fluctuate, this virus wants one thing only. It wants to replicate.

Virology is not a new science. Epidemiology is not a new science. What some are saying about the spread of this virus cannot be true, unless this virus is going to reveal some drastic earth-shattering new principle and revolutionize virology and epidemiology for all time.

I'm all ears....

[icclearly]

"Could someone explain this to someone like myself who is graph compromised. I think I understand that it is a good sign the flattening out of Italy’s new cases the 13th through the 17th . Today’s (the 18th) results show that there was an increase in cases of 4207 cases that is a jump in actual numbers but still only a 13% increase (the 3rd straight day of 13%). Are we still “so far so good”?"

The doc did an outstanding job in his original post here on 3/17.  Below is a summary of his conclusion:

"Our accelerated rise began after MAR 7-9 (98, 116, 106... then 163, 290, 307, 396). If we follow the path of the other bell curves, where the rise only lasts for 13-17 days, then our plateau should begin this weekend, and the decline should begin next week."

You should read the full report and especially the logic he used to reach his conclusion.  I believe it is solid -- but his projection for Italy did not hold up in today's report (which reflecte yesterday's numbers).

His basic analysis is taken from several countries new case reports and his prediction was when posted that Italy should peak about now (3/17).  I posted the chart below (Figure 2) the next day of Italy (3/18), which seemed to show Italy peaking.  That was yesterday and this is today.  Based on today's case report from yesterday for Italy (3/18) and the graph below (Figure 1),  Italy shows a significant jump in reported cases.  By the way, these charts are from Worldometer.

On the surface, you might conclude that his projection of Italy being the "canary in the coal mine" is not a positive sign from yesterday's Italy data.  My view is it is too early to make that call.  We need to see a few more days.  The other point is that Italy is an unusual country with a very close relationship with China -- and Wuhan in particular, plus the population is older.

We should watch this for a few more days.  The doc's hypothesis for China (if you can believe the data) and Korea (which I believe) are holding up. I am hopeful and continue to think this is one massive boondoggle! Time will tell.

Figure 1 -- From 3/18/20

click on image to enlarge

Figure 2 -- From 3/17/20

click on image to enlarge

worldometer

[NoLibZone]

Any new dates on when we peak?
Thank you.

[NoLibZone]

My Kids EMS FD.

His House is almost out of gowns.

They will ave to use full setup with tanks and masks to do EMS.

[gas_dr]

I will try to post something tonight — it has been a little busy with single fatherhood and someone out of school for 4 weeks all of the sudden. In any event, Italy has some non reassuring numbers, the other countries are all declining.

There is almost certainly a saturation of testing which is an interesting variable — If we unleash testing and there are a whole of (+), that drives the rates of death down, but that won’t be the headline. That would require some nuance for people to understand — the government will continue its call for (as Speaker Pelosi stated) immediate seizure of the means of production — sounds a little like Communism to me.

In any event, the numbers will go up in America the next three days. I Still believe that we will peak on or about 22 March.

Lets follow the data to where they lead us. More tonight.

[musicman]

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