86% of people with coronavirus are walking around undetected, study says

nypost ^ | 03/17/2020 | Jackie Salo

[ChicagoConservative27]

“Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says.

Six of every seven cases – 86% — were not reported in China before travel restrictions were implemented, driving the spread of the virus, according to a study Monday in the journal Science.

“It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” said co-author Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University Mailman School, according to GeekWire.

Using computer modeling, researchers tracked infections before and after the Chinese city of Wuhan’s travel ban.

[Pres Raygun]

The test only checks for active virus. FOr a real evaluation, we need a test for anti-bodies.

Yes I realize that. If a test for antibodies exists, then we should be using it to understand where we are in the course of this epidemic. But until that test is available a large random test for the active virus will allow us to estimate the number of current infections within the total population and from there get a better understanding of the true death rate. The 2-4% death rate numbers thrown around are simply the number of deaths divided by the number of positive tests. But the current number of positive tests are way under representing the actual number of current infections and thus results in a very large over estimation the actual death rate.

[DUMBGRUNT]

Thank you for responding.

I have asked here on FR and other places plus everyone I know. You are the first that has had contact.

Yesterday, I had a regularly scheduled appointment with my Physician, it is his opinion that we will have a better view of the direction it is going in about ten days. They had two confirmed cases in his hospital.
He recommended avoiding groups of people and frequent hand washing.
He suspects it will dissipate.

No, he is not an epidemiologist but a very good Physician and interesting guy.

[WildHighlander57]

Old thread here:

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3825805/posts?page=1#1

[nickcarraway]

If more people have it finished known, wouldn’t the death rate be lower?

[Centaur]

Just received this from a friend who is an epidemiologist who had worked with Dr. Fauci some time ago. It explains a lot of the hubbub:

"There are many differences between this virus and its predecessors but potentially the most important is the case fatality rate. On the main stream media they call it a mortality rate which is a wrong epidemiologic term. A mortality rate is the number of dead over say 100,000 population. In case fatality rate is the number dead over the number infected. The usual flu has a case fatality rate of 0.1%. the swine flu of 2009, the rate was similar to that, but univariate rates are misleading. For the coronavirus the case fatality rate for young healthy people is probably much less than 1% however for elderly people specially what underlying disease is the case fatality rate may be closer to 15%. That is why it is so essential for the elderly, especially someone who is frail to avoid all contact. If the coronavirus infects 60 million Americans, upwards of 1.5 million will die."

[Governor Dinwiddie]

Unless testing becomes more widely available we can't make any rational judgment on the state of the asymtomatic individuals. They could be covid free or they could be a silent carrier.

[Governor Dinwiddie]

Unless testing becomes more widely available we can't make any rational judgment on the state of the asymtomatic individuals. They could be covid free or they could be a silent carrier.

[datricker]

Netflix has it. Several folks in the la office have it.

[gov_bean_ counter]

As with all viral infections.

[BDParrish]

It is a coronoavirus so it behaves like one. The second infection pathway using the ACE2 receptor explains why it is deadlier than flu in certain populations of infected.

I heard Dr. Fauci say that the CFR for flu was .1% but I do not know how he got that. Is it this year? We are having a very mild year for the flu, so I heard.

Anyway the overall CFR for flu is telling you that the germ is killing the vulnerable just like coronaviruses and flus always do. The Spanish flu ran estimated 2.5% or higher, because that includes all the youth patients who died. That is not happening now with COVID-19. A CFR of .87%, the figure out of S. Korea, reflects the additional people killed by the second infection pathway.

[BushCountry]

There’s no vaccine and no cure. If you don’t take this seriously you will lose 10% of your population within months. The economy will repair itself when this is over.

There are several cures in testing now that show promising results. These are drugs already on the market and showing progress: Favilavir, Actemra, REGN3048-3051, blood transfusions from survivors, hydrochloroquine, chloroquine, remdesivir, lopinavir, ritonavir, kaletra and aluvia.

Three or four vaccines are in human testing. Before you say, it will take 18 months before we use any of them. Know this, China has a law that allows them to short circuit the process for humanitarian reasons. I suspect that their vaccine (a rip off of ours) will show great results quickly (in less than a month they can administer). Do you honestly believe we will wait 18 months if they have remarkable success?

South Korea’s recovery vs deaths / new cases is extremely bright without a vaccine or your non-existent cures. They have done a remarkable job.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

Lastly, I pray that you and co-workers get through this without any loses or long term affects. Godspeed.

[StAnDeliver]

"Is it this year? We are having a very mild year for the flu, so I heard."

Influenzas A (H1N1)pdm09 and B /Victoria were co-dominant,a rare once-in-every-20-year "double barrel" flu season. I had B/Victoria after the holidays and it damn near killed me.

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu." CDC adds it was the worst flu season for children (H1N1 noted above) in a decade.

The silver lining here is that the US has a deep pool of immune-active individuals from a wild flu season. Italy did not.

[The Truth Will Make You Free]

There’s about 50x the cases walking around contagious without symptoms. Something like 80% end up with minor or no symptoms and don’t produce as many viruses as those who are seriously ill. Sunday I estimated 1/300 to 1/3000 were contagious in our city.

As for a case “close to home” a co-worker of my wife’s is now in ICU with pneumonia and CV. He was in her office last Monday or Tuesday when the reported cases in our state were 2, and on Thursday she exchanged a gate opener he had handled. Friday until yesterday she wasn’t feeling the best but today is fine. Low-grade CV? I was unusually tired one day and oddly dizzy for a moment. We are healthy taking a collection of vitamins including C, D3, green tea, etc., and are outside daily. We also pray and believe God for health and healing. For now though we’re not visiting other family members.

[Atticus]

Millions of potential asymptotic carriers were recently sent home to their parents from their colleges and universities after mingling with other students from all over the country and around the world.

[McGruff]

Must be a pretty mild case if it can’t be detected.

[gogeo]

You feel the Chinese overreacted?

I think I misunderstood your post. I was wrong.

[Magic Fingers]

No worries, thanks.

[Svartalfiar]

Can the alarmist here now stop claiming the death rate in China is 3.4%? This study proves its nowhere near that.

This "study" used computer modeling to guess how many people might have gotten the virus, but had no symptoms. Which is impossible to tell, they can set the infection / interaction rate to any numbers to get the final result they want. And likely using Chinese official numbers for part of the formula, and Lord knows those can't be trusted at all. Garbage in, Garbage out.

The most accurate one we have would be South Korea, who has done the most extensive testing of the wider populace, which means many of these stealth infections can be confirmed as infections. Right now, they have 84 deaths and 8400 cases, meaning their MINIMUM death rate is 1%, if every single case recovers. So far, they have 1540 recoveries, so the current fatality rate is at 5.2%, so that means, given the current SK situation, their final fatality rate will likely be between 1% and 5%. (Unlikely to be higher, as recoveries lag deaths so they shouldn't see a death spike any higher than the current death to recovery CFR.)

I would bet cold hard cash that China's actual numbers are more than that, probably double or triple, if not larger.

[sickoflibs]

RE:”Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says.....
COVID-19 has spread across the world to 182,400 people, causing at least 7,100 deaths, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University.”

7100/182400 ~ 4 % fatality rate

But at the 86% rate above that would make the 182400 grow to ~ 912000 and the fatality rate shrinks to 0.8% using this authors own numbers.

[bert]

Fake news

From New York, home of the grossly unprepared Gov Cuomo