Posted on 03/17/2020 4:52:18 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
LONDON - A piece of research that helped convince the British government to impose more stringent measures to contain COVID-19 painted a worst case picture of hundreds of thousands of deaths and a health service overwhelmed with severely sick patients.
In a sharp toughening of Britain’s approach to the outbreak on Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson closed down social life in the world’s fifth largest economy and advised those over 70 with underlying health problems to isolate.
The projection study, by a team led by Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, used new data gathered from Italy, where the infectious disease epidemic has surged in recent weeks.
Comparing the potential impact of the COVID-19 disease epidemic with the devastating flu outbreak of 1918, Ferguson’s team said that with no mitigating measures at all, the outbreak could have caused more than half a million deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States.
Even with the government’s previous plan to control the outbreak - which involved home isolation of suspect cases but did not include restrictions on wider society - could have resulted in 250,000 people dying “and health systems...being overwhelmed many times over,” the study said.
With the measures outlined - including extreme social distancing and advice to avoid clubs, pubs and theaters - the epidemic’s curve and peak could be flattened, the scientists said.
“This is going to place huge pressure on us as a society, and economically,” said Azra Ghani, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial.
This study helped change the British government’s position, according to those involved with the decision. The government said it had accelerated its plans “the advice of the experts” and that the new measures had always been “part of the government’s action plan”.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Sobering coronavirus study prompted Britain to toughen its approach
Well they were sober when they handed it in, at least.
Used the Worst country with a yuge chinese presence, as I understand it...and use that as your bible for this illness.
makes sense
A study by some very very very very very very very smart people who have very big degrees I’m sure. And they have lots of real world experience I’m sure.
Uh huh, right. The problem with data is the PhDs who flaunt it make the ignorant assumption that the data is good. Usually, it is not. Data crunchers, scientists, analysts, usually have no street smarts, no understanding of how a paycheck is derived, where money actually comes from, how customer behaviors are studied, normal life stuff. No, instead, they take their data prima facie, and move on...multivariate analysis (as an e.g.), etc. That’s not the real world. Taking into account count the Chinese migrant workers in the northern Italy leather industry would have been a wee bit important. Single payor healthcare system in Italy. Deaths in Italy, avg age 81. I’ll take my 21 yr old budding chemical engineer son’s street smart understanding of the world over 99.9% of PhDs’ anytime. My 18 year old even challenges him in that category. My to also don’t have a hidden agenda.
I trust him more too..
To put in perspective the panic they are causing, a friend just told me that she thinks her CAT has the coronavirus.
:)
The cat only comes into contact with her. And she’s fine.
But the cat has it.
The US has gone mad and it’s trying to take all of us with it.
Well, they are awfully clever...
China?
That data is reliable...
Yes I know they used Italy...
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
The false positive rate was 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.
Needs a CAT scan to verify...
This is where the rats try to get you coming or going. Either you ignore them and they pan your “inaction,” or you “do something” and they say you only did something because they made you do it. Treacherous jerks, the rats.
" Coronavirus can be transmitted through faeces, Chinese University study confirms, with experts suggesting stool tests as alternative screening tool
Some respiratory system specimens tested negative for Covid-19 but coronavirus was detected in faecal samples from all 14 patients in study None of the urine specimens contained the virus, and it was only detected in the blood of four patients."
more here:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3075609/coronavirus-can-be-transmitted-through-faeces
They’re modern day monsters.
Just playing devil’s advocate here... When it comes rolling around the northern hemisphere next fall, we doing the same thing then too? I guess the next few months in Australia, NZ, Africa will give us a good clue as to what to expect...
GB is a police state anyway; every single thing one does is monitored by CCTV, one’s social media posts can make one liable to jail if the state doesn’t like what you’re saying, it’s economically stagnant, the health system is already nationalized and thus already “overburdened.” The socialists who lost the election to Johnson have found their way of getting the truly Marxist society they openly desired which is why they didn’t win. But now they can cry “crisis” and impose it.
I think it is a serious mistake for us to follow them down this path, and it’s a path from which we will not be able to come back.
So stool samples are most accurate for the testing. Would the demand for testing be as popular if people had to stand in line with their stool samples?
I think the hope is that we will have a vaccine ready “next time”.
Personally, I’d go for herd immunity “this time”. Trashing our entire economy isn’t smart.
No need...they’ll just use longer swabs..
In San Francisco, “Hey you! You in the chaps! Get the hell out of the line. We already did you five times!”
“Trashing our entire economy isn’t smart.”
Then the stock exchange should be shut down. I don’t need Mike Bloomberg’s gas disappearing half the “wealth” in the country.
I haven’t seen Trump do anything I think is inappropriate to stop the spread of a virus, whose level of contagion has been demonstrated. He has left matters far more in local or private control than I even believed possible, at this point. He says that the Market will take care of itself. He has urged calm, stating that this is a disease one can expect to live through. He has done this to the point of criticism of how seriously he takes this.
I believe that the Federal Government, under Trump, has responded admirably, to this virus.
The American People, not so much. The MSM, if you consider them people, are a partisan voice for chaos and destruction. The “Voice of the Virus”. The “Market” doesn’t know what the word “investment” means.
The “Government” SHOULD be able to do things to help this. Stopping travel, closing borders, urging private and local response are all good, and have been done well. National resources like the CDC, I will admit, suck. They belong in a lab, and not in front of a camera, or making decisions.
“The cat only comes into contact with her.”
Unless the cat is a Persian - which of course means that cat has some Iranian blood in it.
It’s not out of the question that the cat was either in Iran recently or has been in contact with people from Iran here.
You can’t take your friend’s word for it.
LOL
Vaccine becomes available soon.
A British dossier. Where have I heard of that before?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.