Posted on 03/04/2020 11:24:23 AM PST by Red Badger
Nine of the seats are poised to be flipped from blue to red while the one red district at risk looks like it may stay red in November.
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Beneath the cover of a contentious presidential primary race that gave Establishment Democrats hope, the arguably biggest takeaway of the night is going to be buried. But Democrats took note and the implications are terrifying for them.
While Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden did battle on the national stage from coast to coast, several states were also holding primary elections for lower offices. There were some good storylines in high-profile Senate races that will supplement Biden vs. Sanders talk in the news cycle, but the part you likely won’t hear much about was California’s primary for all 54 congressional seats. Why won’t you hear about it elsewhere? Because nine Democratic seats can clearly be flipped and the one Republican seat in jeopardy seems poised to stay red.
This wasn’t the news the DNC wanted to hear. It’s definitely not the news Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi wanted to hear as it’s the first real indicator that her gavel is at risk.
Keep two things in mind. First, these aren’t nine seats that are deemed “in play” through some election miracle. These are nine seats currently held by Democrats where Republicans have the upper hand based on analysis of Tuesday’s primary votes. Second—and this is very important to understand—with only one statewide ballot measure, the main draw was the Democratic presidential primary in which Republicans may not vote. That means that even without the draw of a presidential primary choice, nine seats showed Republicans either within striking distance or outright beating Democrats.
The “jungle primary” system for congressional seats means everyone gets the same ballot choices. The top two finishers in the primary will go head-to-head in the general election. Based on these criteria, a shocking number of Democratic seats are now in jeopardy in November. Let’s break them down one-by-one.
District 7 98% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Ami Bera (Dem) ● 44.5% 37,120
Buzz Patterson (GOP) 38.9% 32,410
Jon Ivy (GOP) 7.8% 6,488
Jeff Burdick (Dem) 6.6% 5,524
Chris Richardson (Grn) 2.3% 1,892
Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera had no trouble beating the other Democrat nor the Green Party candidate, but Republicans Buzz Patterson and Jon Ivy combined to beat him. Though they combine for 46.7% of the vote, the presidential primary boost Bera received did not give him the significant lead he would have hoped for as a Sacramento incumbent.
Patterson, a former carrier of the “nuclear football” for President Clinton, is an outspoken conservative and former Air Force Lt. Colonel. If he can get some wind on his back, he has a strong chance of flipping the seat and beating the incumbent.
District 10 58% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Josh Harder (Dem) ● 38.9% 22,584
Ted Howze (GOP) 38.2% 22,179
Bob Elliott (GOP) 14.7% 8,536
Marla Livengood (GOP) 3.4% 1,981
Mike Barkley (Dem) 3.0% 1,712
Ryan Blevins (Dem) 1.9% 1,130
At the time of this article there was only 58% reported, but incumbent Democrat Josh Harder is only at 38.9%, barely edging ahead of Republican Ted Howze. Republicans combined for 56.3% of the vote.
District 16 92% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Kevin Cookingham (GOP) 38.5% 26,129
Jim Costa (Dem) ● 37.5% 25,401
Esmeralda Soria (Dem) 18.4% 12,455
Kimberly Williams (Dem) 5.6% 3,820
This was an unusual primary in which only one Republican ran. But that Republican, Kevin Cookingham, is in the lead. Granted, Democrats have the lion’s share of the total votes, but incumbent Democrat Jim Costa is clearly in trouble with his own base; this is the first time he’s faced other Democrats for his 16th district seat. It’s also the only time he’s come in second in the primary.
District 21 86% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
David Valadao (GOP) 54.1% 21,577
TJ Cox (Dem) ● 35.3% 14,098
Ricardo De La Fuente (Dem) 7.8% 3,129
Roque De La Fuente (GOP) 2.7% 1,09
Republican David Valadao narrowly lost his seat in 2018 to Democrat TJ Cox. He wants his seat back, and if the primary is any indicator he’s poised to do just that. He easily defeated the field of Cox plus a Republican and Democrat (oddly both named De La Fuente).
In a strange twist, Ricardo De La Fuente also won a primary… in Texas. He was running for congressional seats in two states. That’s something to unpack in the future. For now, Valadao is the story as he is in good shape going into the general election.
District 24 87% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Salud Carbajal (Dem) ● 51.8% 74,099
Andy Caldwell (GOP) 44.5% 63,602
Kenneth Young (NPP) 3.7% 5,343
The last two elections, Democrat Salud Carbajal has easily won CA-24, defeating his opponent by over 17-points in 2018. But he wasn’t facing Republican Andy Caldwell before and this primary shows that Caldwell is within striking distance. Had there been a Republican presidential primary, he may have even overtaken the incumbent.
Now, he has until November to prove to voters that he should win the seat.
District 25 55% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Christy Smith (Dem) 30.2% 19,423
Mike Garcia (GOP) 27.4% 17,620
Steve Knight (GOP) 20.4% 13,136
Cenk Uygur (Dem) 4.8% 3,066
David Lozano (GOP) 3.9% 2,501
Getro Elize (Dem) 3.0% 1,910
Anibal Valdez-Ortega (Dem) 2.6% 1,645
George Papadopoulos (GOP) 2.2% 1,421
Robert Cooper (Dem) 2.0% 1,292
Otis Cooper (NPP) 1.2% 770
Christopher Smith (Dem) 1.0% 640
Other Candidates (undefined) 1.3% 803
Ah, the 25th district. This is a mess. Vacated by disgraced Congresswoman Katie Hill, the former red seat flipped in 2018. Now, a dozen candidates, including high-profile names like George Papadopoulos and Cenk Uygur, are trying to grab it.
But it was Democrat Christy Smith and Republican Mike Garcia who popped in at #1 and #2. With 55% of the vote in, Republicans combine for 53%. It’s looking strong to be flipped back to red in November.
District 39 83% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Young Kim (GOP) 52.4% 48,345
Gil Cisneros (Dem) ● 42.6% 39,270
Steve Cox (NPP) 5.0% 4,585
This one should be a no-brainer, a correction from a horrible 2018 flip that turned the seat blue. It’s also a rematch of 2018, only this time Republican Young Kim is in the driver’s seat.
District 45 100% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Katie Porter (Dem) ● 48.1% 62,552
Greg Raths (GOP) 18.9% 24,582
Don Sedgwick (GOP) 13.9% 18,002
Peggy Huang (GOP) 11.3% 14,692
Lisa Sparks (GOP) 4.2% 5,426
Christopher Gonzales (GOP) 2.5% 3,278
Rhonda Furin (GOP) 1.1% 1,399
The 45th district is another casualty of the so-called “blue wave” of 2018 with Elizabeth Warren acolyte Katie Porter narrowly winning the seat. She faced six Republicans in the primary, and while she won handily, she didn’t get to 50% with Republicans combining for 51.9%. Now, Greg Raths will face her in the general election. If Republicans unite behind him, Congresswoman Porter will have just one term in DC.
District 48 100% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Harley Rouda (Dem) ● 43.7% 56,943
Michelle Steel (GOP) 36.7% 47,822
Brian Burley (GOP) 12.8% 16,654
Richard Mata (AIP) 2.7% 3,546
John Schuesler (GOP) 2.6% 3,389
James Griffin (GOP) 1.4% 1,826
Like the 45th district, the 48th featured a single-term incumbent Democrat who took a ride on the 2018 “blue wave” to win a traditionally red seat. But he’ll be facing Michelle Steel in the general election with more than 10-points to make up against Republicans.
District 50 62% of precincts reporting CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Ammar Campa-Najjar (Dem) 34.4% 38,648
Darrell Issa (GOP) 24.7% 27,777
Carl DeMaio (GOP) 21.1% 23,711
Brian Jones (GOP) 10.9% 12,261
Marisa Calderon (Dem) 5.1% 5,742
Nathan Wilkins (GOP) 2.0% 2,294
Other Candidates (undefined) 1.8% 2,071
This was the race to watch in California, the one Democrats are hoping to flip following the resignation of Duncan Hunter in January. Two strong, local Republicans were competing for the second slot to face Ammar Campa-Najjar. At the time of this article, it’s unclear whether Darrell Issa or Carl DeMaio will make it to the general election.
Whichever one does will have the upper hand as Democrats could not combine for 40% of the primary vote.
It’s official. The House is up for grabs. There are nine seats held by Democrats in trouble in radical progressive California while all of the Republican seats are safe. Nancy Pelosi’s days with the gavel appear to be limited. Again.
My Congressman, the great Tom McClintock in CA-4, got 54% in the jungle primary. Fourth District will be a hold for the GOP
we win most of these. This time the GOP plans to do their own ballot harvesting.We learned our lesson last time. Its legal in Cali
Earlier post on Uygur on twit brought these comments;
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3821625/posts
GOP candidates running in Californica should seriously consider this
In political campaigns while the use of Social Electronic Formats are useful in presenting political positions. Relying solely on using those venues is a mistake because of their SEF content limitations and media bias .
Consideration of the use of reprinted material including handouts and flyers such as of articles in FR and the planning of area saturation distribution known as “blitzing” in the targeted area is essential of one wants to win.
Yeah, it’s almost harvest season.
Impeachment awoke a sleeping giant, and filled it with a terrible resolve.
we win most of these. This time the GOP plans to do their own ballot harvesting.We learned our lesson last time. Its legal in Cali
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Sure hope you’re right.
Hopefully we learned lessons in FL & GA too
This is why I hound President Trump on an almost weekly Tweet to hold a couple of rallies in California and carry some of these down-ticket guys across the finish line.
Great job of posting all that info, RB!
Sure looks like the GOPs have a good shot at taking those seats, if voters will shift to the leading GOP candidate.
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