Posted on 03/01/2020 5:41:08 PM PST by Enlightened1
Here are the stats. It is a BIG NOTHING BURGER.
The Flu is far worse and nothing is being said.
https://www.worldometers.info/
and
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
(Excerpt) Read more at worldometers.info ...
.
“This is fake and engineered by Leftist to crash our economy and blame President Trump.”
If this is fake it will not crash the economy.
The economy will crash if nothing is done and the virus becomes an endemic inside the US. What’s 2% of 320 million?
Re-electing Trump is not going to be a cake walk for him or us. Any of the Democrat candidates could win, as well anyone who wants to enter if this goes far enough into a brokered convention.....so with how the Demorats operate never take for granted that Trumps a sure thing....he's not. ...Heck they're using this Corona virus and the potential health of the people as a weapon against Trump nothing is past them doing or abusing.
You must also be under the impression that his post was meaningful. Let's fix that, again.
There have been over 80,000 deaths from the flu. But that's from a total number of cases in the millions. 15 million in the US alone.
Less than 100,000 people have been diagnosed with the Corona virus and more than 3,000 have died. You don't have to be a math whiz to which has a higher death rate.
And the comparison misses the whole point, regardless. Less than 100,000 people have had the Corona virus because it is new and just beginning its spread. It takes very very little thought to be able to project an uncontrolled spread into the future. Somehow even that little bit of thought seems to be outside the grasp of some people, but still.
The very real prospect is that the virus spreads throughout the human population and we end up with millions of cases of it, too. What do you think those flu stat comparisons look like then? That's the whole point. That's what people are concerned about. It's not constrained to only the people that already have it. Geez.
To be clear, it is not the end of world. It is not going to wreck civilization and cause the zombie apocalypse. Yes, there's a ton of stupid paranoia being posted. But it really is very real threat that could kill millions of people, and cause very significant disruption in our economies and healthcare systems. Stupid comparisons to current flu stats do absolutely nothing at all to argue otherwise.
My wife and I are just getting over the flu. Knocked us on our asses for about 8 days.
Less than 2% infected actually die from it.
Less than 2% of those reported as infected, have died-so-far.
More than half of those reported as infected...are still infected.
The raw numbers are higher than they will be after people have had it long enough to recover from it, and there are an unknown number of unknown cases (though until the ‘community infected’ began to show up, for those outside of China the number known to be infected and the number of actual infected were pretty close). That said, the 2% number is just innumerate silliness at this point.
The thing is this may very well come in several waves over the next year or two, and there’s no guarantee that the second wave won’t be even worse, as was the case in 1918.
You’re going to be so disappointed. Again.
I’ve been pointing this out! The Coronavirus Groupies ask us to ignore this while they tell us with a straight face that COVID-19 “is more deadly!”
They will NOT deal with the actual numbers in a meaningful way! All they can do is provide conjecture and fear! It’s like dealing with hard core Leftists trying to convince us about the destruction coming from Globull Warming!
I’m weary of this sh*t already!
The thing is this may very well come in several waves over the next year or two, and there’s no guarantee that the second wave won’t be even worse, as was the case in 1918.
....
Why is it you guys always have to employ the tactics of the Left in order to try and convince people that COVID-19 is more deadly than the flu? Seriously, do you guys hear yourselves? It’s like listening to the Left up the ante about the utter destruction coming from Globull Warming! Just like them, all you can provide is conjecture and fear!
He posted actual numbers with links.
You told him to be “ashamed” and that his post was stupid.
Dividing dead-so-far by sick-so-far, during the beginning of the infection curve is like having a crowd jump off a 40’ bridge and counting the injured after 1 second. Most haven’t even hit the ground yet. The figures being released show that for those that are sick, just over half are still sick.
The way to get around having to wait until the entire epidemic runs out is to do cohort studies, which neither link includes.
Further, compare the number with the flu Dec 31 of last year to how it has spread since from a much larger and more dispersed base, with no real effort made to contain it geographically (though to be fair also include the effects of a significantly vaccinated populace). Now compare that to the COVID-19 with the same starting conditions. (Flu season usually starts in late September, then often peaks sometime from December to March).
The post was silly.
At this point in time, there are more still sick with the coronavirus than recovered. Outside of China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Iran, the current ratio is 1 dead per 4 recovered. That’ll go down with time...but it isn’t 2%.
The thing is this may very well come in several waves over the next year or two, and there’s no guarantee that the second wave won’t be even worse, as was the case in 1918.
Another is, “how ‘well’ is someone who has recovered?” There are reports of lung scarring in those who had severe cases (the 20%). Not all, but some. Lung scarring isn’t good.
They will NOT deal with the actual numbers in a meaningful way!
The proper equation is the number of dead, divided by the number of infected who have recovered. Early in the cycle that number is indeed higher than the final number because it generally takes longer to recover than to die - but it is at least intermediate to the final number rather than being irrelevant.
Dividing dead by infected during the spread of the disease isn’t meaningful.
As example, using that method:
If you were to replace “Coronavirus” with “Ricin”, and inject 100 people with a dose which would kill 100% in a week, then every day double the number of people you give the injection, after one week you would have a fatality/injection ratio of 0.8% (100/12,700), for a 100% fatal toxin.
Which, depending on his/her age, is a 98%+ probability.
You perfectly exemplify the irrational panic over this.
It’s been here for two weeks.
No one believes the numbers in China.
There is not enough information from Western Countries to make many assumptions.
But yeah...it’s the flu. I can tell because they are doing what the CDC does every year for the flu. And Trump addresses the nation every day about the flu.
So, yup. It’s the same thing.
At yesterdays press conference, they said that that was not the case.
Humans generally haven’t a good feel for applying an exponential curve to a small sample gathered over a short time period. We will have increasingly more accurate information as time progresses. The results of prior ignorance of incubation period, poor testing methodology, symptom free travelers, and the start date of patient zero transmission.
Up to the point that available resources can cope with a patient load, a low mortality rate is a possibility. Once the saturation point of medical care is crossed, the percentage of deaths could be greatly increased.
If its a nothingburger then why do we need to lock down people in their homes?
Why do we need travel restrictions?
According to you we should all step up and take the risk of death upon ourselves to satisfy your need to maintain your stock investments.
If you claim to be smart enough to make good investments then can you not see what is happening all over the world. Do you not read anything. Can you not research anything for yourself? Why do you believe everything some uneducated overpaid news reader tells you.
Which, depending on his/her age, is a 98%+ probability.
The actual numbers even outside of China (with Hong Kong and Singapore) and Iran show much different figures than you seem to think were derived.
Catching coronavirus, and not spontaneously exploding, does not mean that you’ve survived the disease.
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