Our hero
Posted on 03/01/2020 4:34:51 AM PST by Bon mots
after this, you’ll welcome obstacles
“The general principle of antifragility, it is much better to do things you cannot explain than explain things you cannot do.” – Nassim Taleb
“Being an entrepreneur is an existential, not just a financial thing.” – Nassim Taleb
“They have turned the wolf into a dog and man himself into the man’s best domesticated animal.” – Friedrich Nietzsche
The ideas in this post have been the most transformative in my life over the last couple years. I avoided writing about them because I didn’t feel I could. Finally, I feel that I’ve internalized, tested, and understand them deeply enough to communicate them with you.
This is a long post, but it could change your life and outlook in massive ways. I can say that without arrogance because these ideas aren’t my own, they’re Taleb’s.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb warned the world about the 2008 financial crisis before it happened. He didn’t predict it, per say, he just evaluated the financial system and saw how fragile it was.
The world is slowly beginning to admit how terrible we are at predicting the future. Stumbling on Happiness showed us that we can’t even predict what will make us happy in the future.
“Your mistake was not in imagining things you could not know—that is, after all, what imagination is for. Rather, your mistake was in unthinkingly treating what you imagined as though it were an accurate representation of the facts.” ― Daniel Gilbert, Stumbling on Happiness
I am going to do my best to share a new lens of the world with you and convince how powerful it can be in your life. This isn’t about wishful thinking or small self-help lifehacks. This is about looking at reality as the mess it is and learning to benefit from the chaos.
I’m not going to attempt to summarize Taleb’s books, it would be blasphemy. Almost all business books I read I feel fine sharing a summary, synthesis, and some quotes. That’s all they deserve. Taleb’s work is different. Reading his work, especially Incerto (containing The Bed of Procrustes, Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and Antifragile) is an experience. This post will provide a powerful perspective shift and tools that you can begin using immediately. It will not replace the books in any way.
I’ve written skimmable articles before, this is not one of them. This stuff is too important to skim. I hope you take the time to read the whole thing. If you can’t read it now then skim it and bookmark it for later.
Here is an overview of what we’re going to be getting into:
Our goal is presented by Taleb in the Prologue of Antifragile:
I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.
We think we need to know what’s going to happen to be ready for it. We think we need to have a perfectly clear vision of what we want our future to be if we want to avoid being homeless. We believe experts when they bullshit us and themselves with comforting predictions that are ultimately worse than useless – they convince us that we can know the unknowable.
It took me a long time to accept that I can’t know what’s going to happen in life. It can be paralyzing to realize that what you’re doing might not work, that the economy is changing so fast you won’t be able to keep up, and that, no matter how well things are going, the shit will inevitably hit the fan.
Taleb opens Antifragile with the following:
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be the fire and wish for the wind. …
The mission is how to domesticate, even dominate, even conquer, the unseen, the opaque, and the inexplicable.
How?
Let’s find out.
Our hero
[Note 1: All quotes without a name attached are Taleb.]
[Note 2: There are some complex ideas here, if you don’t understand something then keep reading – the next paragraph may explain it.]→ → → MORE >>>
I put the quotes there for a reason ... I can’t help it if people ignore them ...
You could have made over 40% in a day had you speculated on the VIX on Feb. 27!
1) Hindsight is better than fore site by a damn site.
2) Thank you for correctly using the word speculate.
3) When I used to ask farmers what their average yield was, they would always tell me the best year. So what is the average return on this speculation?
I have done it and the average was not good............
We’re about there. I figure we have abt 3-4 weeks of food.
Not sure on the medicines yet. Working on that.
Thanks for posting this. Taleb should be required reading for every Freeper.
That’s why I posted it.
Although it may not seem like it, I also appreciate the post. It made me think, although my perspective is longer term.
As a serial entrepreneur, I argue that to withstand the learning process, one must be tough, ie antifragile
Like transgender, antifragile is a perversion of the language
For prescription stuff do this. Every time you get a refill take out 2 days worth and stash it. We’ve been doing that for a couple of years. We have about 45 days worth of our maintenance meds.
Best,
L
Fair enough. Taleb has another concept that he writes about: “skin-in-the-game.”
Here’s a vanity on this subject:
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3794069/posts
Cheers.
Fair enough. Taleb has another concept that he writes about: “skin-in-the-game.”
Here’s a vanity on this subject:
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3794069/posts
Cheers.
Roger. I do have a few extras that I took out and haven’t used. Guess I was following your advice w/o knowing it!
FReegards, ‘Pod
No, you need both.
How are you going to barter?
Bookmark
What anti Fra-gee-lei might look like.
I have to admit I made a killing when it went from $800 to $1600.
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