Posted on 02/27/2020 6:15:35 AM PST by Moonman62
Researchers from China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention today describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3% and suggest most cases are mild, but the disease hits the elderly the hardest.
The study, published in JAMA, is the largest patient-based study on the novel coronavirus, which was first connected to seafood market in Wuhan, China, in December, and has since traversed the globe.
Death rate in critically ill: 49% or higher
A total of 72,314 COVID-19 cases, diagnosed through Feb 11 were used for the study. Of the 72,314 cases, 44,672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive throat swab samples), 16,186 as suspected cases (diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only), 10,567 as clinically diagnosed cases (from Hubei province only, diagnoses based on symptoms, including lung x-ray), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (diagnosis by positive test result but lacking typical symptoms).
"Most cases were diagnosed in Hubei Province (75%) and most reported Wuhan-related exposures (86%; ie, Wuhan resident or visitor or close contact with Wuhan resident or visitor," the authors said.
Eighty-seven percent of patients were aged 30 to 79 years (38,680 cases). This age-group was the most affected by a wide margin, followed by ages 20 to 29 (3,619 cases, or 8%), those 80 and older (1,408 cases, or 3%), and 1% each in ages less than 10 and 10 to 19 years.
Of the confirmed cases, 1,023 patients—all in critical condition—died from the virus, which results in a CFR of 2.3%. The CFR jumped considerably among older patients, to 14.8% in patients 80 and older, and 8.0% in patients ages 70 to 79. Among the critically ill, the CFR was 49.0%.
A smaller study today based on 52 critically ill patients at a Wuhan hospital confirms this finding. Thirty-two of the 52 critically ill patients (61.5%) died, and older age and acute respiratory distress syndrome were correlated with mortality.
The authors of the smaller study also found that 30 (81%) of 37 patients requiring mechanical ventilation had died by 28 days.
Less deadly but more transmissible than SARS, MERS
A total of 81% of cases in the JAMA study were classified as mild, meaning they did not result in pneumonia or resulted in only mild pneumonia. Fourteen percent of cases were severe (marked by difficulty breathing), and 5% were critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure).
In comparison to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) coronaviruses, which were both identified in the past 20 years, COVID-19 is likely more highly transmissible but not as deadly, the researchers noted. (SARS had a CFR of 9.6%; MERS has a CFR of 34.4%.) And unlike SARS and MERS, hospital-based outbreaks do not seem to be hallmark of COVID-19 at this time.
"Most secondary transmission of SARS and MERS occurred in the hospital setting," the authors wrote. "Transmission of COVID-19 is occurring in this context as well—3019 cases have been observed among health workers as of February 11, 2020 (of whom there have been 1716 confirmed cases and 5 deaths). However, this is not a major means of COVID-19 spread. Rather, it appears that considerable transmission is occurring among close contacts."
Cruise ship study suggests R0 of 2.28
In other research news, a study in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases uses data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship to calculate COVID-19's reproductive number (R0, or R-naught), or the number of people a single infected person is likely to infect.
Among the 355 passengers who contracted the virus, the researchers calculated an R0 of 2.28, similar to other R0 modeling published in the past several weeks.
Also today, two groups announced major developments in COVID-19 vaccine developments. China's Clover Biopharmaceuticals will partner with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) on Clover's protein-based coronavirus vaccine candidate, COVID-19 S-Trimer, according to a GSK news release. And the University of Queensland in Australia announced a vaccine candidate is ready for a proof-of-concept study after just 3 weeks in development.
I sure hope so. I’ve been waiting for this for years. Now I finally get to tell everyone “I told you so.”
Or not.
This is the painful bandaid off quickly approach that will take some skin with it.
I personally would have preferred what Trump was working on which was the bandaid off slowly approach.
The hyterical crowd will blame bad date on a death rate of 1% - 2% but will fully embrace the same bad data if it suggests a death rate higher than that.
Apparently for many people who contract it it is no worse than the common cold, though obviously it kills others.
And whether serious or not Trump’s enemies are of course trying to play it up and rooting for it to be severe enough to bring him down. Sick.
Re: Spanish Flu morbidity rate of 8% to 20%
In the USA, morbidity was 2.5%.
The USA infection rate was 30%, which was the world average.
From memory, about 30 million Americans were infected, and about 750,000 died.
Please. You're asserting that as a statement of fact.
Unbelievable.
“China’s numbers are cooked.”
They’re more than just cooked; they’re vaporized.
The Chicomms brought-in 40 new, large incinerators to handle all the disposal of corpses, though they deny it.
I’ll trust the south Korean and Japanese numbers when those come out. That should give us sn accurate read on mortality and healthcare means in a modern society
You're asserting this as a fact. Source?
I can say for sure that the Chinese government doesn’t care about the virus much anymore. Have multiple contacts and they say the in interstate travel restrictions lifted.
Yeah. They are just sending people back to work and hoping they don’t die. Communism.
This happened under Woodrow Wilson's presidency, not even Franklin D. Roosevelt controlled the press and the release of information as tightly. Any statistics from that time period should be highly suspect. Even so you make a valid point.
So?
I read the article.
You wrote:
“Japan covering up their cases bigly.”
meaning that they are intentionally covering up cases.
Nothing in the article even suggests that.
“I read on here just a few days ago that is was no worse than a common cold and the people saying it was serious are provocateurs trying to hurt Trump.”
I read the same thing!
Run the math then.
Show me why your numbers (of which you apparently have none) are more believable.
Lacking further details about distribution, and having no reason to believe it will be adequately contained, I have to assume it will spread like flu without vaccine: basically everyone gets it at least once. Of note: some seem inclined to spread it, like the “death cult” in Korea, I’ve seen a “if I’m infected I’m going to DC to spread it, who’s with me?” tweet, etc.
Known cases have resolved to >8% fatality rate. I have no reason to believe this will improve. Many have reason to believe it’s much worse, China stating “all under control!” while welding apartment doors shut and grabbing people off streets & throwing into boxes and opening Hotel California quarantine centers and ... .
I’ve run the numbers above. The more I look at it, 1 in 25 seems ... low.
Prove me wrong.
Please.
They are testing 900 a day compared to 15k a day by South Korea. Call it slow walking or what you want. They are not giving real numbers. Guilty by omission.
They are testing 900 a day compared to 15k a day by South Korea. Call it slow walking or what you want. They are not giving real numbers. Guilty by omission.
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