Positive Development: Coronavirus Recoveries Have Overtaken New Cases

Statista via MSN ^ | 02/25/2020

[SeekAndFind]

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO's director general, played down fears of a global COVID-19 pandemic despite the emergence of new outbreaks of the virus in South Korea, Italy and Iran. He said that "using the word pandemic now does not fit the facts, but it may certainly cause fear", though he added that "the sudden increase in new cases is certainly very concerning". South Korea has now confirmed 977 cases, Italy has recorded 283 and Iran has reported 95. Despite the WHO's statement, many experts believe a pandemic is inevitable and that it's only a matter of time until they start using that term.

There have been some positive developments regarding containment of the disease, however, with the number of recoveries surpassing the total number of daily new infections for the first time. That occurred on February 19th, according to Johns Hopkins University tracking, when there were 439 new cases and approximately 1,800 recoveries.

The trend has continued since then with fewer than 600 new confirmed COVID-19 cases each day and an even greater number of recoveries. The slowdown of the outbreak has occurred mainly in China where control measures such as quarantines, self-isolation and movement restrictions are finally having an impact.

Despite that positive development, the spike in cases in other countries suggests that the world is still approaching a tipping point in its attempts to limit the outbreak. There are now more than 2,000 cases of the coronavirus in over 30 countries outside China and while the WHO has said that it's too early to describe its spread as a pandemic, it did warn governments to be "in a case of preparedness". The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the U.S. is already preparing for a pandemic by coordinating with hospitals, pharmacies, supply chain partners

[LouieFisk]

“Has anyone read if there have been any re-infections of COVID-19”
—
I don’t think I’ve seen anything definitive on that. It’s still pretty new so there’s a lot that’s unknown. But I suppose if there were reinfection it would take a little while to happen yet to most, if it does happen.

[1Old Pro]

So the world was going to end, and then it didn’t?

[proust]

How specifically am I stoking “hysteria”?

[Grampa Dave]

I’m 81 and my wife in her own words is hurtling towards 80 faster than a speeding Jaguar, (her dream car).

We have reordered our Rxes with a 90 day supply, and they will be delivered by Friday. We have a good supply of the OTC’s our doctors want us to take like a baby aspirin, calcium tabs with vitamin D.

I have posted here and sent out by email our buy and keep on hand non perishables to our family members. Living in Californicator land with flood, earthquakes,fires and rioting, the supplies and electrical power can be gone in a flash. So nothing is different there. We have both go bags and stay closets updated/resupplied the first of every month.

[TomGuy]

I was just noticing the ‘recovery’ numbers at the BNO tracking website. They are encouraging outside of Mainland China.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

[McGavin999]

I think this is just a serious case of the flu. Older and vulnerable people will need more care but people with healthy immune systems will recover in the same amount of time it takes to get over a case of flu.

I think the contagion factor is the biggest worry and if people will stay home when they are sick this could go away as spring arrives.

[LouieFisk]

“I was just noticing the ‘recovery’ numbers at the BNO tracking website. They are encouraging outside of Mainland China.”
—
Same numbers, I believe, but the format might be a bit easier for some -
https://kungflu.net

[dp0622]

ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!

I CANT BELIEVE the sheer volume of snowflakes that came out on this board during this outbreak!!

I chalk it up to the average age being a little on the older side and fears of this knocking off the elderly.

And too much spare time :)

Which I DEFINITELY have :)

But I just NEVER saw the numbers indicating this thing was gonna take out 9/10 of the free world :)

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

Contagious pulmonary diseases travel in waves. All this likely indicates is a trough between the waves.

[I want the USA back]

New cases and recoveries are out of sync. One has to be a new case first, before one can be a recovery. Then there is a period of time in which the person has the disease, and then recovers. From the chart, that period of time seems to be 2-3 days. On Feb 22, that period seems to be zero days.
That cannot be true.

Comparing the number of new cases on a given day, to the number of recoveries ON THAT SAME DAY is unreasonable.

A better metric would be total number of cases to date, compared to total recoveries to date. Accounting for the 15,100 new cases it looks like the new cases are way larger than recoveries, thus the headline is wrong.

[poinq]

This is so wrong. Firstly, the stats have nothing to do with each other. Recoveries were always going to overtake new cases sooner rather than later. But it does not have anything to do with new cases going down. Its not a good thing. Its not a bad thing. Its just the result of the pile of infected growing.

But that logic still presumes that the number of new cases is accurate. Its obviously low. In fact the number of recoveries is low as well. The important thing to watch is the spread. Italy Algiers and Iran are very worrisome. That is spread. Australia and the USA are very hopeful. Their cases are falling. And no new cases are showing up. The US only has new cases because they are rescuing US citizens from China and Cruise ships. But the cases in Australia and the US are not spreading. Thank the military and government from both countries.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

Best wishes to you both!

[lepton]

That 15,100 cases in a day rather invalidates the conclusion for the entire graph.

[proust]

...but yesterday was a good day according to China!

[Grampa Dave]

BOL! One of our sons attended a Cal State school for engineers in the 1970s. He and his room mate had a money making table in the front yard of their apartment every friday. A great taco truck showed up at about 4:30 pm every friday. They had incredible tacos and no beer due to city ordinances.

So our son and his roommate had Mexican Beer and chips available for a donation if the donors were 21 or over.

A friendly cop suggested that they have Pacifico Clara Mexican Lager Beer instead of Corona.

Their beer donation $’s tripled.

Now in their 50’s, Pacifico Clara Mexican Lager Beer and tacos from a great Taco truck are still their beer of choice and Friday meal. They live about 60 miles apart and every friday they exchange family photos of their great fiestas.

Pacifico Clara Mexican Lager Beer is often the beer of choice of sophisticated gringos.

[Grampa Dave]

Same to you FRiend!

[TomGuy]

Some perspective: I saw one article that said China has an annual death rate of 9 million from all causes.

[lepton]

They can’t spread it

---

There are reports out that the Chinese are extending quarantine for the “recovered” because they can spread it. It’s China, so who knows what is actually happening, but as for now, the conclusion is uncertain.

[MeganC]

If you stop testing for new cases then you don’t have to report them.

[null and void]

Good news, with the caveat that China is doing the vast majority of not reporting.

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.