Posted on 02/24/2020 5:36:50 AM PST by yesthatjallen
#2: Dilute Bernie as much as possible and force a brokered convention? They would be smarter to get behind Bernie and "go for it". That is what I expect will happen after Super Tuesday.
It’s funny that Jo(k)e assumes those two candidates’ voters will switch to Biden (Plugs), Bloomplug or Buttplug. Who’s to say they won’t get on the Bernie train?
Says it all for the elitists doesn't it?
This would tend to bely your posted graphic...
South Carolina Democratic Primary Betting Odds
•Bernie Sanders: -175, 53.5% implied probability
•Joe Biden: +125, 37.4% implied probability
•Tom Steyer: +2200, 3.6% implied probability
•Pete Buttigieg: +3300, 2.4% implied probability
•Elizabeth Warren: +5000, 1.7% implied probability
•Amy Klobuchar: +6000, 1.3% implied probability
90% of Warren’s supporters will go to Sanders.
That is my read as well—I expect SC to be close, but if I had to bet I would on Bernie squeaking by Biden.
Momentum is _very_ important for low information primary voters.
I also agree with the comments here that the Democratic primary voter is _very_ left wing. They are the activists and fanatics from one of the rabid “rights” groups—they turn out for primaries and non-Presidential year elections.
General election voters in an election year tend to be less ideological as a whole, and that is why turnout is so critical in a presidential election.
Neither Warren or Klobuchar have a path to the nomination and their money is going to dry up very rapidly, They’ll be gone by mid-March.
In my opinion the entire Iowa fiasco happened because Democrats were manipulating the votes to ensure Bernie wouldn't win.
The failure of the app brought unwelcome scrutiny to the process. For three weeks now they've been trying to find a way to reconcile the real numbers with the manipulated numbers.
They got caught cheating and they're still trying to cover their tracks.
New Hampshire and Nevada intensified the scrutiny of the process and with everyone watching they couldn't even attempt to manipulate the count.
Iowa proved Democrats are manipulating the numbers and now that they were caught they can't risk being caught again.
The Democratic leadership has lost their power to control the outcome and they're in full panic mode.
As opposed to the polls in 2016? Makes no sense to dismiss the overall better track record of the betting markets while simultaneously citing frickin’ RCP and its polls.
Special Memo from MplsSteve to Amy and Liz:
Please stay in this race. Don’t look at the polls! America wants you and needs you in this race as long as possible. You must get your message out at all costs! You are the vanguard of breaking the glass walls (or ceilings or whatever the hell they are) of sexism and misogynism that exists in this country.
Keep raising lots and lots of money! Keep fighting the good fight!
I’ve got new for you brother, the betting markets were just as clueless on the 2016 election as were the polls...
PredictIt, an online trading platform jointly run by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, and Washington, D.C.-based political consulting firm Aristotle International Inc:
Clinton - 81 percent
Trump - 20 percent
Iowa Electronic Markets, winner-takes-all trading market:
Clinton - 71 percent
Trump - 28 percent
UK-based Betfair, internet betting exchange:
Clinton - 83 percent
Trump - 18 percent
UK-based Ladbrokes, online betting platform:
Clinton - 83 percent
Trump - 22 percent
Ireland’s Paddy Power, bookmaker:
Clinton - 83 percent
Trump - 18 percent
Probabilities were as of roughly 6:30 p.m. EST (2330 GMT) on Sunday.
Here is mourning joe, whose audience ratings have averaged less than 390 K for the past 15 years, telling people with bad numbers to get out.
If he took his own advice, he would have been off the air back in 2009, way before he married his current ho.
People quote crap from mourning joe, but other than a couple of hundred-thousand DC and NY people, who else watches it?
Well, this can't be right. Amy has said that together these two have never lost an election.
Don’t count Amy out just yet. She’s as sharp as a tack. She actually nailed the fact that Mexico’s president was elected in the last few years.
They've lost four primaries and caucuses so far.
You are correct, as I was eye balling the rates over the final weekend.
The betting line only indicates how a fool and his money are soon parted.
I used to be a heavy bettor, once had $55K on a single monday night game {to be honest, I had won 50 large over the weekend, and got greedy}. I lost.
The betting lines don't mean a thing, only that like minds are looking for reassurance anywhere they can find it.
Bernie is going to crush Biden in SC.
L
Klobuchar dropping out won’t hardly do a thing for or against anyone: she drew only 4.2% of the votes in nevada ... even Steyer beat Klobuchar there ... interesting that the fake stream media doesn’t call for billionaire Steyer to drop out ...
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