As opposed to the polls in 2016? Makes no sense to dismiss the overall better track record of the betting markets while simultaneously citing frickin’ RCP and its polls.
I’ve got new for you brother, the betting markets were just as clueless on the 2016 election as were the polls...
PredictIt, an online trading platform jointly run by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, and Washington, D.C.-based political consulting firm Aristotle International Inc:
Clinton - 81 percent
Trump - 20 percent
Iowa Electronic Markets, winner-takes-all trading market:
Clinton - 71 percent
Trump - 28 percent
UK-based Betfair, internet betting exchange:
Clinton - 83 percent
Trump - 18 percent
UK-based Ladbrokes, online betting platform:
Clinton - 83 percent
Trump - 22 percent
Ireland’s Paddy Power, bookmaker:
Clinton - 83 percent
Trump - 18 percent
Probabilities were as of roughly 6:30 p.m. EST (2330 GMT) on Sunday.