When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?

Nature ^ | 2/18/20 | David Cyranoski

[LibWhacker]

Officials want to know but predictions vary wildly, from now to after hundreds of millions of people are infected.

Coronavirus infections in China continue to swell by thousands a day, prompting epidemiologists to estimate when the outbreak will peak. Some suggest the climax, when the number of new infections in a single day reaches its highest point, will happen any time now. Others say that it is months away and that the virus will infect millions — or in one estimate hundreds of millions — of people first.

Public health officials want to know roughly when the peak will be — and how many will be infected — so that they can prepare hospitals and know when it will be safe to lift travel restrictions. Wuhan, the city at the centre of the epidemic, and several other nearby cities have been on lockdown since late January.

Although peak predictions can be illuminating, some researchers warn that accuracy is difficult to achieve, especially when the data used in models are incomplete. “If you revise your predictions every week to say that the outbreak will peak in a week or two, eventually you will be correct,” says Brian Labus, who works on disease surveillance at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

[Vermont Lt]

This is not the flu. It’s not even closel to the normal seasonal flu.

[Vermont Lt]

This is not the flu. Has China ever shut down 750 million people because of the flu?

[arthurus]

Air pollution and the habits of Chinese to spit incessantly and to never cover a cough of sneeze complicates the control of an airborne pathogen tremendously.

[oldasrocks]

Quick, everyone strip and lay out in the sunshine.

[Jamestown1630]

I guess you’ll be fine.

[RoseofTexas]

After the 2020 election!

[ctdonath2]

China has reported ~2,000 dead and has completely freaked out.

[heshtesh]

Do you believe it’s only 2000? I sure as hell don’t.

[Norseman]

My thinking on it as of today (for what that’s worth):

The experience in Wuhan has given the Chinese leadership a reasonably good idea of the progression of the infection, including the percentage of deaths it will cause (probably between one and two percent of those infected, I’m guessing it will turn out to be.)

And it kills older, mostly retired, people, a few middle-aged, and hardly any young people. From China’s perspective, this is okay news.

So, 2% of those infected die, and they’re mostly elderly. Knowing that, China has just tightened back up the reporting of confirmed cases by requiring the formal test be positive to declare a case confirmed. CT scans are no longer sufficient.

Now cut out the testing and get back to work. This is already being done in most provinces. Yes, the infection will spread rapidly in all provinces now, but not everyone will be infected and of those who are, only 2% or so will die and most of them won’t be workers. Due to the absence of testing, confirmed cases will be minimal.

Now let’s just hope it doesn’t mutate into something more virulent.

[R_Kangel]

"... China has reported ~2,000 dead and has completely freaked out ...

.... They have probably Neutralized/Extirpated 10 - 20 times that in an attempt to keep it from spreading .....

[Steve Van Doorn]

The primary victims of this virus will be those that took the SARS vaccine which was a major backfire.
Which BTW the CDC tried to distribute in the US which was stopped by the National Institutes of Health. Hundreds of millions where vaccinated in China with this major blunder of a Vaccine.

2005 SARS vaccine suggested by the CDC to distribute
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/11/8/04-1003_article
2007 report. SARS vaccine change the persons lungs making them far more at risk from new strains of the virus (CoronaVirus)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17194199

2012 report with more details on how the SARS vaccine makes the person at far more risk of new strains of the virus
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3335060/

[blam]

"Quick, everyone strip and lay out in the sunshine."

The Antibiotic Vitamin

[bgill]

21 days after the world shuts down travel.

[DoughtyOne]

Convid-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data

File XLSX

File XLS

[VanShuyten]

If we had accurate numbers from the Chicoms, it would be pretty easy to draw an “S” curve and determine peak infections.

[dangus]

It already peaked. Feb 1. Now, not only are there fewer new cases, there are fewer active cases.

[BobL]

I think it comes in waves, you think it’s dying off, and then it comes back 10 times stronger. Just a theory, but it could explain why China thought they could ‘handle’ the virus in Wuhan without extreme measures. I figure Wuhan is in its 4th wave. Now the second wave is hitting other cities in China and just beginning in South Korea.

[ThanhPhero]

It is a virus. Sunshine vitamin D is an anti viral as is L-Lysine. Add Vitamins C and K as general immune system strengtheners. I think I would rely on those “medicines” before accepting any hastily produced Vaccination.

[ThanhPhero]

It is a virus. Sunshine vitamin D is an anti viral as is L-Lysine. Add Vitamins C and K as general immune system strengtheners. I think I would rely on those “medicines” before accepting any hastily produced Vaccination.

[Vermont Lt]

I started doubling down on D3 and C when this started. I swear...after three weeks its like someone turned on a light. I feel great. Cannot wait until the sun is a little warmer...I get can outside.