Posted on 02/15/2020 11:27:17 AM PST by catnipman
Proportional allocation, the sheer number of candidates, their financial resources, the compactness of the primary schedule, and Bloomberg’s specter all raise the probability of a contested convention to a level underestimated by the national media.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
It’s been Hillary’s plan since the day after she lost.
Everyone knows this is Bernie’s last rodeo, so if they screw him out of the nomination (as they surely will), I really hope he goes 3rd party. Splitting the vote would probably put the Democrat party in a 3rd place finish - how can they be a national party if that happens?
The biggest reason why the convention may end up being brokered is because that’s what the party elite really want anyway. They want to choose the candidate in the back rooms.
Those of you in the open primary states that vote after Super Tuesday— be sure to plan your Operation Chaos II strategy to ensure maximum confusion and angst.
I agree with those who maintain that the Demoncrats developed the proportional delegate allocation system to make it impossible for any one candidate to win outright.
But let’s do our part to force them to make three different candidates and their supporters unhappy.
I think Sanders and Bloomberg are going to lead in the polls of most states after Super Tuesday. I say vote for whichever candidate is third in the polls in your state—unless your state is one of the last to hold a primary.
In this case, vote for Sanders if he has begun to fall behind in delegates against Bloomberg. If he and Bloomberg are comfortably 1 and 2, respectably, in delegate count and a third candidate is still hanging in there, vote for that third candidate.
Smokey back rooms. Just not tobacco smoke. :-)
Any time there’s more than 3 candidates come mid February people start talking about a brokered convention. Wish they were right, that would actually be interesting. Hasn’t been an interesting convention in my life time.
How funny. Theoretically, the Democrats want delegates chosen in free and fair elections, and that those delegates will nominate a candidate in a transparent manner.
And I think we all know, if there’s no nominee with a majority of delegates heading into the convention, a decision will be made in smoke filled rooms, and a candidate will be forced on the party by the powers that be.
Wasn’t the last convention to go past a 1st ballot, back in 1952?
As I recall, in 1976, Jimmy Carter had a strong plurality but not a majority, after the primary season but before the convention. But enough various uncommitted delegates or those pledged to minor candidates, decided to support Carter, so that there was no doubt he would be the nominee on the first ballot.
It would be strange, wouldn’t it, if the party which theoretically eschews party bosses and big wigs running things, may be in the position of picking the nominee in a smoke filled room.
LOL. I think nowadays, that marijuana smoke would be ok, it’s just tobacco smoke which is verboten.
“The biggest reason why the convention may end up being brokered is because that’s what the party elite really want anyway. They want to choose the candidate in the back rooms.”
indeed ... i’ve wondered about that myself ... whether it was deliberate, because anyone thinking about it for more than a minute must realize that such a split was almost inevitable to occur ...
If Bernie is not the nominee, Milwaukee will burn this summer.
If their convention was in Los Angeles, everyone but Bernie and his army would be hung by the neck until dead.
But not worry, Bernie will drop dead on the campaign trail, likely before the convention.
“Just not tobacco smoke”
well, maybe wacky tobaccy ....
Looks like a brokered convention ahead to me......these candidates left have a lust for power they’re not going to easily set aside......perhaps Bloomsberg will offer them a deal they can’t refuse?
Beernie supporters won’t be accepting anything apart from a Bernie win regardless of how this plays out. But I don’t think Bernie ses it that way......he’s still ‘for sale’ in this election as he was before.
The Democrats have been here before. The 1924 Democratic National Convention, held from June 24 to July 9, 1924, was the longest continuously running convention in United States political history. It took a record 103 ballots to nominate a presidential candidate. The early contenders, William Gibbs McAdoo (with heavy support by the KKK) and Al Smith (strongly resisted by the KKK), neither of whom could gain enough convention supporters to come to a decisive lead, were put aside for the nomination of John W. Davis of West Virginia for President and Charles W. Bryan of Nebraska for Vice President, as the compromise. They went on to be defeated by the Republican ticket of President Calvin Coolidge and Charles G. Dawes in the 1924 presidential election.
Good articles on election topics are rare—this one is a keeper—thanks for posting.
Proportional delegates in primary states is a mega-disaster—as Bernie is about to find out up close and personal.
It is also a disaster for any party that does it—there is no good scenario where primaries are a waste of time and money.
If the political bosses are going to pick the nominee then they shouldn’t pretend the voters have a say—it will just irritate everyone who worked on the campaigns and voted for the candidates.
Add in the toxic element that Democrats are violent and emotional...
Should be great training for the Wisconsin National Guard..
Some lessons just need to be learned the hard way!
You need 3 viable candidates to go all the way to the convention, none pulling away, and no other viable candidates by Super Tuesday. Biden v Bloomberg v Sanders could do it. Buttigieg lasting too long could likely putz it up. Having proportional delegates makes it easier, because winner-take-all states make it very easy to keep 3 viable candidates. Refusing delegates to candidates who get less than 15% also makes it easier, because it makes it less likely 4th- and 5th-place finishers will rack up delegates who they can then release and who therefore can go towards a frontrunner.
“I really hope he (Bernie) goes 3rd party”
Is there a serious incident in his future????
It looks like Biden and Warren aren't going to be in it much longer. Maybe there will be a reversal, but I suspect they'll have to drop out before the end. Can Buttigieg and Klobuchar really last and pick up enough delegates?
Drudge headline: Bloomberg Considers Hillary for Running Mate. Of course. That way, he picks up votes from the other non-Bernie candidates and takes the nomination. Bernie voters will be mad, but won't be able to stop Bloomie.
Any candidate who can pick up fifty or so delegates by Super Tuesday has every reason to stick it out—perhaps to become king-maker and demand a VP slot, cabinet post or whatever.
Even if they can’t raise enough money to actively campaign in any remaining larger states with primaries, they could still try to scrape up a few more caucus delegates here or there.
Biden and Warren both have egos the size of Mt. Everest, and it is very easy to imagine them sticking it out until the end.
Butt-man and Klobo are more likely to drop out after Super Tuesday imho (if they are fourth or fifth in delegates at that point). If either is third (or higher) in delegates at that point, they might as well stay in until the end.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.