Posted on 02/04/2020 8:12:18 AM PST by familyop
DW: Do you trust the official numbers of infections and deaths?
Jiesi Luo*: I think there are many more infections and deaths from coronavirus than have been officially reported. When preliminary tests determine that a patient has a lung sickness, the nucleic acid test (NAT), which detects viruses, cannot always be carried out because the waiting list is too long. The patient is therefore not diagnosed.
Furthermore, if someone dies from the lung sickness, and has not taken the NAT test, the fatality is not statistically registered as having been caused by the coronavirus...
*Jiesi Luo (pseudonym) is a medical technician at a hospital in Wuhan. He declined to give his name due to security concerns.
(Excerpt) Read more at dw.com ...
It’s probably true. The question is one of magnitude.
Even the BPONews site on the coronavirus lists a tally of suspected cases along with the confirmed cases. As of this writing, they have confirmed of 20,706, and suspected of 23,214.
How much worse than that is it? Several times? Or 10 times?
I am probably screwing up in my explanation, but this event does seem like one of Taleb’s “Black Swans” and highlights a point of fragility caused by a totalitarian society. As the situation spins of control (more and more cases) it gets harder to diagnose the cases. Therefore the number of reported cases becomes deceptively few, while the problem itself gets worse. The “optics” are not that bad. But the situation is disastrous.
Probably true which, possibly, means that the overall mortality rate (based upon the outcome of hospitalizations) is lower than reported.
Not from a tabloid *ping.*
[I am probably screwing up in my explanation, but this event does seem like one of Taleb’s “Black Swans” and highlights a point of fragility caused by a totalitarian society. As the situation spins of control (more and more cases) it gets harder to diagnose the cases. Therefore the number of reported cases becomes deceptively few, while the problem itself gets worse. The “optics” are not that bad. But the situation is disastrous.]
“How much worse than that is it? Several times? Or 10 times?”
If they really are doing cremations at 3 times the normal rate, that would mean 600 dead per day due to the virus - about 10 times.
So far.
We will know the real count when people start dropping in other countries.
China had their first knowledge of the virus Dec 8th and the first person did nor die until Jan 11th.
Wait until the deaths start kicking in especially India, Philippines and Northern Africa an other poor countries with minimal health care.
How dumb does one have to be to accept Chicom numbers at face value?
When they say 500 deaths, they men 5000.
Is this a bio-weapons mishap, an escaped virus done by the Chinese military?
Is anyone asking the question?
It looks like it. Fast acting, designed to overwhelm an opposing army where they cannot manage the sick, and it is launched by aerosol.
Reminds me of Soviets and the anthrax debacle in Sverdlosk.
Killed thousands. Idiots.
Coronavirus Infections are Massively Underreported, Warns Hong Kong Academic
(CCN, Norway)
https://www.ccn.com/coronavirus-infections-are-massively-underreported-warns-hong-kong-academic/
Don’t assume it’s going to be any better here ...
The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus map shows as of 02/04 10:49 CT 427 dead, 727 recovered. So the question is what of the other 19K? Do they have accurate information related to the current condition of the remaining 19K? Are more recovered or have more died than what the current numbers show? Right now the total dead is around 2%, but that does not account for the vast majority of cases that seem to be unaccounted for at the moment. If the breakdown works out across the remaining cases to look like some 400 deceased / 700 recovered ratio, the number dead just for the known cases could rise to over 5000, but of course that is an oversimplification of how patients will progress in the coming days.
The number recovered seems to be rising somewhat faster than the number deceased and hopefully that trend continues.
The death rate was higher, until governments saw some online comments roughly 3 days ago about how the death rate was higher than the recovery rate. Voila. The recovery rate issued by the communists skyrocketed.
Maybe, but..
“Furthermore, if someone dies from the lung sickness, and has not taken the NAT test, the fatality is not statistically registered as having been caused by the coronavirus. “
It depends upon how many times they use this judgement call. I’m sure patients die with other lung issues, but without the NAT no diagnosis. Dead or alive.
Because we can’t trust them to tell the truth about the number of infected, but we CAN trust them to tell the truth about hospitalizations and mortality.
?
...and when you don’t have enough medical personnel to attend to the sick and try to stop the pandemic, why would you waste time administering a NAT test to a dead body?
It’s starting to look like Wuhan is approaching complete collapse. Not enough hospital beds. Not enough medical personnel. Not enough transportation to get the sick to the hospitals. Nobody working or allowed outside. Store shelves empty. Who is manning the water works and sewage plants?
This is might scary if an 11 million person metropolis can go to complete collapse in less than five weeks.
Of course, many here on FR and in the US have posited this for many years. The novel “One Second After” chronicled societal collapse after an EMP event. Wuhan seems to be somewhat playing out the scenario in One Second After.
If one night in Wuhan, the lights just go out, you will see some serious SHTF.
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