[ClearCase_guy]

I am probably screwing up in my explanation, but this event does seem like one of Taleb’s “Black Swans” and highlights a point of fragility caused by a totalitarian society. As the situation spins of control (more and more cases) it gets harder to diagnose the cases. Therefore the number of reported cases becomes deceptively few, while the problem itself gets worse. The “optics” are not that bad. But the situation is disastrous.

[Zhang Fei]

[I am probably screwing up in my explanation, but this event does seem like one of Taleb’s “Black Swans” and highlights a point of fragility caused by a totalitarian society. As the situation spins of control (more and more cases) it gets harder to diagnose the cases. Therefore the number of reported cases becomes deceptively few, while the problem itself gets worse. The “optics” are not that bad. But the situation is disastrous.]

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The recorded SARS fatalities were 800. 300 of those were in Hong Kong. In other words, Hong Kong, a First World region, had way more SARS fatalities than any single province in China. The bottom line, whether for SARS or the current coronavirus epidemic? Communist Party’s statistics are not to be believed. An order of magnitude larger would not be surprising.