Posted on 02/02/2020 8:44:49 PM PST by 11th_VA
The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.
The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents — may well have global consequences, despite the extraordinary travel restrictions and quarantines now imposed by China and other countries, including the United States.
Scientists do not yet know how lethal the new coronavirus is, however, so there is uncertainty about how much damage a pandemic might cause. But there is growing consensus that the pathogen is readily transmitted between humans.
The Wuhan coronavirus is spreading more like influenza, which is highly transmissible, than like its slow-moving viral cousins, SARS and MERS, scientists have found...
(Excerpt) Read more at google.com ...
The serious illness we saw with H1N1 was ARDS caused by the virus. We could treat bacterial pneumonia’s easily and still ended up with very sick people on ventilators. Antibiotics are likely not the answer here
So there's two ways to look at it. Using the snake analogy, the world's most deadly snake (kills the most people) is only fatal in 10% of the people it bites; but because it's so aggressive, it's the #1 killer.
I can’t remember If we had any deaths at my place. We did have several people with extended time on ventilators and very prolonged rehab afterward.
At one point we had someone on a vent in every ICU room we had except one. As I recall ICU rooms were short all over the city
What do you guys think? You honest thoughts on this. Is it going to spread and turn into a major crisis in the United States? If you think not I would want to know the reasons why. I’m hoping not, but worried.
Time to remember the Spanish flu. It wasn’t awfully long time ago. Wiped out as much as one in five in some countries.
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The Spanish flu:
a) had nothing to do with Spain
b) killed more people than all the guns, bombs, shells and gas of WWI
Because a core group of officials in the Chinese Government believe this virus escaped from a bioweapons laboratory in Wuhan and they are terrified of the potential consequences.
What if..... a virus was engineered to be highly communicable with a low mortality rate was released with the purpose of building up herd immunity against other, more lethal viruses? Asking for a friend.
I think I may have already had it.
Unbelievable congestion with overflowing phlegm for two solid months. No virus ever sticks with me for that long.
Yes and as I explained in my comment using actual data, influenza is 4x - 8x more deadly.
Three weeks ago there were under 70 cases. Making such a decision then would have been ridiculous. They did not have any idea what the R0 rate was until a week ago. Now it appears R0 is 2.5 among Asians but much lower among other races. You don’t cry fire in a crowded theater before you even smell smoke much less see flames.
I think hot toddies (and cold) may be how the Brits once overtly (now more covertly) came to rule the world.
They guessed wrong on the influenza mix last year for the immunizations. It’s always a best guess. . .
That’s a very sad story. Poor man.
It would get some in a family and not touch others.
Nobody knows. We'll know a BIT more in the next 10 days, based on what happens in China. I wouldn't worry, but I wouldn't be complacent either.
You are at a higher risk, if your are older and have any kind of compromised organs (COPD, Heart issues, etc).
Using the Spanish Flu as an analog, the Spanish Flu actually struck in four waves - the third wave was the most lethal, as it had morphed into a more deadly strain.
It could go away for a few months (Spanish Flu did this), then return; or go away and never return like SARS - that's one big unknown, we just don't know.
Using one other analogy, the Spanish Flu was like 'mass shooter'; the virus spread very quickly and killed withinh hours.
This virus is more like a sniper; there's a long latent period between transmissions, and it can take weeks before a patient dies, if you happen to be in a susceptible category.
Good Documentary on the Spansih Flu
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