China Coronavirus Could Trigger Pandemic: Harvard Epidemiologist

vision times ^ | 02/02/2020 | Staff

[winoneforthegipper]

Harvard epidemiologist and health economist, has warned that the Chinese coronavirus spreading fast throughout the world could turn out to be a major pandemic.

The academic quoted a study showing that the basic reproduction number of the infection (R0) is 3.8. By contrast, the seasonal flu attack in most years only has an R0 of 1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic had an R0 of 1.48 while the catastrophic 1918 Spanish flu that infected 500 million people worldwide had an R0 value of 1.80.

The viral infection “A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with… possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world with faster (travel) than 1918,” Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) said in a series of tweets.

Feigl-Ding also quoted a study by a scientist from the Imperial College of London in which the R0 value is shown to be 2.6, which, while lower than the other study, was still “extremely bad,” he said. In another series of tweets, Dr. Ding points out that the new coronavirus is an RNA type, meaning that the viruses have RNA as their genetic material rather than DNA. This basically allows the virus to have a high mutation rate, enabling it to change properties quickly.

[winoneforthegipper]

Some strong wording. Not sure the hype level here but food for thought.

[MuttTheHoople]

This could rival Legionnaires Disease.

[yldstrk]

I don’t believe Harvard about anything

[Fungi]

“Feigl-Ding “ and the one from Thailand: “Kriangsak Attipornwanich. “ How do they come up with these names? They sound comical, almost phony.

[AndyJackson]

Harvard epidemiologist and health economist, has warned that the Chinese coronavirus spreading fast throughout the world could turn out to be a major pandemic.

And only a tenured professor at Harvard could come up with that hypothesis /s/

[reasonisfaith]

The first mistake is admitting this comes from Harvard.

[Jane Long]

Isn’t Dr Eric Ding a $oros associate?

[null and void]

Welcome to the party, pal!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[grey_whiskers]

Old news, completely superseded by later events.

This came out even before the original CDC press conference last Tuesday.

Let alone before news of the use of anti-flu and anti-HIV drugs to clear a patient of the virus in 48 hours in Thailand.

[JPJones]

“Feigl-Ding “ and the one from Thailand: “Kriangsak Attipornwanich. “ How do they come up with these names? They sound comical, almost phony.”

I almost expect a quote from “Dr. Slartibartfast”

[EasySt]

"I almost expect a quote from “Dr. Slartibartfast”

He's expected to give out the fear porn awards, later.

[Black Agnes]

The heck they say!

Rilly?

[DoughtyOne]

In the last four days, 2019 nCoV cases outside of China have grown by these rates:

01/28 00.00% 087
01/29 20.69% 105
01/30 12.38% 118
01/31 29.66% 153
02/01 15.69% 177

That spike on the 31st may have been a reporting lag as much as anything else. The day before was quite low.

One person has died outside of China. That’s a 0.565% mortality rate.

As of last night, the mortality rate for all documented cases was running at 2.094%.

As of last night, the recovery rate for all documented cases was running at 2.324%.

The recovery number today has already jumped by 103 cases. That’s a 30.29% plus jump in recoveries since yesterday.

I have run the numbers, and obtained the data to work with over the last four days here:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[billyboy15]

From Hahvad?

Wouldn’t be trying to create a self fulfilling prophesy now would he?

Nah, why would a Liberal do that?

[Carriage Hill]

Sum-Ting-Wong with those names...

[TexasGator]

But you would be singing it from a high tower if some conspiracy bloggist said it.

[winoneforthegipper]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html#click=https://t.co/leVVAcaTm7

Try them.

If you are trusting anything coming out of China in as far as statistics then you are sincerely being chicken little’s long lost cousin...the ostrich.

[Fungi]

Berry Wong....too much dim sum....

[grey_whiskers]

Sum Ting Wong.

Ah Chu.

Ho Lee Fuk.

So Long Xi.

[TheTimeOfMan]

How Anglo of you.

Seriously. You need to get out more.