Posted on 01/31/2020 2:13:09 PM PST by SeekAndFind
The outbreak of a new coronavirus has sparked fear and anxiety around the world.
The pneumonialike virus, which originated in Wuhan, China, has infected more than 9,700 people and killed 213.
So far, the virus does not seem to be as deadly as SARS, which killed 774 people from 2002 to 2003. SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6%, whereas about 2% of people infected with the new coronavirus have died. But the number of people infected after one month has already surpassed the SARS outbreak's eight-month total.
Many patients with coronavirus have already made full recoveries. According to Chinese officials, most of those who've died were elderly or had other ailments that compromised their immune systems. Public-health experts say that for the most part, panic over the Wuhan coronavirus outside of China is unproductive and unwarranted. The public should take precautions to avoid getting sick, but the most effective preventative measures are everyday actions like increased handwashing and not touching your face.
Amira Roess, a professor of global health and epidemiology at George Mason University, told Business Insider that fear would not stop the spread of the virus and could cause negative social impacts.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
How dare you post something that refutes the hysteria we’re currently witnessing! /sarc
” most of those who’ve died were elderly or had other ailments that compromised their immune systems.”
No surprise there.
I getYOU now. Indeed the sample size is too small now to really know.
However, many on FR are promoting death/recovery ratio as the actual “fatality rate”, which it is definitely not!
Sorry, I did not realize where you were going with your comments.
One waits a couple of weeks, in order to get a real estimate of the death/recovery rate. Its almost impossible to do in the early stages of an outbreak, because the newly discovered infected outweigh those who have been through the disease and therapy process, for better or worse.
Exactly. My point was that calculating a low (2-3%) fatality rate at this point is not logical. It is simply too soon.
On the other hand, differences in detection and health-care quality could mean a wide variance as well.
I’m hoping we have drugs to treat this. The WA case looks promising from that respect.
We’ll see.
Hopefully the CDC mortality/morbidity estimates will be completely wrong, in a good way.
These numbers don’t add up.Most of the 11,145 neither died nor recovered.
“Experts reveal why it’s causing panic anyway.”
social media + “smart” phones ...
Yep. I had heard a little about this "new Chinese flu", but all hell broke loose last week on Jan 24, and that's when I started really paying attention.
You’re right. With Ebola, most the infected died before they could pass the disease on to very many.
What a terrible way to go, though.
“It is a new or novel disease and the media need catastrophes to sell eyeballs”
ESPECIALLY because the impeachment charade is about to wind up ...
As of today (1/31/2020) 259 dead 11,329 infected
and this is still waiting for 5 PM update.
Still increasing at a rate of doubling every 3 days.
“So, 213 people have died, and 171 have recovered...”
Then the problem is quite a bit worse than I thought. :)
As of now, it's Zero.
"Coronaviruses were first identified in the 1960s...Almost everyone gets a coronavirus infection at least once in their life, most likely as a young child. In the United States, coronaviruses are more common in the fall and winter, but anyone can come down with a coronavirus infection at any time."[1]
There have been no deaths outside of China. Allegedly, this variant has been around since December (could be even longer than that). Yet, in our ultra connected world, there have been zero deaths outside of China.
Every year, the "common" flu (which mutates to some degree year to year) kills around 34,000 people in the United States alone.[2]
Yet, there is no where near the coverage...or panic...with those numbers. Why? Well, partly because of social media, example, showing someone falling over in the street. However, did that person die? Did that person faint? Did that person have an unrelated stroke or heart attack? Was that person simply dehydrated and passed out? Who knows, but the visual and the "commentary" is powerful coupled with people walking around in bio suits.
If the media, and in some corners...public hysteria continues, this currently very non deadly seasonal virus could...could sink Trumps re-election.
Why? Panic and fear are very powerful and leads many to do things against their otherwise better judgement. I'm generally not referring to conservatives here.
The stock market just had a bad week. If this coronavirus continues to be in the headline for many more weeks to come, the market could get really ugly. More of "middle America" have a stake in the market (eg. 401k's, IRA's, etc) now than before so that's a direct hit to their personal financial situation.
Imagine what happens when (inevitably) the first death occurs in the U.S. that is connected to this coronavirus. The media, and some in our country, will panic even more, after that 1 death.
Now imagine if within the next few months there are 340 deaths here...in the U.S...there will be a hysteria and a meltdown like we haven't seen in recent years. And that would only be approximately 1% of the deaths that occur from the yearly seasonal flu. One Percent.
But the 24x7 "coverage" will have an affect on people unlike their 3 year coup attempt has and Trump will be blamed and he will loose support from many of the "independents" and "blue dog dems" that are required for re-election. Pocket book and personal/family health care issues are a more potent issue than what we all know is a bogus impeachment.
This hysteria could get to such a fever pitch (pun intended), that it negatively affects Trumps re-election.
If the (D)'s were wicked smart, they will eventually latch on to this idea and ramp up the hysteria and blame Trump in the coming weeks.
It's no wonder Trump just declared a public emergency regarding 2019-nCoV. He's trying to get out ahead of this eventuality.
Remember. As of now, there are Zero deaths outside China all over the rest of the entire world.
We shouldn't ignore this virus. And we certainly shouldn't ignore what the Tiananmen Square brutal 3rd world wanna be 1st world Communist dictatorship is doing within their own country.
Be aware.
However, IMV, we also shouldn't panic because of all the headlines, blog rumors and rampant social media speculation.
2019-nCoV mortality rate: 0.0% , outside China.
No region with fewer than 40 cases has had a fatality yet.
I suspect there is usually some lag between diagnosis and keeling over, during which time, unless one is careful, it spreads.
If the other regions are still sitting at no fatalities two weeks from now and no significant spread, all will be hunky dory.
Wasn’t there a game/simulator a couple of years ago that allowed you to make decisions to see how long it took for a pandemic to kill 90%+ of the population on the planet?
Many of the choices were counter-intuitive.
Who wrote this, Baghdad Bob?
That crossed my mind, too, but they would be absolutely destroying themselves in the process.
Temporarily yes, but China can make do with less than we can. They are used to it, we are not.
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