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The Wuhan coronavirus seems to have a low fatality rate, and most patients make full recoveries. Experts reveal why it's causing panic anyway.
Business Insider ^ | 01/31/2020 | Holly Secon

Posted on 01/31/2020 2:13:09 PM PST by SeekAndFind

 

The outbreak of a new coronavirus has sparked fear and anxiety around the world.

The pneumonialike virus, which originated in Wuhan, China, has infected more than 9,700 people and killed 213.

So far, the virus does not seem to be as deadly as SARS, which killed 774 people from 2002 to 2003. SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6%, whereas about 2% of people infected with the new coronavirus have died. But the number of people infected after one month has already surpassed the SARS outbreak's eight-month total

Many patients with coronavirus have already made full recoveries. According to Chinese officials, most of those who've died were elderly or had other ailments that compromised their immune systems. Public-health experts say that for the most part, panic over the Wuhan coronavirus outside of China is unproductive and unwarranted. The public should take precautions to avoid getting sick, but the most effective preventative measures are everyday actions like increased handwashing and not touching your face.

Amira Roess, a professor of global health and epidemiology at George Mason University, told Business Insider that fear would not stop the spread of the virus and could cause negative social impacts.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2019ncov; asia; china; coronavirus; disease; fatality; gaslighting; wuhan
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To: SeekAndFind

Experts reveal why it’s causing panic anyway.


Maybe because actions speak louder than words, and if the ChiComs opt to lock down a 100 million of their own people and then shut down interprovincial communication they probably view it as something several magnitudes more serious than acne, whatever the experts maybe saying. And likely they have more knowledge than the “experts”


21 posted on 01/31/2020 2:35:41 PM PST by Hieronymus ("I shall drink--to the Pope, if you please,-still, to Conscience first, and to the Pope afterwards.")
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To: lepton
So, 213 people have died, and 171 have recovered...the remainder of the 9000 are still sick. How does one calculate a “low” fatality rate?

One waits a couple of weeks, in order to get a real estimate of the death/recovery rate. Its almost impossible to do in the early stages of an outbreak, because the newly discovered infected outweigh those who have been through the disease and therapy process, for better or worse.

22 posted on 01/31/2020 2:36:46 PM PST by Pearls Before Swine
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To: lee martell

That scared me to death. I had my son get a flu shot just to discern Ebola from likely flu as fast as possible.

Luckily we have very advanced hospitals which quarantined the few who got it so it did not spread and they eventually recovered. It was hellish, though...major hospital arrangements for weeks just for one patient. The rate on Ebola was very high, so yes, it scared me to death.


23 posted on 01/31/2020 2:37:03 PM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMVs)
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To: SeekAndFind

Chinese doctors tell a different story. The virus is overwhelming the local healthcare industry. So it appears the numbers provided by China are low. We have thousands of deaths every year from flu. And China has hundreds with a population 4 times larger. So you can assume this thing is a magnitude X 4 larger than China is saying.


24 posted on 01/31/2020 2:37:23 PM PST by poinq
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To: Hieronymus

The chicoms going batshit is what caught my notice last week.

Never seen that before.


25 posted on 01/31/2020 2:37:35 PM PST by Black Agnes
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To: lee martell

“Somehow, even that did not spread and mushroom in high fatalities inside the United States. Ebola can kill very quickly under certain conditions.”

You answered your own question!

The sick person became sick so fast, immobilized (bedridden) and died before they could infect too many people.

The Chinese gal that went to Germany - I think it is 6 people now at that company are infected? And as far as I know, the gal still isn’t showing symptoms.


26 posted on 01/31/2020 2:37:52 PM PST by 21twelve
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To: TomGuy
11,145 cases, 258 fatalities, 1,527 serious, 171 recovered,

These numbers don't add up.Most of the 11,145 neither died nor recovered. What happened to them.

27 posted on 01/31/2020 2:38:08 PM PST by AndyJackson
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To: sleddogs

Oops, I see the new figures are out.


28 posted on 01/31/2020 2:38:14 PM PST by sleddogs
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To: the OlLine Rebel

The quality of the numbers can’t be assessed with certainty at this point, but they look to be mediocre to junk. That comparison does have some logic to it.


29 posted on 01/31/2020 2:38:26 PM PST by Hieronymus ("I shall drink--to the Pope, if you please,-still, to Conscience first, and to the Pope afterwards.")
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To: AndyJackson

What happened to them.


still in hospitals


30 posted on 01/31/2020 2:39:17 PM PST by janetjanet998
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To: TomGuy

In the 2018-2019 flu season, there were an estimated 45,000,000 cases of infection with the flu, resulting in 21,000,000 hospital visits, 810,000 hospital admissions, and 61,000 deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html


31 posted on 01/31/2020 2:39:36 PM PST by neverevergiveup
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To: BenLurkin

A lot. And 25-30% of patients in critical condition or nearly so. Not a picnic.


32 posted on 01/31/2020 2:39:55 PM PST by steve86 (Prophecies of Maelmhaedhoc O'Morgair (Latin form: Malachy))
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To: AndyJackson

They are in process and will eventually end up in one of those two categories. The question is “what will happen to them.” Given the current ratio, it looks bad to be in the daisy raising business, as the market will likely be glutted for some time to come.


33 posted on 01/31/2020 2:40:14 PM PST by Hieronymus ("I shall drink--to the Pope, if you please,-still, to Conscience first, and to the Pope afterwards.")
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To: SeekAndFind

“Low mortality rate.”


More people are dying from it than recovering from it.


34 posted on 01/31/2020 2:43:32 PM PST by kaehurowing
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To: Black Agnes

The chicoms going batshit is what caught my notice last week.

Never seen that before.


Yeah. I fell asleep to Agenda Free TV about a week ago, and woke up at 3 in the morning to hear it announced that PRIVATE vehicle usage had been banned in Wuhan and the no travel order had reached a 100 million.

At that point I started stockpiling rice. It will last a long time, and rice plus a good supply of canned tomatoes and firewood can make me sleep easier.

In some ways it helps to be in the middle of nowhere, but it is harder to stock up.


35 posted on 01/31/2020 2:45:08 PM PST by Hieronymus ("I shall drink--to the Pope, if you please,-still, to Conscience first, and to the Pope afterwards.")
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To: Black Agnes

The chicoms going batshit is what caught my notice last week.

Never seen that before.


Yeah. I fell asleep to Agenda Free TV about a week ago, and woke up at 3 in the morning to hear it announced that PRIVATE vehicle usage had been banned in Wuhan and the no travel order had reached a 100 million.

At that point I started stockpiling rice. It will last a long time, and rice plus a good supply of canned tomatoes and firewood can make me sleep easier.

In some ways it helps to be in the middle of nowhere, but it is harder to stock up.


36 posted on 01/31/2020 2:45:13 PM PST by Hieronymus ("I shall drink--to the Pope, if you please,-still, to Conscience first, and to the Pope afterwards.")
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To: the OlLine Rebel

The point is, it is early in the cycle and using the 2.2% figure is misleading. Without a doubt, the 60% figure is misleading - even assuming China has started telling the truth on their numbers.

The fatality rate is not a very certain number at all in this part of the cycle. While more comforting though, the 2.2% figure and the 60% figure are similarly uncertain, since the 2.2% figure is more based upon the spread rate than it is the actual fatality rate.

Because fatality rate means how many die OUT OF HOW MANY WERE SICK.


Exactly. Not how many will eventually die of out of those who ARE sick.


37 posted on 01/31/2020 2:50:22 PM PST by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: AndyJackson

Apparently, they are still ill, undergoing some type of medical treatment.
38 posted on 01/31/2020 2:50:55 PM PST by TomGuy
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To: SeekAndFind

It is a new or novel disease and the media need catastrophes to sell eyeballs....

Except it got boring a few days ago....


39 posted on 01/31/2020 2:51:25 PM PST by Vendome (I've Gotta Be Me https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB0ndRzaz2o)
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To: SeekAndFind

Consider this: What if it’s a test virus with a relatively harmless payload? And what if they’re testing to see if it infects specific segments of the population?


40 posted on 01/31/2020 2:52:47 PM PST by DouglasKC
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