Posted on 01/30/2020 10:26:40 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Oh, but the epidemiologists of FR say this is nothing to worry about, no big deal, overblown.
Because flu.
Going to be in the DC area this weekend with Saturday pretty much free. Thought maybe I’d do some touristy stuff. Thought better of it.
So, a person that travelled from China, not knowing about the disease, infected their spouse. That is to be expected.
Thanks for posting. Very interesting.
Was anyone under the impression that there couldn’t be human to human transmission here?
What a nothing burger.
hurr it’s not as bad as the Spanish Flu in my day. /s
Palmer, I think it has to be spread by casual contact.
I’m sure it spreads within a family. I’m also sure it spreads by casual contact.
For the first person in a family to contract the disease, they’d pretty much have to do it through exposure in public.
All I can do is speculate at this point, but it seems to spread like the flu.
You are addressing the low numbers, but many folks are sure we are being lied to about that (by China). That may be the case.
It would seem these issues could easily be answered by studying the folks outside of China who have contracted the disease.
Like the bus driver in Japan who caught it from a tour group.
China had 6-8 weeks of spreading so far. 10k cases is pretty minimal after that length of time. There might be a lot more cases. If there are 10x or 100x more cases, then the mortality rate is 10x or 100x lower, unless the Chinese are also lying about mortality. But it is much harder to lie about the mortality.
That’s along the lines of what I’m considering.
Good example.
Oh noes - the flu is transferable to someone you sleep with! Probably got it through the eyes! This has never happened before!
Aieeeeeee!
It would seem to me to be very likely that they are picking up bodies at private residences. I’m not sure how anyone could quantify a collective number for that. If one or two bodies are picked up on your block, it doesn’t seem real ominous. Across the city, it may be.
I don’t talk about this much, because it’s impossible to quantify.
I’m going by the Johns Hopkins University numbers, and the infected people who are outside of China.
“China had 6-8 weeks of spreading so far. 10k cases is pretty minimal after that length of time.”
SARS took two years to reach those numbers. CV took two months.
That’s true. Luckily, the mortality rate hasn’t been as high as it was with SARS. “Then, SARS infected 5,237 people in mainland China and had a global death toll of almost 800.” (note this doesn’t give a total global “cases” number.
At 5578, the Coronavirus death toll was 131 globally. All of them within China...
https://time.com/5772481/china-coronavirus-latest/
This doesn’t sound terrible. If it takes that much contact, then we are pretty safe.
I’m more worried about the availability of testing. And the possibility that it’s spreading and we don’t know it yet.
But I would think unexplained cases of pneumonia would be popping up soon if not already. I assume that pneumonia cases would be automatically tested for flu. And if they have the flu, no reason to suspect Coronavirus.
Wanted to define the total SARS numbers. This should help.
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Key Facts
SARS was caused by a new coronavirus that had never been found in people before.
In 2003, a total of 8,096 people in 29 countries got SARS and 774 of them died.
Only eight people in the United States got SARS. None of them died.
Health professionals around the world worked together to successfully contain the outbreak in 2003.
In six months, the global SARS outbreak cost the world an estimated $40 billion.
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It should be noted that as of this morning there were 8,235 cases of Coronavirus globally, and 171 deaths to date.
https://www.cdc.gov/dotw/sars/index.html
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