China had 6-8 weeks of spreading so far. 10k cases is pretty minimal after that length of time. There might be a lot more cases. If there are 10x or 100x more cases, then the mortality rate is 10x or 100x lower, unless the Chinese are also lying about mortality. But it is much harder to lie about the mortality.
It would seem to me to be very likely that they are picking up bodies at private residences. I’m not sure how anyone could quantify a collective number for that. If one or two bodies are picked up on your block, it doesn’t seem real ominous. Across the city, it may be.
I don’t talk about this much, because it’s impossible to quantify.
I’m going by the Johns Hopkins University numbers, and the infected people who are outside of China.
“China had 6-8 weeks of spreading so far. 10k cases is pretty minimal after that length of time.”
SARS took two years to reach those numbers. CV took two months.