[dp0622]

How do we know how many people got better at home and didn’t see a doctor?

Just asking.

I usually have to be borderline dead before I go to a doctor.

[Wayne07]

You are right no way to know, and you are surely right that there are many people who are sick and just staying home. But that means total cases would be largely underreported. That’s good/bad news. Good that it is less lethal, bad that it is more contagious than currently reported.

[DoodleBob]

In short, no...many people monitoring this thing are quick to suggest (and they're likely correct) there is massive underreporting on both the diagnosis and death side. This isn't unusual in the early days of a fast-moving situation, and since we're dealing with a regime not noted for their honesty and transparency, it is likely compounded.

Your point is a good one insofar as there may be people in the quarantined areas that are sick but (out of concern for the overcrowding in the hospitals or fear of never being seen again etc) decide to "shelter-in." To the extent coronovirus isn't super-lethal, then the numbers get biased because we will only see the hospitalized and died-in-hospital numbers.

There are lots of people who think this is The Big One based on "authorities" telling us so or the actions of the Chinese government. There are some people who seem to think this is a fake, like the people who think Sandy Hook was a crisis actor play. Others think there IS something going on - we can't tell if it's a bad flu or SARS-like - but they smell the same smelly smells that accompany "climate change" scientists and activists, and see "experts" who also think having a gun in a pandemic isn't a good idea and adopt a cautious approach to monitoring. Some sides call the other sides names. It's like 11th grade at times.

Your mileage may vary.

[Zhang Fei]

[How do we know how many people got better at home and didn’t see a doctor?

Just asking.

I usually have to be borderline dead before I go to a doctor.]

---

That may be a huge factor in China. I get the impression that many believe in magic (aka Chinese herbs) and will only go to a real doctor at a point when it would have saved everyone a lot of time and trouble if they had gone directly to the undertaker.

[catnipman]

“How do we know how many people got better at home and didn’t see a doctor?”

that’s exactly right ... for example, percentage-wise, only a tiny percentage of those with influenza go to the ER or land in a hospital, so just looking at fatalities in that small, extremely ill population doesn’t tell you what the fatality rate is in the population of everyone who contracts influenza: those numbers have to be ESTIMATED ...

not only that, but REPORTED cases of influenza are simply a very tiny percentage of those who actually get tested ... so it’s difficult to draw conclusions about 4,500 cases with 1,000 in critical condition, particularly since this is all being reported though the filters of the PRC and the extremely unreliable Manchester Guardian ...

additionally, how are the these “confirmed” cases being confirmed in the PRC? ... are they actually being tested specifically for coronavirus? ... because in the U.S. apparently there’s a backlog at the CDC (the only place coronavirus can be tested for in the U.S.) for a minuscule number of suspected cases being tested ... are we to believe that the PRC has the instant capability to QUICKLY test tens of thousands of a brand new virus like coronavirus though out all of its vast territory? i really don’t think so ...

so, bottom line, it’s way too soon to be drawing apocalyptic conclusions about the mortality of this virus ... however, if you REALLY want to panic, think about what happens to the world economy if panic and quarantines spread through out the PRC and the $2.5 TRILLION dollars worth of goods they export to the world is seriously disrupted ... that alone could cause more chaos than the virus and much sooner ...