Hong Kong cuts China transport links as coronavirus toll mounts

Guardian ^ | 1/28/20 | Rebecca Ratcliffe

[Wayne07]

About 4,515 cases of the illness have been recorded across the country, including almost 1,000 people in critical condition, according to state media. Though the number of cases appears to have risen quickly, from 2,887 on Monday, this was likely to be due to better reporting, and the numbers remain small compared with the population.

[Wayne07]

The lede was buried in this article, that 25% of the patients with coronavirus are in critical condition.

Only now, almost a month since the first case, is the US expanding screenings at US airports. even now, 20% of the people arriving FROM CHINA aren't being screened. Only today is the CDC finally expanding the travel warning to all of China. US response has been extremely slow, and if this gets wore will look really bad in retrospect.

[Zhang Fei]

[The lede was buried in this article, that 25% of the patients with coronavirus are in critical condition. ]

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I assume that means they’re hooked up to oxygen tanks and IV’s. That’s certainly a great higher than the % of flu patients who need this.

[Black Agnes]

How many people in the CDC are ‘resistance’ and would love to get rid of Trump by making this his Katrina?

[plain talk]

“The lede was buried in this article, that 25% of the patients with coronavirus are in critical condition.”

That’s an important point particularly to any remaining scoffers who somehow think the 3% death rate is not that bad. Many that live will go through hell, ICU, etc.

[GulfMan]

Screening at Airports won’t do jack squat, they need to STOP flights or ship them in by the 10,000’s and let’s get this thing over with.

[Black Agnes]

We’ve only got about 150,000 ICU beds in the US if another poster was correct.

That means millions will NEED an ICU bed but not get one.

And better hope you don’t have a heart attack, stroke or simple strep throat during that time...

[dp0622]

How do we know how many people got better at home and didn’t see a doctor?

Just asking.

I usually have to be borderline dead before I go to a doctor.

[grey_whiskers]

That'd be never-Trumpers in the CDC and similar.

Some MD from University of Washington was on NBC blaming Trump; and Elizabeth Warren has started too.

Someone on the FR thread on Warren, said she must not be over the smallpox blankets yet, LOL.

[Wayne07]

You are right no way to know, and you are surely right that there are many people who are sick and just staying home. But that means total cases would be largely underreported. That’s good/bad news. Good that it is less lethal, bad that it is more contagious than currently reported.

[dp0622]

I think they’re slowly trying to break it to us that it has a death rate of 20 percent or better.

I’m just trying to look for a bright side.

They admit it is MUCH more contagious than they thought.

This could kill a lot of people.

It WILL in China.

I’m hoping it doesn’t here.

I also don’t want Chinese folks to die left and right either. Their lives are miserable enough.

[RightGeek]

So when does the USA cut transport links with China?

[DannyTN]

Maybe but the CDC was slow and less than cautious with SARS and EBOLA too. I actually think they have improved, but have far to go. The inconvenience of quarantining people for 14 days vs the deaths that will occur if this spreads through our population is miniscule. Possibilities include:

• The CDC is fatalistic and think it is going to spread anyway so why bother.
• They're lazy. There is work involve in quarantining.
• Never waste a crisis. A good crisis will boost funding for the CDC. What's a few thousand lives compared to a budget and salary increase?
• They're beauracratics. I'm not making the decision. You make the decision.
• They don't have leadership. Hey the WHO hasn't declared it a global pandemic yet, so let's not overreact.
• We've got procedures. Those procedures weren't written for this, but hey, we are following our procedures.

[Black Agnes]

I’ll take ‘G’, all of the above.

[Black Agnes]

Apparently when too many of the pilots are too sick to fly or dead.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[MeganC]

“So when does the USA cut transport links with China?”

That would be ‘racist’ so the Democrats will oppose it.

[Monkey Face]

Strep throat is rarely “simple.” It often leads to Scarlet Fever and more often that not, damages the hearts of those who get it, especially children and elderly.

But your point is made.

‘Face

[DoodleBob]

In short, no...many people monitoring this thing are quick to suggest (and they're likely correct) there is massive underreporting on both the diagnosis and death side. This isn't unusual in the early days of a fast-moving situation, and since we're dealing with a regime not noted for their honesty and transparency, it is likely compounded.

Your point is a good one insofar as there may be people in the quarantined areas that are sick but (out of concern for the overcrowding in the hospitals or fear of never being seen again etc) decide to "shelter-in." To the extent coronovirus isn't super-lethal, then the numbers get biased because we will only see the hospitalized and died-in-hospital numbers.

There are lots of people who think this is The Big One based on "authorities" telling us so or the actions of the Chinese government. There are some people who seem to think this is a fake, like the people who think Sandy Hook was a crisis actor play. Others think there IS something going on - we can't tell if it's a bad flu or SARS-like - but they smell the same smelly smells that accompany "climate change" scientists and activists, and see "experts" who also think having a gun in a pandemic isn't a good idea and adopt a cautious approach to monitoring. Some sides call the other sides names. It's like 11th grade at times.

Your mileage may vary.

[Zhang Fei]

[How do we know how many people got better at home and didn’t see a doctor?

Just asking.

I usually have to be borderline dead before I go to a doctor.]

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That may be a huge factor in China. I get the impression that many believe in magic (aka Chinese herbs) and will only go to a real doctor at a point when it would have saved everyone a lot of time and trouble if they had gone directly to the undertaker.

[Black Agnes]

I was imprecise in my statement.

If you get strep throat in the middle of some sort of pneumonia epidemic. You MIGHT not get antibiotic because it’s all being used on the pneumonia patients...

Plus, that might be dodgy now anyways, most of our antibiotics are made in china.