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Why Republicans may lose Texas
thehill.com ^ | 01/26/20 05:00 PM EST | Kristin Tate

Posted on 01/27/2020 3:20:11 PM PST by SharpRightTurn

Texas is the archetypal conservative state, especially since it claims the mantle as having the most electoral votes for Republican candidates. Its fast growing economy and population are signs that its small government approach works. However, there is compelling evidence that in addition to data showing Texas is being pushed to the left thanks to migration from blue states, internal state migration is also changing the political map.

There are more than just interstate and international factors turning Texas blue. Like a variety of states with vibrant rural and urban areas within their borders, Texas itself is surprisingly divided. As a result, internal migration within the state itself provides as much pressure toward its future division as Californians and Mexican immigrants. On the whole, rural areas across the country are losing density. The rural population of the United States is about 60 million, almost exactly the same as it stood at the end of World War Two. The result is that this share of the total population has dropped from nearly half of the country back then to just under a fifth today. The urban population of the United States, meanwhile, has almost tripled.

....

The concentration of young people in Texas moving from smaller to larger counties, sharply leaning to the left, and becoming more politically active brings on increasing electoral importance to cities such as San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, and Austin. This growth by leaps and bounds means that the political weight of cities is increasing more rapidly than that of rural areas. Whether it be a portion of the Texas electorate or state and federal redistricting, the major cities could soon have veto power over the wishes of the rural areas of the state, similar to that of Chicago or New York City.

The coming blue wave in Texas has already started. Democrats won more than a dozen seats in the state legislature in the 2018 election and even threatened the Senate seat held by Ted Cruz. The combination of sharply Democratic cities and suburban areas shading blue is a long run political disaster in the making for Republicans. We are fortunate enough to view the demographic changes in Texas in detail as a warning and potential model for other states. Any state with stagnant or declining rural areas and dominant or growing urban regions could also suffer a similar fate.

The 2020 election is not likely to hand Texas away from Republicans, but as I have previously written, it may be close enough to force Republicans to expend resources there. The growth of urban and suburban locales will play a major role in redistricting after the census. On the one hand, Texas will gain two or three seats in the House of Representatives. On the other hand, many changes in the state house after the 2020 election will allow for more competitive seats leaning toward Democrats. Left wingers have already made it a goal to flip the Texas state house blue, and are raking in millions of dollars in campaign donations from liberals outside the state.

....


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: city; ftheastros; kristintate; mediaconcerntrolls; migration; rural; texas; thehill; thehillary; theshill
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"Kristin Tate is a libertarian writer and an analyst for Young Americans for Liberty. She is an author whose latest book is “How Do I Tax Thee? A Field Guide to the Great American Rip-Off.”

Not going to happen in 2020, but this is the Leftist Christmas dream.

1 posted on 01/27/2020 3:20:11 PM PST by SharpRightTurn
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To: SharpRightTurn

Excerpt.


2 posted on 01/27/2020 3:21:17 PM PST by SharpRightTurn (Chuck Schumer--giving pond scum everywhere a bad name.)
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To: SharpRightTurn

Not going to happen in 2020, but this is the Leftist Christmas dream.


Dems won’t mind if it takes until 2030. Virginia is the canary in the coal mine and it just died. Best to heed that warning instead of doing a premature victory lap on 2020.


3 posted on 01/27/2020 3:23:01 PM PST by lodi90
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To: SharpRightTurn

And she conveniently ignored the Gop Gov won huge .
More BS spinning and wishful thinking .
She is a Ron Paul lefty .


4 posted on 01/27/2020 3:25:18 PM PST by ncalburt (Gop DC Globalist)
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To: SharpRightTurn

Trump won by 9% but there were 2 faithless electors so he got 36 EV instead of 38.
dont think you can make up 9% in one cycle, espically this cycle, but hey, who knows?


5 posted on 01/27/2020 3:25:46 PM PST by calljack (Sometimes your worst nightmare is just a start.)
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To: SharpRightTurn

Texas would have already been lost of only people under 30 voted. And you have Perry and Abbott running all over California and New York, luring every company they can. They also LOVE them some camel jockeys.

And these natural democrats are pouring into the state, determined to recreate the hellholes they fled.

Texas GOP politicians are literally the fabled capitalist who will happily sell the very rope intended to hang them with.


6 posted on 01/27/2020 3:26:14 PM PST by DesertRhino (Dog is man's best friend, and moslems hate dogs. Add that up. ....)
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To: SharpRightTurn
Not going to happen in 2020, but this is the Leftist Christmas dream.

Agree on 2020 but IMO, as a long-time Texan, all bets are off starting in 2024.

7 posted on 01/27/2020 3:26:56 PM PST by Al B. ("Evil is powerless if the good are unafraid." -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: SharpRightTurn
M A Y !
8 posted on 01/27/2020 3:26:59 PM PST by DoughtyOne (It's a New Year, and time to up our FR Monthlies by 5-10%. You'll <hardly miss it and it will help.)
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To: lodi90
Virgina is a special case.It went Rat for the same reason Maryland is Rat and for the same reason that DC went 95% for ILLary. I'm sure you can figure out what those three places have in common.

The only thing that can destroy Texas is its proximity to Kalifornia...and to the border.

9 posted on 01/27/2020 3:27:33 PM PST by Gay State Conservative (The Rats Can't Get Over The Fact That They Lost A Rigged Election)
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To: SharpRightTurn

If we lose Texas, we lose America...Electoral College that is.


10 posted on 01/27/2020 3:27:46 PM PST by donozark (Free Roger Stone!)
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To: SharpRightTurn

We were watching some cooking show and a cook was from Texas. I commented to my wife “what ever happened to the Texas drawl”? More and more Texans sound just like you an me. Just another, sadly big melting pot, of liberals.


11 posted on 01/27/2020 3:28:03 PM PST by Sam Gamgee
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To: lodi90

I think VA will reverse course..next election....


12 posted on 01/27/2020 3:29:35 PM PST by Osage Orange (Whiskey Tango Foxtrot)
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To: SharpRightTurn

She is dead on right. Texans hate gun rights, lower taxes, restricted freedoms, wants more homelessness and people crapping in the streets. Liberals coming to the rescue!


13 posted on 01/27/2020 3:29:43 PM PST by Bommer (2020 - Vote all incumbent congressmen and senators out! VOTE THE BUMS OUT!!!)
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To: SharpRightTurn

With America under active invasion, the only question is not if Texas will flip, but rather when.


14 posted on 01/27/2020 3:29:47 PM PST by JonPreston
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To: SharpRightTurn

15 posted on 01/27/2020 3:31:14 PM PST by Theoria (I should never have surrendered. I should have fought until I was the last man alive)
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To: SharpRightTurn

Also there is a sickness in suburban women. They love abortion, faggotry, drag queen story hour, etc. They wax on and on about “children in cages”.

Women have lost their minds and it has taken root in Texas. And for all the big talk, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin, are simply giant leftist cities with a twang. They would all be just comfortable in Virginia. All of those are leftist playgrounds. There is a rot.

The Texas Senate is 19 Republican and 12 Democratic. The House is 83 Republican and 67 Democratic. That is well within 10 year striking distance. And their side is working and organizing relentlessly. Our side puts up a Bush or neocon, or struts around saying it’ll never happen because...”Texas”.

This is a serious threat, and the way to stop it is to Stop the Cornyn, Cruz, Bush mentality. Beto the lightweight retard got shockingly close to defeating Cruz. It was Cruz 50.9 to 48.3 percent; the closest since 1978.


16 posted on 01/27/2020 3:35:59 PM PST by DesertRhino (Dog is man's best friend, and moslems hate dogs. Add that up. ....)
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To: ncalburt

“More BS spinning and wishful thinking .
She is a Ron Paul lefty .”

She’s a libertarian: in favor of a smaller government, including balanced budgets with lower taxes, while also probably holding various lefty ideas. All I know about her is what was in the blurb I posted.

I’m not in high anxiety mode about Texas, but we should all remember that California was once reliably Republican.

And denial is not a river in Egypt. Plan ahead,


17 posted on 01/27/2020 3:36:00 PM PST by SharpRightTurn (Chuck Schumer--giving pond scum everywhere a bad name.)
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To: SharpRightTurn

let’s be honest, this is overwhelmingly illegals voting illegally

get rid of the illegals and Trump wins popular vote nationally by 7-9 million votes


18 posted on 01/27/2020 3:39:11 PM PST by thoughtomator (... this has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.)
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To: calljack

Trump won by 9% but there were 2 faithless electors so he got 36 EV instead of 38.
dont think you can make up 9% in one cycle, espically this cycle, but hey, who knows?

Well they took almost all the republican seats in California..
Cruz won by what 1.5% Abbott won by 5-7% They could pull it off with their voting scheme!! Ballot box stuffing and voter cheating!!! Dead people, Illegals, absentee voting!!


19 posted on 01/27/2020 3:41:50 PM PST by tallyhoe
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To: SharpRightTurn

Go away Katie you’re embarrassing yourself.


20 posted on 01/27/2020 3:43:27 PM PST by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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