Posted on 12/16/2019 1:50:17 PM PST by DOC44
Here’s hoping. I have heard this nonsense too many times. I will believe it when I see. The year blacks stop voting against their own self interest, the Democrats are done for at least a quarter century.
Trump would have to get 35-40% black men to get 20% because he’ll never get more than 5% of black women. No matter what. In other words,10% as usual.
The most recent Emerson poll of 1,092 registered voters was conducted Nov. 17–20.
According to the article, this was the size of one of the poll samples.
The Democrats about six months before election day will find or set up a racial incident that will “shock” the world and use it to return the straying blacks back to the democrat plantation.
Who Obama publicly said "doesn't have it" and whom he advised not to run!
Sorry but just not true. 20-30% among black men, 4% among black women in OVERLY SMALL SAMPLE SIZES... do not equate to a 20 or 30% support..
I’ve run the numbers folks, if you think Trump is going to get 20% black support in the 2020 election you are deluding yourselves.
I have ever confidence Trump will get a better percentage in 20 than 16, but the idea that he’s going to get 20 to 30% of the black vote is just self delusion.
Trump Outperformed Romney with both blacks and hispanics in 2016... and that was with 8% of the black vote and 28% of the hispanic vote.
He will improve on those numbers, but believe me he’s not getting 20% of the black vote nationally...
When you show me a national poll of 600+ black likely voters, that shows you a 20% or more support for Trump then you have something to talk about... anything smaller than that... and you are fooling yourselves.
There are about 40,000,000 blacks in this country, to get a poll with a margin of error of +/- 3% you need to poll at least 600 people with a good random distribution to get a 95% confidence level.
Until you see a poll like that published... You are seeing nothing more than people jumping to conclusions who do not understand polling, statistics or mathematics.
For Trump get 20% black support, would be a tidal wave... you wouldn’t need a poll to see it.
Trump got 11% support from blacks in TX in2016.. 3 points above where he wound up nationally.
TX overall is little under 12% AA, and DALLAS is about 24% AA... With 11% support, even with no movement from 2016, One would expect a good turnout in Dallas to see Trump.
Folks really need to get better acquainted with mathematics before they make ridiculous claims.
Trump will and should do better with AA’s than he did in 16, but he’s not going to pull 20%... not even close. He will likely be on the higher end of a typical GOP candidate, 10-12%... but he’s not going to get 20% of the black vote.. folks are deluding themselves that think that way.
Perhaps they want to vote for a fellow colored guy?
PDJT has done more for Americans, INCLUDING black Americans, than any recent president. Black Americans will vote for him, all he has to do is keep reaching out to them, meeting with them, communicating with them... to show them that the DNC “he’s a bigot” bullsheit is simply a Big Lie
that’s the issue. not his policies, not his personality, not his ‘tweets’...not even his orange hair (is that real???), just overcoming the 24/7 Bullsheit character assassination
the votes are there for him, no pandering needed just more reaching out with straight honest discussion, especially about jobs and economic growth, prosperity
Gettin’ off the Plantation.
AKA Fuzz Daddy
I agree. I have prayed the black vote had to be earned by someone. I also pray that the black vote is based on what is best for Americans in general.
The overall poll was 1092... the subsection that was African American was likely around 100 or so, possibly less...
So what you have are people who don’t understand polling or statistics see... of the 100 (making it up don’t know the real numbers, here but making it up to keep it simple) Blacks polled 24 said they intend to vote for Trump.
So someone who doesn’t understand this sees the 24% support among blacks and then claims Trump has 24% among blacks, which is nonsense.
There are about 40,000,000 African Americans in the US... go produce a good poll result you would need to poll 600 African Americans with a reasonably good random distribution to produce an outcome that is 95% confidence level and a +/- 3% margin of error.
When you see a poll that questions that many or more African Americans and they are considered likely voters to boot and you get a 20% of more support for Trump get back to me...
If Trump is getting 20% support among black americans you won’t need a poll to see it, it will be seismic and visible on the ground... I have no doubt Trump will improve on his 16 numbers, and I fully expect him to be on the high range of the typical GOP candidate 10-12% range which at 12% nationally would a 50% improvement over 16 for him.. but the idea that he’s on the verge of improving his support among blacks to 20 or 30% is just folks living in self delusion. Those numbers would be 2-3 times the support any GOP candidate has ever gotten for the Presidency.
Reagan’s landslide re-election in 1984 he only got 9% of the black vote.
Folks REALLY, REALLY need to check their enthusiasm.
Bush got 11% of the black vote in 1988, 10% in 1992.
Dole actually has the highest of any GOP with 12% in 1996.
If Trump passes 12% he’ll have garnered the largest percentage of the black vote of any GOP candidate in the modern age... And he may do it. He might get up to 13 or 14% which would be an incredible accomplishment if he were to pull it off.. Hell if he just gets to 12% he’s matched the best GOP showing in the modern era.
However the idea that Trump is on the verge of somehow nearly doubling the best showing of any GOP candidate or more... is just self delusion folks.
Okay. And blacks account for 13% of the vote, so 14% of 13% (best case scenario) is 1.8% of the total vote. Not exactly Earth shattering considering the number of illegals being added daily to the voter rolls.
Black men give me hope. Black women are a scourge to this country and western civilization. Just bein’ real.
One huge a$$ kicking like we ain't never seen
Hey Maxine Waters, WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?
They don't have statistics on the difference between Married and unmarried black women that I'm aware of
The real issue is that Trump has an election apparatus that is 10x better than 2016. He has the data, and that is whats going to GOTV
White liberal elites' idea of 'jobs for the black community' is a 'community center named after MLK AND two job training centers that don't place anyone...
Warning:
White Liberal "Elites" who murder conservative children signal each other by scratching their heads. Look for the signals... it could save your child's life...
(very similar to the OK sign the Southern Poverty Law Center has identified as outing 'white supremacists' - except 'head scratches' out liberal elite killers) Stay safe conservatives... -----
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