The most recent Emerson poll of 1,092 registered voters was conducted Nov. 17–20.
According to the article, this was the size of one of the poll samples.
The overall poll was 1092... the subsection that was African American was likely around 100 or so, possibly less...
So what you have are people who don’t understand polling or statistics see... of the 100 (making it up don’t know the real numbers, here but making it up to keep it simple) Blacks polled 24 said they intend to vote for Trump.
So someone who doesn’t understand this sees the 24% support among blacks and then claims Trump has 24% among blacks, which is nonsense.
There are about 40,000,000 African Americans in the US... go produce a good poll result you would need to poll 600 African Americans with a reasonably good random distribution to produce an outcome that is 95% confidence level and a +/- 3% margin of error.
When you see a poll that questions that many or more African Americans and they are considered likely voters to boot and you get a 20% of more support for Trump get back to me...
If Trump is getting 20% support among black americans you won’t need a poll to see it, it will be seismic and visible on the ground... I have no doubt Trump will improve on his 16 numbers, and I fully expect him to be on the high range of the typical GOP candidate 10-12% range which at 12% nationally would a 50% improvement over 16 for him.. but the idea that he’s on the verge of improving his support among blacks to 20 or 30% is just folks living in self delusion. Those numbers would be 2-3 times the support any GOP candidate has ever gotten for the Presidency.
Reagan’s landslide re-election in 1984 he only got 9% of the black vote.
Folks REALLY, REALLY need to check their enthusiasm.
Bush got 11% of the black vote in 1988, 10% in 1992.
Dole actually has the highest of any GOP with 12% in 1996.
If Trump passes 12% he’ll have garnered the largest percentage of the black vote of any GOP candidate in the modern age... And he may do it. He might get up to 13 or 14% which would be an incredible accomplishment if he were to pull it off.. Hell if he just gets to 12% he’s matched the best GOP showing in the modern era.
However the idea that Trump is on the verge of somehow nearly doubling the best showing of any GOP candidate or more... is just self delusion folks.