Posted on 10/18/2019 7:14:46 AM PDT by NobleFree
We keep hearing, from the industry and from the Indian press, that denial rates in the H-1B program are rising sharply, that more and more of the dreaded questions about applications (the Request for Evidence (RFE) process) are being asked by DHS staff, and that the post-RFE approval rate in the H-1B program is falling.
So there must be a smaller number of H-1B approvals, right?
Well, no. The number of initial approvals of H-1B applications has risen over the last five years by more than 100,000.
In FY 2015, based on a dataset used both by the Times of India and by the Center, we find that there were 288,501 approvals (of all kinds) in the H-1B program; there were 389,386 of them in the just-finished FY 2019.
How can there be more approvals when the denial rate soars?
The answer can be found in a piece of grade-school math that the Indian publication ignores: the number of H-1B applications filed by U.S. employers. If there are a lot more applications, as there have been, an increasing rate of denials from a modest base will not decrease the number of approvals.
Yes, the denial rate went up from a scrawny 4.3 percent in 2015 to a more respectable 15.1 percent in 2019, but in the same period the number of approvals soared. Both the industry and the Indian press have howled about how much harder the screening process has become; this should be taken with a grain of statistical salt.
In FY 2015, the denials in the H-1B program were at 4.3 percent of the completions (i.e., decisions) meaning that the industry (and the largely Indian H-1B work force) were winning, to put it another way, by a score of 957 to 43; in FY 2019 that score had fallen to 849 to 151, another way of expressing a 15.1 percent denial rate. (These are more like cricket scores than baseball ones.)
The implication of those supporting the H-1B program is that the umpire must be cheating — winning by only 849 to 151 is a scandal!
The reality is that some of the most marginal applications are now being rejected by DHS staff, and that the quality and the legitimacy of the jobs in the program have advanced a small amount.
But is this reducing the inward flow, or the total population, of H-1B workers, which must be close to a million? These are two separate questions.
Since the number of approved initial applications always exceeds the congressionally mandated ceiling of 85,000, the total number of new arrivals will not be affected by this level of denials of initial petitions, though it may be for specific companies.
On the other hand, if many of the denials are on the renewals of petitions — in the past DHS routinely rubber-stamped the renewals, notably for those on the green card waiting lists — that might make a difference in the total population of H-1B workers.
Unfortunately this dataset does not distinguish between initial and renewed visas.
The H-1 B program is for temporary, high-skilled workers, usually college grads, often in the IT industry, and is routinely heavily tilted toward men from India. The hiring practices of the big Indian outsourcing companies — essentially job shops — lean strongly toward choosing young Indian males from the south of that country, a practice that U.S. equal employment policies apparently cannot touch.
The presence of large numbers of temporary workers with only limited labor market rights serves to deny jobs to U.S. workers and to drive down wages, particularly in places where they are concentrated.
DHS is to be commended for publishing the data only days after the end of the fiscal year.
Every time an H1B is hired, a US graduate is discouraged. We are eviscerating our graduate schools and eating our seed corn.
That can’t be true. Donald Trump is putting Americans first!
They are cooking the books, simple as that. H1B needs to be shut down entirely. This practice has wrecked the IT industry.
The Indian out-sourcing companies also out-source the family members of these H1-B people. So for every H1-B you get 3 or 4 adults (not actual family members) who show up in America and take very low paying but technical jobs like software testing and lab work. These people are totally beholden to the company. Either the American company or the out-sourcing company can fire them at the drop of a hat. They get the minimum benefits and the minimum pay. Software testing pays very little now, as compared to other jobs in the same office like programmers or project managers.
US workers are being hired. There is no question that any decent American with a useful college degree can get a good job. And if they are an engineer or programmer, they get great pay and benefits right out of college. Can’t help you if your child graduated with a womens study, English or History degree.
H1B is just a way for employers to force wages down, and nothing more. It has nothing to do with availability of skills. And then when a critical mass of Indians are on board, they start hiring each other and discriminate against non Indians, bringing their sh!thole cultural values with them.
All because the greedy employers and shareholders want to make a quick buck. F them.
I was such a worker for 14 years. The longer I stayed, the more localized I became. Eventually, I wasn't worth the premium wage so the company moved me back to the USA, which worked out well for my situation as the children all had a solid foundation in the Japanese public education system and were able to hit the ground running in the USA.
One of our three even skipped a grade and was so far ahead in Math that she used that time for ESL catch-up for two years. She is over there as an elite hire now and giving our two grandsons the same opportunity she had.
Yes...but about their sophomore/junior year, many, many college kids say to themselves...”Gee these STEM classes are rigorous, I think I’ll be an Econ major and go into Banking instead, (or medicine, or whatever).”
The results of thousands of students making that decision, is less engineers/programmers.
"we find some evidence that the additional H-1B reduces median payroll costs per employee (p<0.05 in one estimate, and p<0.10 in two other estimates, of the four total). The point estimates suggest substantial decreases in payroll costs per employee in these firms" - The Effects of High-Skilled Immigration Policy on Firms: Evidence from Visa Lotteries
Supply and Demand. Econ 101
Yes...but about their sophomore/junior year, many, many college kids say to themselves...”Gee these STEM classes are rigorous, I think I’ll be an Econ major and go into Banking instead, (or medicine, or whatever).”
The results of thousands of students making that decision, is less engineers/programmers.
I have five kids, a programmer, an engineer, a chemist and a math/econ so far. All kids have great jobs. The chemist had the hardest time getting a job because H1-B workers are in all the labs. But the engineer and math/econ majors are nothing but high paid spreadsheet analysts. Understanding simple statistics and how to use Excel with queries or pivot tables gets you a great job. You still need some college degree just so your employer can say their staff all has college degrees.
Your kids did the tough curriculum. I’m talking about the thousands of kids who chose to go an alternate and less rigorous route. (ie non STEM).
List of US IBM Curam users.
1)NCFAST (North Carolina)
2)SCMMRP (South Carolina)
3)DC HealthBenefit Exchange(Washington DC)
4)Arkansas
5)Missouri
6)Nebraska
7)San Diego (California)
8)MNSure (Minnesota)
9)Puerto Rico
10)US Virgin Islands
And it seems that 98% of the developers are Indian. I wonder why?
Illinois Sen Durban efforts ;
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3786383/posts
Let’s hope Pres. Trump puts the full package out there. This should be part of a Comprehensive Immigration Enforcement bill. The List of Comprehensive Immigration Enforcement, missing since 1987 goes like this -
1) southern barrier;
2) require eVerify to hire;
3) end all chain migration;
4) birthright per Minor v. Happersett (plural parents);
5) end work visas;
6) 10-year moratorium on all new applications for citizenship (40 years to allow workplace automation effects on downsizing population);
7) Set up an illegal aliens’ victim restitution fund.
Enactment of these provisions will motivate illegal aliens to SELF-deport, and remove colonizadors from our welfare rolls.
I’m fairly familiar with H1B as I’ve worked in an industry that is heavy with them. Most of them I liked. Not the point.
The point is, in most cases, they are obviously doing jobs Americans can do, and their presence dampens the demand for American workers, and helps to keep wages flat.
Just as tightening the border puts upward pressure on wages for unskilled jobs, tightening H1B puts upward pressure on technical wages and keeps techies from being prematurely pushed into early retirement.
If they completely abolished the H1B program I know one thing for certain. My job would suddenly become much easier and more productive. I hate dealing with them. They think so two dimension ally, it is not even funny. I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s a cultural thing.
Once an indian person is put in charge of hiring process, you will have seen the very last American hired.
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