Posted on 10/03/2019 12:44:26 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
Here is an analysis of the latest The Economist/YouGov Poll for September 28 - October 1, 2019.
RealClearPolitics is showing this poll as the Warren breakaway poll. An analysis of the Independent sample population is mixed: it shows some movement on the impeachment question, but is contradictory when looking at the detailed questions
NOTE: This poll was taken before the details of whistleblower coordination with Adam Schiff became public.
Sample:
This poll is D+11. It is heavily skewed towards Democrats and has a very large Independent sample. We shall see if Democrats are still salting the Independent sample to gaslight this poll.
First, impeachment...
27. Do you think the U.S. House of Representatives should or should not try to impeach President Trump?
| Dem % | Ind % | Rep % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Should try to impeach | 83 | 36 | 11 |
| Should not try to impeach | 8 | 34 | 76 |
28. If the U.S. House of Representatives votes to impeach Donald Trump, do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not remove him from office?
| Dem % | Ind % | Rep % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Should remove from office | 83 | 40 | 13 |
| Should not remove from office | 8 | 33 | 76 |
NOTE: Independents barely support impeachment by +2%. This is movement from the last Quinnipiac poll, where Independents were against impeachment by 50-42. YouGov did not ask the impeachment question in the last poll.
Candidate Popularity
I'm going to summarize "favorable minus unfavorable," "Electable minus unelectable (against Trump)," and "Dem First Choice" into one table.
| Candidate | Dem Fav |
Ind Fav |
Rep Fav |
Dem Beat Trump |
Ind Beat Trump |
Rep Beat Trump |
Dem First Choice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -79 | -9 | 76 | ||||
| Elizabeth Warren | 64 | -12 | -59 | 49 | -16 | -71 | 28 |
| Joe Biden | 38 | -13 | -58 | 56 | -12 | -63 | 23 |
| Bernie Sanders | 42 | -11 | -65 | 33 | -17 | -75 | 13 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 50 | -7 | -43 | 5 | -30 | -74 | 7 |
| Kamala Harris | 42 | -16 | -59 | 17 | -30 | -75 | 6 |
| Beto O'Rourke | 40 | -14 | -56 | 3 | -34 | -75 | 3 |
| Corey Booker | 42 | -12 | -51 | 3 | -32 | -75 | 2 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 30 | -10 | -38 | -8 | -38 | -77 | 2 |
| Andrew Yang | 33 | -5 | -34 | -14 | -32 | -72 | 2 |
| Julian Castro | 31 | -13 | -42 | -10 | -36 | -76 | 1 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0 | -7 | -29 | 1 |
NOTE: Democrats prefer Warren over Biden despite thinking Biden is more electable. Biden is the least objectionable candidate to independents (none are positively favored). Republicans think that Biden has the best chance to beat Trump.
Other Politician Popularity
| Candidate | Dem Fav |
Ind Fav |
Rep Fav |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -79 | -9 | 76 |
| Mike Pence | -63 | -7 | 64 |
| Nancy Pelosi | 53 | -26 | -68 |
| Chuck Schumer | 37 | -26 | -55 |
| Kevin McCarthy | -34 | -11 | 10 |
| Mitch McConnell | -59 | -17 | 24 |
| The Democrat Party | 81 | -29 | -75 |
| The Republican Party | -81 | -18 | 76 |
NOTE: Independents dislike ALL Congressional leaders more than they dislike Trump and Pence. Independents dislike Congressional Republicans less than Democrats. This may bode well for 2020.
Top Issues
Here is a review of the most important issues indicated by these poll respondents:
| Issue | Dem % | Ind % | Rep % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 27 | 16 | 11 |
| Environment | 20 | 13 | 5 |
| Immigration | 5 | 12 | 19 |
| Economy | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| Social Security | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Terrorism | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| Abortion | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| Gun Control | 7 | 6 | 4 |
NOTE: Health Care and the Environment are the top Democrat issues. Immigration and the Economy are the top Republican issues. Health Care and the Economy are the top Independent issues. Abortion is still more important to Republicans than Democrats and Independents.
43. If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
| Vote | Dem % | Ind % | Rep % |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party candidate | 88 | 26 | 6 |
| Donald Trump | 5 | 29 | 83 |
| Won't vote | 2 | 26 | 3 |
NOTE: Independents are still leaning towards President Trump. As many would rather stay home as would vote for the Democrat candidate.
Bottom Line
I'm still concerned about the large Independent sample (and over-sampled Democrats), but the Independents seem to dislike what the Democrats are offering, despite narrowly supporting impeachment (+2%). This leads me to think that this sample is not heavily infiltrated by Democrats.
We will have to see how this changes with polling after the whistleblower story runs its course.
-PJ
we should be so lucky.
Warren + Sanders = 41.
THAT is where the center of the Dem Party lies in 2019.
If Bernie can’t continue and his support goes to her she will be pretty hard to catch.
LOL, D +11?!
That’s insane.
Regarding the DemonShits’ primary, this poll predates Bernine getting the double stents. That’s going to have the same impact on his campaign as getting shot and being forced into a wheelchair had on George Wallace’s presidential ambitions. Paraphrasing him, George said, “People saw that damned wheelchair and they wouldn’t vote for me.”
Most of the Sanders votes will go to Princess Gray Beaver, making her the DemonShit nominee.
It really comes down to two words:
The economy.
True. She will run away with it, especially if Biden collapses, too.
Then it will be a question of "what will Hillary do?"
If Warren makes it to the general election, right now it seems, Wall Street will throw its support to Trump. I think the Independents will break towards Republicans, too.
I wonder, if Warren gets the Bernie and Biden votes, will the House get desperate and radical to sweep Trump from the field over fears of Warren's extreme socialistic policies?
-PJ
The economy was #4 for Democrats, but #2 for both Republicans and Independents.
-PJ
-PJ
Warren has a problem in that she doesn’t attract the minority voters that Bernie does. Maybe it’s the surly Assistant Principal vibe she gives off. Warren will probably beat Biden but she likely won’t inherit all of Bernie’s base.
Warren will really inspire Blacks to vote ...LOL.
PJ, the last part of your post doesn’t make sense to me. If Wall street wont go for Warren (and I presumed Wall Street represents that Biden 22%), how can Warren pick up Biden’s vote? I don’t see how Warren gets more than 40%. Seems like the dems are headed for 1984 all over again.
Polls pfft...Am i reading it wrong or do Dems thing only Biden has a better than. 50% chance of beating Trump. Hilarious! No wonder they want to impeach so badly
Biden is continuing to slip lower.
On day one, I picked Warren to get the nod and Biden to be booted out the door. I thought it would be #Her Turn with two females on the dem ticket. Yeah, not a good idea if they were serious about winning but who said they wanted to win after looking at the group who’s on stage.
Speaking of the dems’ stage, they have yet to pick their ticket and as such their investigation/impeachment/inquiry doesn’t hold water. Trump had no opponent back during the phone call and still doesn’t today.
Let's go to the numbers. "Very Favorable" + "Somewhat Favorable" - "Somewhat Unfavorable" - "Very Unfavorable":
| Candidate | White Fav |
Black Fav |
Hispanic Fav |
Other Fav |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Warren | -9 | 41 | 5 | 2 |
| Joe Biden | -15 | 41 | -8 | -17 |
| Bernie Sanders | -19 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Buttigieg | -2 | 20 | -4 | 6 |
| Kamala Harris | -17 | 22 | -5 | 2 |
| Beto O'Rourke | -31 | 28 | -8 | -13 |
| Corey Booker | -10 | 18 | -10 | -12 |
| Amy Klobuchar | -5 | 12 | -14 | -21 |
| Andrew Yang | -6 | 17 | 10 | 9 |
| Julian Castro | -15 | 18 | 3 | -1 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | -15 | 7 | -4 | -9 |
This is one whacky sample. The white voters don't like ANY of the candidates. Warren and Biden are the top black voter picks, with Sanders right behind.
-PJ
I was going off the news the other day that Wall Street won't support Warren over her wealth tax and banning private health care.
I don't know that she'd pick off Biden's vote (I was quickly replying to another poster). We'd more likely see that 26% of Independent voters who will stay home.
-PJ
Not a better than 50% chance of beating Trump. Just 56% of Democrats think Biden can beat Trump.
-PJ
Roger. PS - Are you still doing the CG’s? Seems like the daily threads are getting smaller.
Who cares? They’re all going to loose to Trump.
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