[nathanbedford]

I believe Warren is more dangerous than Biden for the following reasons:

1. She knows how to debate, she was a tenured law professor at Harvard, that's what they do all day whether before the class teaching by the Socratic method, in the faculty lounge challenging one another, or in preparation for academic articles. She will not lose her cool in debate and she will not lose her train of thought. Biden is likely to go off the rails and to lose himself in the thickets of his dementia. Granted, Trump will be very effective in changing the debate game as he has done so many times in the past. I think Warren will be less vulnerable, although not invulnerable, than Biden when that happens.

2. The whole campaign is not decided by debates, there will be months and months of opportunities for gaffes. Biden makes them every news cycle, Warren tends not to make them.

3. Biden is saddled with the bad as well as the good of the Obama administration. The good is that which appeals to the Democrat base but we have to understand that the Democrat base has moved on. Warren, to the contrary, it's free of Obama taint and she is offering something that the Democrat and independent voters respond to, new ideas. Biden is selling old wine in an old bottle. Warren has fresh plans and fresh ideas, never mind how far left they are, her target electorate does not make those judgments.

4. Warren and Trump are running on parallel appeals, populism. Granted, Warren's populism is vulnerable because it makes no fiscal sense mathematically but Trump is hardly in a position to attack Warren for overspending. Both candidates offer a populism that blames elites while Warren offers big government to cure crony capitalism and Donald Trump offers to "drain the swamp," cut regulation, cut taxes and free up fair market capitalism. Biden's liability is that he is the swamp. Warren can distance herself and play the outsider as she offers a new plan every news cycle.

5. Biden's biography is riddled with deceit and self-dealing. He is a recidivist plagiarist. He is a self-aggrandizing liar, offering stories that are simply ludicrous and liable to be easily disproven. He is tainted by his son's corruption in Ukraine and China. He is a swamp creature personified.

6. Warren speaks the female dialect, she oozes empathy. Her earnestness, whether faked or real, sells and it seems to be very attractive to the critical white, educated, suburban female voter in the decisive battleground states. Biden simply appears as a hack. Despite her age, she looks young and vigorous. Biden creaks.

Certainly, it is too early to come to these conclusions without hedging them with all manner of reservations. Judging from what we know now and certainly subject to change as events unfold, Warren appears to be the more dangerous candidate.

[Dagnabitt]

Good post. Perfect summation of Biden.

[poconopundit]

Some very good thinking here, nathanbedford. Real nice analysis. I especially like the populist parallels between Trump and Warren. So true.

If Warren gets the nomination, we’re in for a heckuva fight. And like you say, “the debate” won’t decide the contest.

The emotional battle will be fierce. In the end, Trump’s advantage will be the strong results he can show. That will make the difference, and your points mean we need to prepare ourselves and not get cocky.

And we must absolutely watch over and protect that ballot box.

[Susquehanna Patriot]

Good summary. Just a couple of thoughts on the negative side of Warren.

Warren’s fake Indian history will be something that will not go away ... best not talk about it now. Living this lie is not some youthful indiscretion - average voter will understand despite her attempt to hide behind her parents, which is very likely another lie. No one seems to ask her why her parents lied to her... for her to open up all applications where she used her fake Indian history. Trump’s tax return for her job and academic applications? Never.

Her far left ideas (like “corporate corruption”) appeal only to hard core left, not to the average person. Won’t be a factor unless to attack her.

Professors have a tendency to exude arrogance. She will display this at the wrong time to the voters who count.

She comes across as angry when shouting about her issues. SHe is very similar to Hillary, just with some slight repackaging and not falling down steps, curbs or wearing blue vision glasses.

But never say never in politics.