Posted on 09/20/2019 1:14:06 AM PDT by Cronos
Boris Johnson has 12 days to set out his Brexit plans to the EU, according to Finland's prime minister.
Antti Rinne said he and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed the UK needed to produce the proposals in writing by the end of September, adding if not, "then it's over".
Finland currently holds the EU's rotating presidency.
A Downing Street source said: "We will continue negotiating and put forward proposals at the appropriate time."
Mr Johnson has said a deal is possible at a crucial summit of EU leaders on 17 October, but he has insisted Brexit will happen by the 31 October deadline, even if a deal is not agreed.
... Mr Johnson has repeatedly refused to reveal details of the proposals in interviews, saying he did not want to negotiate in public.
The EU has continued to criticise the UK for not putting any plans in writing.
Mr Rinnte: "We both agreed that it is now time for Boris Johnson to produce his own proposals in writing - if they exist."
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.com ...
2. The time is running down - this may be Boris' ultimate strategy (as was guessed from the beginning)
3. The only remaining factor is the blame game - who gets blamed for a no-deal Brexit.
I'm going to increase my own guesstimate of the probability of no-deal Brexit to 95% to 99% -- the reasons in my head are: 1. No proposal or sign of a proposed deal has been made by the British government 2. Most of the British government seems to be preparing for the next election, a clear indication of priorities 3. Boris has no hopes of getting a vote from the 48% who voted no to Brexit and he's banking on a quick GE after Brexit and before the repercussions.
So I'm going to go out on the limb and say
> no-deal Brexit on 31 October > the stock markets dip on the 2nd and recover by the 9th. > companies put in their contingency plans for moving out, but this isn't visible for the first 3 to 6 months > the massive inventories that are already in place now will be used over the Christmas shopping period > Boris announces a General Election on Guy Fawkes day - November 5 for an election just before Christmas > Boris wins a slim majority - without a pact with the Brexit party, who fail to win a seat (thanks to FPTP) > January dawns and realization dawns..
Realization of what?
I get the feeling they’re demanding an early look at his proposals solely so they can contemptuously reject them as they have before. If the EU has suddenly decided to extend negotiations, and if they’re doing so in good faith, they can wait ‘til mid-month.
If the EU want to escalate the departure date, let ‘em.
Whoever thought the globalist swamp would give up the U.K so essily was sadly mistaken. Brexit will never happen
Why doesn’t BoJo’s government just state the obvious ...
The UK and NW Europe are so-interconnected that the situation requires a “peaceful transition of power”, there’s too many ordinary people’ lives at stake ...
so the EU will recognize the British Peoples’ decision to leave, on Oct. 31 the UK officially becomes a non-member, but will be allowed to keep the same trade arrangements it now has for another 3-6 months until a new deal with the EU can be reached
Britain also needs time to set up its own bureaucracy to take over the areas that were formerly controlled by the EU, e.g. fisheries
It’s in everyone’s interest to preserve continuity, the EU only jacks itself over if it tries to put the screws to Britain on Nov. 1
EU has to screw Britain as a warning to others who may consider leaving.
It's been a no-deal Brexit from the get-go. That is in the UK's best interests, IMO. It won't take long for the Euro-peeons to figure it out that it was the UK's best option all along and our great President has signaled repeatedly to the UK that they will have no greater trading partner than the United States once they're out of the EU.
F' the EU!
The EU is about to learn a cold, hard lesson that they've not held the cards they thought they did.
Assuming Parliament, currently prorogued, doesn’t succeed in forcing a postponement upon its return next month.
But what will Boris do about the Surrender Bill’s legal requirement that he request an extension from the EU?
Doesn’t have to do anything now, the EU just threw out the schedule.
That died on the Order Paper when Parliament was prorogued.
It can be introduced again after Oct 15 when the new session of Parliament is opened by the Queen.
Remoaners will have like two weeks to push it through and the EU is unlikely to grant an extension even if the PM is forced to ask for one.
A no-deal Brexit is increasingly likely unless the EU is going to make concessions between now and Oct 31.
Boris Johnson knows Brussels needs London more than London needs Brussels.
Nations with many billions of dollars worth of goods and services crossing that border in both directions.
Two nations sharing a border that's crossed,in both directions,every single day in a way that more closely resembles a trip to the grocery store than entering another country...in other words,easily,quickly,"routinely".
But,at the same time,no citizen of either country has an intrinsic right to even *enter* the other,let alone live and work there.
And yet,both being fully sovereign,legislation passed by either country...and decisions made by the courts of either country...are of no importance to citizens of the other.
Brexit is going to happen, there is close to 0 doubt about that. Everyone is fed up with the UK and want them out and Johnson may not give assurances for an extension.
There is 100% certainty Brexit will happen.
The uncertainty is WHEN and what kind.
I still see is as 95% + chance of NO DEAL Brexit on 31 Oct
#1 do note that the EU already “recognized the British parliament’s decision to leave” — they had no choice.
The UK said it was leaving on March 31, 2019. The UK delayed it twice. The decision is and always was the UK’s only
err.. that's what the withdrawal deal -- what you call the "May deal" is about. It outlined the transition period.
Come on, this was already discussed and detailed in the Withdrawal agreement. Have you read that?
Do you mean the actual fishing rights? They were privatised in the 80s and sold to British companies who then sold them to other companies (like the British companies sold Cadbury, MG Austin, Land Rover etc. to foreign companies)
The UK will be responsible for managing the British waters instead of jointly managing it (and France, Spain etc. waters) - note that the common fisheries commission had many Brits on it as well
However, post Brexit the UK government as Gove said that the UK does not have the capacity to catch and process all the fish in British waters and thus boats from EU nations would have continued access post-Brexit.
The thing is - I don’t see any posters here detailing where exactly Britain is “getting screwed” — there are vague notes about
1. the irish backstop - but this is to keep ireland without borders as per the 1997 good friday agreement
2. about paying for Farage and other’s pensions as well as completely the projects for this 7 year budget cycle (2014-2021) that the UK agreed to in 2013.
Could either of you list out where Britain is “getting screwed”?
Parliament would need to muster a majority to tell Boris to go and beg for an extension.
Boris then can either do it or resign. If he resigns, he’s the caretaker PM
If the UK does go back to ask for an extension for the THIRD time, they need to provide solid proof of what they want that extension for - just saying “we’ll run another referendum” won’t cut it as
1. the eu is fed up with them and wants the uk to leave already as the uk already said it would do, in March
2. the referendum will be split again - a mere 52% either way doesn’t end the turmoil.
3. a new general election will give a split result and won’t handle the fact that at least 37% of the UK electorate want to leave.
No, Brexit is going to happen - and in my opinion October 31 will be the day.
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