Posted on 09/07/2019 8:26:24 AM PDT by RummyChick
It’s one of those situations where we will never know. The sustained north winds into Freeport was a perfect funnel of water bringing in 20-30’ of surge. Same thing for Marsh Harbor to the east.
sublime
It really depends on the synoptic situation and where the break in the ridge is forecasted to occur.
If the break in the ridge is going to occur over the CONUS - then we are talking 5% because we have tons of data over land. IF we are talking eastern Atlantic than 30% perhaps because we have zero data - but we have a dominant ridge there.
If we are talking east coast and the fall when we start getting trofs moving over the area more frequently - then we can get a 50% error because we have 1) no data over the oceans other than Bermuda and 2) we are in a transition season.
So - it can be a nightmare. To top it off - the NHC wants to have the SMALLEST error as possible on their forecasts. Now - you may think - well - DUH - that's what EVERYONE wants - but that is not ALWAYS the best forecast.
For example - they usually ALWAYS split the model difference - they will forecast a model blend, rather than stick to a "model of choice" - because simply - over the years it's been proven that that has better odds of being closer. But - it's not always GOOD for emergency managers.
Back several years ago the Euro model and its ensembles were taking a hurricane into Florida and the GFS (and its group) was taking a storm into Mexico. It all depended on whether a trof would come and pick it up (Euro) or not (GFS). The one thing is WOULD NOT DO was go straight to the NW into Lousiana...which was the consensus of the model tracks.
SO - what did the NHC do? You guessed it. They put out a track taking it into NOLA...and we have to start evacuation procedures for NOLA! KNOWING it wouldn't go there and that that was the one place it would NOT go. Try explaining THAT to Janet Napolitano.
If you look at the picture of Trump holding the map with the black line extension, the cone included Tallahassee. A lot closer to the border with Alabama than you show.
What would have been funny is if someone drew a hockey stick shape over Alabama and call it the Michael Mann track.
AGAIN-one more time-there are TWO different issues here. The MAP is from a picture on the 29th. The tweet in question where he talked about Alabama was at about 7:30 on the 1st. The Tweet from the Birmingham NWO saying “no, Alabama isn’t in danger” was at about 11 on the 1st. That is what my maps address. It’s not that hard.
Honestly, it sounds like a bunch of Freepers are just like the media. They are confused as well and aren’t really sure just actually what happened or when it happened.
Yeah, the media does not show jack when it counts.
It all depends on times reported. The one when Dorian was south of Puerto Rico has a probability as far west as Louisiana. Katrina all over again!
NOpe - and they certainly are exploiting this - of that, I am not arguing either. They are purposefully misreporting it. But - it would have been a whole lot easier for Trump to have just thrown his briefer under the bus. Who cares if he was a 4-star. I certainly don't.
In the Mary Tyler Moore show, Bill Kurtix (played by Ted Baxter) is the recipient of practical jokes from Murray.
here have been waves of spoofing and pretexting and other games since them.
One wonders in the cases of Trump, Biden, Warren and others if sophmoric practical jokers are not busy.
I understand your perspective as a former member of that profession, but I can assure you that the Daily Mail and CNN, and other media outlets couldn't care less about the internal feelings and politics of groups within a bureaucracy like NOAA and NWS. The only reason this material is being aired is to attack President Trump.
And the article is intended to do just that. The NWS team involved needs to learn about politics in the modern era.
The NWS forecasts for yesterday and today here in New England were totally wrong, based on a misperception of the location and effect of Dorian. The forecasts just aren't as good as NWS would like everyone to believe in a lot of weather circumstances.
I haven't disagreed with that for sure. I have pointed that fact out (with malice) with some of my liberal Facebook friends. They posted a CNN article and gloated - and I pointed out the very simple facts of the picture - that on the 29th a SEVEN day forecast (which only high ranking members of the government have access to) did exaclty what Trump's pic said - on the 29th.
I also told them that all of the facts of the story were available - IF the media cared to actually research it and not just hurt Trump. But of course - that wasn't their agenda.
And that is just my concern: what are the facts. I'm not here as a scientist to protect Trump's reputation or defend the media either. What were the facts at the time. Some have missed that. They are more concerned with their own bias. I just want the facts of the matter to prevail.
IMHO, come December 1, 2019 all employees at NOAA and NWS should be fired because they and their computer models don’t have a clue about what is steering a storm and where it will go, just guessing! Has any of them said what caused Dorian to stop dead in it’s track? No! because they didn’t know.
I predicted Dorian would take the path it did and I based my prediction on the two low pressure systems that formed down there earlier this summer and were forecast to go into southern Fla. and travel north all the way up the state. Neither system did that as forecast, both turned northward and traveled far (50-60 miles) east of Fla. same as Dorian.
So here we have three different systems taking the same exact path that was never in any computer models until after they turned which was too late for the people in Fla. that had evacuated.
What stopped Dorian in it’s westward track? Did it run smack into a suddenly developed high pressure ridge? Wouldn’t that take it southwest across the Fla. keys?
Bottom line is that a lot of money is spent and a lot of people have cushy government jobs for what?
There is probably some subtle inside the business detail which to a meteorologist makes the statement "Alabama will NOT see any impacts from Dorian" consistent with a map issued on the same day showing a 5 to 10% probability of tropical storm force winds.
Since Trump retweeted this chart, it seems like the debate about what he said is whether the low probability bands shown by NWS should be omitted from their charts, or if a 10% risk of something happening is equivalent to "will not happen".
The NWS employee who made the tweet about no effect should have said something like "the risk is low based on our latest models which show only a 10% chance of tropical force winds"
In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 1, 2019
Are you being stupid by accident, or deliberately?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.