Posted on 09/07/2019 8:26:24 AM PDT by RummyChick
LMAO
THANKS!!!
What happened to the Bahamas is what the media wanted to happen to the Mar-a-Lago area.
Has the media been fair to Trump over this? ABSOLUTELY NOT. But it is ALSO not fair of NOAA to throw the forecaster who tweeted this statement under the bus as well because it is 1005 correct based on every shread of 1) evidence and model data and 2) Every official product from the NHC.
The uncertainty levels are still far too high to blow off the chance from a risk management perspective.
Downside to prepare? Very little. Downside if not prepared? Huge. Any risk manager is going to say yes if you’re in Alabama you take basic preps for that Cat 5 headed in your direction, even if the odds are high it will turn away.
The logistics of disaster preparation are an exercise in risk management, whereas forecasting is not.
If you were in Puerto Rico and listened to the forecasters, you got a false alarm. Not one forecast put Dorian east of PR, yet there it went anyway.
It's not as if a linear extrapolation of a weather chart is unreasonable. It may be wrong, but it's within the realm of possibilities.
(I don't wish harm to anyone, but it's ironic that after the ex-Canadian PM wished for it to hit Mar-a-Lago, it turned right at Mar-a-Lago and headed for Canada.)
NOAA is saying the Birmingham WFO was mistaken. They were not. Trump CLEARLY says on 1 Sept at 7:51 that Alabama will mostly likely be hit "much harder than anticipated." This is after Alabama EM officials had been already been given the all clear. Now they are hearing something different. The WFO simply corrects that. That's their job.
Listen - I did this job for 32 years. I did this EXACT job. I was a professional met working with FEMA, helping decision-makers and CAT members make decisions. From a risk management perspective, it is EXACLTY appropriate. I still listen into the conference calls with the NHC even though I am retired. I know what is being said and what the states are being briefed. Alabama was not being briefed by ANY sane forecaster that there was a threat on the 1st of September. NONE. Even a first-year meteorology student would have given the all-clear. Again - I did this EXACT job for 32 years - eventually doing it for NORTHCOM, FEMA and DHS and interacting with every agency from counties to the national command authority. I know what happens and how it happens. People don't just waste money and keep their EOCs operational for the heck of it (unless they have a bunch of money left over in their FY budgets and need to burn it - then that's a different story). Guys don't like working mid-shifts if they don't have to.
As far as Dorian and PR - Tropical Storm warning went out true - but that happens often on weak - sheared storms in the eastern Caribbean.
A Cat 5 in deep flow with an approaching and low model spread and a weak sheared TS in the eastern Caribbean steered by low-level flow are two totally different animals.
PAY ATTENTION.
I was following Dorian since before it crossed the Virgin Islands. Before it was a Cat 5 with its eyewall sitting on Grand Bahama Island for 40 hours, cross-Florida scenarios were still in play.
I believe the number of forecasts that had it sitting with its eyewall on top of that island for 40 hours were zero.
This whole thing is beyond stupid. Forecasts have confidence levels. Current levels of accuracy are low enough that the forecast from one day can flatly contradict the forecast from the next, and that’s precisely what happened in this case.
This was a gotcha trap. The briefing which included Alabama was made from the previous forecast that included Alabama, and they handed him an updated forecast which didn’t, probably without even telling him about the change regarding Alabama in particular.
The idea that he randomly decided to add a hurricane watch area on his own is ludicrous.
There seems to be some sort of implication that we should have a religious faith in forecasts, but the forecasters themselves make very very clear that we should not. And in the case of Dorian in particular, the phrase “higher than usual levels of uncertainty” was bandied about quite a bit.
Again - the problem is NOT with the maps and track from the 29th. The PROBLEM is with Trumps tweet from the 1st where he said Alamaba “will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated.” The Birmingham WFO said that was not the case three hours later and NOAA said they were wrong. THAT is what meteorologists are up in arms about - the stuff on the FIRST...NOT the 29th. The Tweet from Trump on the FIRST mentioning Alabama is factually not correct - and Birmingham NWS saying there are NO impacts from Dorian IS correct - and NOAA saying they shouldn’t have Tweeted that is just plain wrong.
We don’t give a F*CK.
Go tell it to cnn
So based on your map, it would appear the president failed to properly warn the good folks of Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas,Tennessee and Kentucky in his Sunday morning tweet. What do you think he has against those states?
Who cares about truth - or FACTS. That's what the left does. Congrats. YOU are them.
Take your incessant whining to cnn.
The place for you is Mediaite.com
I like being honest. I like integrity. I guess you have a moral vacancy. That’s on you. True conservatism has morality attached to it. Change your Freeper name - because being intellectually dishonest isn’t conservative. You can dress it any way you want - but being a liar is still just a liar...be it CNN or whoever.
The context matters. He wasn’t issuing orders to the government folks, he was talking to the people. The Aug 31st forecasts did have Alabama on it, and it’s not some huge scandal that his remarks were prepared from the previous day’s forecast. So if you were in coastal or eastern Alabama, preliminary storm prep for the average citizen - take inventory, make sure basics are on hand, make contingency plans - was absolutely appropriate, common sense measure. It’s not like there aren’t going to be any more storms, and it’s not like anybody ordered an evacuation - the hysteria level is insensible.
This was the first storm of the season, so it’s the time when citizen preparation is likely lowest. The “downside” scenario to people taking his “bad” advice is that they’re more prepared for a storm. People wailing about it like it’s some sort of war crime are at Red Queen levels of crazy.
I did prep here and this location never got out of the 20% TS band either. It just makes sense. When the next storm comes I already know what needs to be done.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.