Posted on 09/06/2019 10:20:42 PM PDT by Synthesist
From Wednesday, August 28, through Monday, September 2, the information provided by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center to President Trump and the wider public demonstrated that tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama. This is clearly demonstrated in Hurricane Advisories #15 through #41, which can be viewed at the following link.
The Birmingham National Weather Service’s Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time.
You don't get to decide that. And when you have an official forecast from a WFO putting out one thing that the public and EMOs are supposed to follow - yet officials are now saying something else - well - there is a conflict.
I worked that for 32 years - at the highest level (at NORTHCOM and for the NCA). I worked with the NHC and I worked with DHS to deconflict all the mess that comes when some official says one thing when the NHC is saying another.
IT'S A FREAKING NIGHTMARE. I worked Pam in 2004 - which was the exercise of the Cat 5 into NOLA where we drew up the battle plans that failed for Katrina. Then I watched Max Mayfield beg Nagin to evacuate. Then I watched miscommunication between agencies in that whole thing...and not just that incidence but through y entire career - between hurricanes and nukedet exercises.
We can't have people making mistakes or mishearing communications...at any level.
And if I had a $ for every time THAT happened in my career I wouldn't need my pension! It happened all the time...and when the bosses got CNN/FOX and the weather channel - it got 10X worse because then EVERYONE thought they were an expert...and it fouled everything up all the time. I had "Trump" situations almost weekly with the 4 star or his cheif of staff.
Official Forcasts should not be sent out in Twitter only.
I only hear about Tweets second hand and certainly don’t get my gov’t NWS info there,
Twitter is currently un-American and needs to be deplatformed from itself, ‘cept for the entertaining Trump Tweets.
See post #11.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3777093/posts?page=1
Viking2002 posted there:
As a storm spotter for the Birmingham office, I can tell you factually that the Birmingham meteorologists are recalcitrant to the point of inaction when a major event occurs down here. They seem to absolutely refuse to coordinate their synoptic forecasts with the adjacent field offices in Mobile, Huntsville, Peachtree City, and Nashville. I’ve seen many times where there are large regional watches and advisories issued, and Birmingham sits on its hands and there is nothing as much as a hazardous weather outlook on their map for the CWA. In fact, it’s common practice for them to raise and revise a weather event only after it’s in progress. As of this time last week, the projected path of Dorian, as well as all of the blended global computer models, did, in fact have the median path of Dorian bisecting the Florida peninsula east-west, and probably emerging in the Gulf before making it’s anticipated north/northeast turn, with a variable of a few hundred miles to either side of that track. What Trump pointed out was based on the best data available for a very tricky storm several days out. I studied meteorology and ocean sciences in college; I’ve been field trained - by the National Weather Service - to read a weather map and know what I’m looking at. What we’re looking at here are careerist global whining bureaucrats and media talking heads trying to gin up a non-story to make Trump look like he out-gaffed Biden. It was not only a dick move, weak and badly planned, but the facts are so undeniable, it blew up in their faces like a rigged cigar.
Fascinatng behind the scenes info. Thanks, N111.
this information was easily accessible by the media - it was public information. The reports were intentionally false - either they knew full well the reports were false and found the information, or they simply decided to report it was false without doing any basic research simply because President Trump said it and they wanted to create another negative news story for the sake of doing so. In either case, the reports were lies. Just another example of fake news.
Bump
All contradicted by an *official* NOAA statement, including contemporaneous predicted storm impact forecasts to backup the statement.
Another liar. McNoldy is a Washington Post contributor, part of the fake news attack on Trump.
Not correct. You don't have to lay anything next to anything. Just look at the official forecast for Storm Force Wind Arrival: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=most_likely_toa_no_wsp_34 There's a sliver of Alabama in the forecast through Sep 1. even after the forecast was for the storm to turn and go north.
And in your previous post you claim Alabama was 200 miles outside the wind probability map. Who cares about Cuba. Give it up.
This seems like an extraordinary step due to the ginned up drama. It makes me wonder what happens during regular activities...like should statements like this be made about local offices but aren’t normally done
Why didnt they do this sooner..maybe they felt that since people were bringing up it was a criminal act..which would lead to more impeachment talk..that they had to speak up
You have completely misunderstood my post. I said, to re-word it with the same meaning, that NOAA’s statement was directed at the tweeter at the Birmingham NWS Office, therefor NOAA was not throwing the entire NWS “under the bus”. That was the nonsense: “ENTIRE”.
As for the graphs, at the time Pres. Trump sent out his tweet, I think most people looking at the wind speed probability chart then on the NHC webpage would have interpreted it to mean there was still some chance of damaging winds in a bit of AL. Given some of the surprises (even to some fairly knowledgeable people) the storm produced, err on the side of caution.
Also.... Sunday morning, Dorian was about 72 hours from an impact on AL if any would have occurred (assuming the same ~72 hrs. Dorian actually took to get that far North). What is the error in miles of the 5 most erroneous TS force windfield (edge of) track projections recorded, 72 hours out? (As a prof. Met, I expect you to have this info. at your fingertips. Hahaha.)
In truth, I regard both NHC and NWS very well. The variables & complexities they deal with can be mind-boggling, and yet their forecasts are usually good. But, the variables ARE variables and don’t always behave. In the last few weeks I’ve gone out to a complete overcast that lasted a couple hours longer, when our NWS Office forecast said “clear” (actually the hourly weather graph showed something around 5% cloud cover and diminishing). No major fronts were going through late / early, or anything like that. Instead, it turned out a trough / disturbance developed that was unexpected.
The next little(?) trough was much more fun: At most scattered light showers and a few isolated garden variety T-storms were predicted: Some areas “might” get .2” rain. 20% chance. That was not even 6 hrs. out. Instead a line of heavy storms, some generating severe warnings, roared through the entire area. Luckily, most damage was minimal. I measured 3” of rain in an hour.
Now, I think the President probably erred by lumping in AL as “likely” with the Carolinas. Or, he got old info. But, 72 hours out, and ZERO chance? Gotta take that one with a grain of salt, too. You Mets just are not THAT good. It’s Observational Data. Sorry.
On reflection, it seems to me that most NWS forecasters would have recognized that the President had a graph (pre-Sharpie or not) that was a bit “old”, in a dynamic situation. A little wisdom, not to mention respect, would have lead to a statement / tweet more like:
“11 am update: It appears the threat to (describe appropriate area, or, “our Forecast Area”, if appropriate) from Dorian has diminished. Please check the NHC page for Dorian (link), or if in the SE US, your NWS local forecast page (link) for the latest information.”
Then confront NOAA through established channels and ask why is the President getting old information? This instead of using the opportunity to take a swipe at the President at the same time lives may be becoming at risk on the East Coast. The real issue is that of the President not getting the most current information possible, in such a situation.
The fact that they're 80% wrong has nothing to do with lack of confidence and mistrust? Of course not!
If it's that bad, then this presents an opportunity for Trump. Next Tweet on the subject: "I've been getting some flak about Dorian, but that's ok, because this situation has revealed some communications problems of many years' standing... And I am going to see they get fixed!" Then do it.
More haters and mentally ill TDS potential mass shooters rooted out. Red flag, fire, track. (Not really but that’s what the left wants to do)
All this fuss about extending the cone out 1 day from people that tell us what the temperature is going to be in 80 years.
This shows you don't know what YOU are talking about. The ERA is NOT the wind map. The ERA is the worst probability map. That's why Cuba was on the ERA map at that time but also NOT EVER in the wind field. If you knew what you were talking about you would knew this.
But you don't -so - you don't. Instead - you just look pretty ignorant.
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