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Posted on 08/28/2019 1:34:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.
Satellite Imagery Dorian
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)
Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay
Reading this thread, thank you NN.
Watching this
and this
Got almost everything on our list. Store was out of regular bread (got cinnamon Pepperidge Farm) and saltines (have a half full box). Stay safe, everybody.
I must be in the 10% who do read an entire post, but I do get your point. I still appreciated the graphic, because it shows how close, yet how wrong, predictions/forecasts are even in the few days leading up to an event like a hurricane.
If it's too slow it can't hit as cat 4, probably not even cat 3. Michael was moving 14 mph (and speeding up) at landfall. Anything less than 10 mph means the storm ingests dry air from land and churns up some cooler water.
Rest assured, many of us are hoping that model trend continues...
All this hype and the storm may not even make landfall. Wow!
Harvey landed at 8mph so slower hurricanes can still be strong (and strengthening)
Absolutely true.
It’s not about hype... it’s about public awareness and readiness (well... for most reputable media outlets).
Latest spaghetti models show the storm jogging north as it reaches the east coast of Florida. Hoping it does!
Wow, you are educating me on olde Florida citrus family turned musical lore. I wasn’t aware that Gram Parsons had a Snively mother. I lived in Winter Haven for a few years when I was a kid. Knew a Snively some, but not well. I was just a kid. When you’re a kid, everybody’s the same, rich, poor. etc, At least that was how I viewed it, even back then. We were just kids that went to school together and played together after school if our parents deemed it was ok. It was a mystery to me back then. If my parents were alive, I could ask them about it all. Maybe my older siblings could fill me in.
Summary Of 1100 PM EDT...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 545 MI E of West Palm Beach FL
About 375 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
Max Sustained Winds...140 MPH...
Moving...WNW at 10 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...948 MB...
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 mi.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Clewiston ain’t in Lee County
A question for anyone who knows:
If a structure is rated to survive a given Category hurricane, say, a Cat 3, what length of time of the battering is assumed?
| Watching an extended stream that is giving lots of good information, AgendaFreeTV. Steve Lookner is the broadcaster and will probably be on the air on YouTube and Periscope throughout this storm. Steve is a former writer for SNL, Seinfeld, MadTV and other popular shows. He does it alone in his studio with few breaks for food or any other reason and is very conscientious about research and accuracy. |
Just to indicate the difficulty in forecasting these systems, I was looking at a system presently in the Midwest, and came across this from the NWS Office @ Paducah, KY:
Reasonably high confidence continues for a generally dry forecast throughout much of the short term, with seasonably warm temperatures. Main exception come with a pesky trof that has developed over the MS River Valley region, between two mid/upper level high pressure systems off to the east and west of the trof. Ironically, this is the same weakness that is likely to play havoc with the eventual track of hurricane Dorian early next week.
I know that. I haven’t mentioned Clewiston in any of my posts.
“Illustrate” would be a better word than “indicate” in my above post...
:-)
“Latest spaghetti models show the storm jogging north as it reaches the east coast of Florida. Hoping it does!”
The wife and I were just watching the Weather Channel. Based upon the 11Pm report, they see three possible tracks...
1. It makes landfall and travels northward up the middle of the Florida peninsula.
2. It makes landfall (well, kinda of) and moves northward along the east coast.
3. It doesn’t make landfall and parallels the coast off-shore.
The trouble of it being parallel to the coast......
.....This is a monster ‘cane
I stayed through a Cat 1 which was off shore
Still got hurricane winds.......popping transformers and tornadoes!
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